Mississippi Rebels (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7PM EST
Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: MISS -7.5/ARK +7.5
Over/Under Total: 65.5
The Mississippi Rebels face the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday in key SEC action from Fayetteville. Ole Miss is looking to get on a roll after some rocky moments this season where they showed their explosiveness, while also showcasing a knack for letting their opponents be explosive. Consecutive wins over Georgia and Memphis have steadied the ship and they hope they're in a groove, as they prepare to visit a dangerous Arkansas bunch that came up short, 49-30, to the top-rated Crimson Tide on Saturday. A win here at home against the high-octane Rebels would get the Razorbacks feeling good again.
Ole Miss has experienced a lot on the young season. It's not clear if any of it compares to the battle-royale these two teams put on last season. Back and forth it went, as both teams traded scores all day. It went to overtime. Ole Miss scored a TD, with Arkansas answering with a TD and a gutsy two-point conversion that sealed the 53-52 win. Chad Kelly was on fire for Ole Miss in a losing effort, passing for 368 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for 110 yards and three touchdowns. But with over 600 yards of total offense, the Razorbacks were able take advantage of the Rebels' defense. That's been a problem of massive proportions this season for the explosive Rebels.
Ole Miss could be sitting pretty if their defense were even remotely able to hold up their end of the deal. And the frustrating part of it is that there were times against Florida State and Alabama when this defense played well. Against the Seminoles, they led 28-6 and lost by 11. They followed that up with what looked like a golden opportunity against top-ranked Alabama, leading 24-3, before eventually falling behind 48-30, before going on a late spurt. And even against Memphis, they outmanned their opponent, but still gave up almost 500 yards in offense. Maybe with the week off after the Memphis game, the Ole Miss coaching staff was able to figure some stuff out, otherwise they risk wasting what is a really electric offense.
Kelly is going to have this team in most games with his big arm, useful legs, and overall winning spirit. He has thrown for 1596 yards and 13 TDs already. There is a lot of room in this offense for a lot of different players to be productive. Akeem Judd and Eugene Brazley, along with Kelly, carry the load in the running-game. Through the air, Kelly continues to cultivate a connection with Evan Engram and Damore'a Stringfellow. Add in Van Jefferson, AJ Brown, and Quincy Abeboyejo, and there are a lot of weapons at Kelly's disposal. After four straight games at home, the Rebels now take to the road. It won't be easy.
Arkansas shouldn't hang their heads over their inability to beat Texas A&M or Alabama, a very good team and a defending number-one team. Maybe they didn't get over the hump necessarily, but they didn't lose to just anybody. They were never really in it against Alabama, though they were at least able to keep it from being a massacre. Austin Allen threw for 400 yards against the best team in the country. The run-game didn't really fire, as it seldom does against the Tide, but Allen was able to air it out. Jared Cornelius continues to shine at receiver, as he had 146 yards receiving. Another good receiver, Keon Hatcher, snagged two touchdown passes, with big tight end Jeremy Sprinkle adding another. At the end of the day, mistakes proved to be costly. Allen threw three picks while losing a fumble, which proved critical against the always-capitalizing Alabama defense. And the Razorbacks face major issues with their offensive line.
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The problem with Arkansas is a lack of a premier SEC defense and that they're sometimes manhandled on both sides of the line of scrimmage. And by "not premier," that doesn't mean bad. If only bad defenses gave up a lot of points to Alabama and Texas A&M, then there'd be nothing but bad defenses. Despite not having their best day against the Razorbacks, they are still a playmaking group that gets turnovers and scores points from time to time. But when it comes to facing explosive offenses, it doesn't get much more on-fire than the high-flying Rebels group. While it's easy to picture Arkansas getting on the scoreboard a lot, the "D" can't afford to allow an Ole Miss free-for-all.
On one hand, Ole Miss is having to come to Fayetteville, a place where the Razorbacks are just that much more dangerous. By the same token, Arkansas is coming off a punishing game against the best team in the nation. Ole Miss had last week off and some of that could resonate in this game. Not that it will, but it might. Arkansas may have fallen to A&M and Alabama with a bit more ease than suspected. This might be a different proposition, however, with the Rebels a lot more vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball. I see that being enough to help the Razorbacks cover the spread.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Arkansas Razorbacks plus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Rebels vs. Razorbacks game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
