Michigan Wolverines (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Date/Time: Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 10:15PM EST
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MICH +5.5/KSU-5.5
Over/Under Total: 54.5
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In the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl on December 28, the Michigan Wolverines take on the Kansas State Wildcats at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. After a promising 5-0 start, Michigan was certainly hoping to do better than end up in a bowl game named after chicken. Kansas State, meanwhile, overcame a 2-4 start to win 5 of their last 6 to finish the season strongly. It’s a tale of teams headed in different directions. Coincidentally, both teams are both 7-5 straight-up and against-the-spread.
At one point a top-ten team, Michigan has really bottomed-out to end the year losing 5 out of 7. They also lost 5 of their last 7 conference games and that in a Big Ten that wasn’t exactly brimming with great teams this season. Sure, they showed pluck by nearly beating Ohio State in their yearly tilt, a 2-point conversion away from winning the game. Still, any way you want to cut it, it’s been a tough 2013 for Big Blue.
Whereas Michigan sort of flopped into this bowl game, Kansas State soared to this point, winning 5 out of 6 games. They looked exceptionally ragged after a 2-4 start that included a loss to North Dakota State. Coach Snyder then whipped this group into shape and soon they were beating conference opponents left and right. Since October 12, the Wildcats have only lost to 10-win Oklahoma. They have a nice combo at running back with John Hubert and Daniel Sams. In their last game, a 31-10 win over in-state rival Kansas, Hubert rushed for 220 yards. He can be a real workhorse. QB Jake Waters can be erratic and hasn’t had his best performances lately, but he is able to win games in other ways when he’s not clicking with his receivers. He has a big-time receiver in Tyler Lockett, who had 278 yards receiving in the Oklahoma loss. Lockett is also a dangerous return guy. Waters has also run for 6 touchdowns.
Some of what got people excited about Michigan in the first place, offensively at least, were evident in their last game against the Buckeyes. QB Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and they were able to run the ball at least a little bit. But by in large, the run game for Michigan has stalled out. There have been games where they get almost nothing on the ground. And while Gardner has a lot of talent as a passer, he hasn’t really shined in the role of the offense running exclusively through him. He hasn’t really become much more refined as a pocket passer. There is a lack of deception in his overall game. His miscues have begun to mount, though it certainly isn’t all his fault. While the Wolverines have a stud left tackle in Taylor Lewan, the rest of the line has really been atrocious. It has caused Gardner problems, while rendering the Michigan run-game moot. UDPATE: Devin Gardner is OUT for this game.
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If Michigan continues making mistakes on offense, Kansas State is not a team you want to be facing. a Bill Snyder-coached team, if anything, is always adept at capitalizing fully on the mistakes of their opponents. The KSU “D” is opportunistic. The defense is a young one, but one that has matured this season. And don’t think that having a bunch of extra time to get ready won’t help this defense even more. As a team, the Wildcats may lack the flash of Michigan. but they are more efficient and less mistake-prone. That could go a long way in the event that Michigan makes some missteps.
A lot of this game comes down to which Devin Gardner shows up for Michigan or more simply, which Wolverines offense shows up. The offense that materialized against Ohio State would be a lot for Kansas State to deal with--probably too much. But that offense we saw hasn’t been what we have been seeing for the most part out of Michigan in the last month of the season. For the most part, they had trouble gaining any foothold late in the season. Was their showing against Ohio State a sign of a rekindled offense or a byproduct of playing the biggest game of the year in a spoiler/redemption-driven sort of game? They were really up for that game. It’s just that maybe the Ohio State rivalry means more to Michigan than a Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl game against a team they have no connection to in Kansas State.
We need to wrap our heads around the fact that Michigan just isn’t very good. Even as they went to 5-0 to open the season, they nearly lost to really bad teams like Akron and Connecticut. In other words, they weren’t that far off from being downright bad. I think the extra time will help Michigan, especially with Gardner, who has been plagued with a case of turf-toe. With Kansas State playing better and perhaps more enthusiastic to play in this bowl, I tend to think they get the job done here.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points.
