Mississippi Rebels (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Monday, September 5, 2016 at 5PM EST
Where: Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MISS +5/FSU -5
Over/Under Total: 57
The Ole Miss Rebels face the Florida State Seminoles at the Citrus Bowl in key week one action. Both teams were 10-3 last season, but hunger for more. At the same time, both teams have a lot of questions to answer across all areas of play. The game is in Florida, but it's still a 4 hour drive for Florida State, making it pretty close to a true neutral-site game, though the locale still favors FSU. Which team can kick off their 2016 campaign with a huge win?
The Seminoles were unbeaten at home last season. Even though they lost 3 games last season, they are still 58-6 in the past 5 seasons and have again become one of college football's most-dependable winners. There are issues, but all the earmarks point to another strong season for the 'Noles. Mississippi was 8-5 last season against the spread and beat Alabama and Ohio State, though they lost to Arkansas and Memphis. Chad Kelly was a revelation at quarterback, but their "D" was snake-bitten with injuries and couldn't keep pace. A lot of talent departed from that group and this season will be a true test of head coach Hugh Freeze's recruiting and leadership abilities. Perhaps they will be galvanized by the media crucifixion in the offseason, but the personnel losses are daunting. Even so, they have as much talent on that sideline as just about any program in the nation.
The Ole Miss offense does feature a burgeoning talent in Kelly, who be working with proven talent like TE Evan Engram in the aerial game, with nice receivers Quincy Adeboyejo, Damore'ea Stringfellow, and Markell Pack. That part of the game should be good. But without a featured back, this offense could be a bit one-dimensional. And even if a pair of legs is found before the season, that unproven player will need to make it happen behind a line that lost a lot more than just Laremy Tunsil. Guards Javon Patterson and Rod Taylor are the only linemen with experience returning, leaving a ton of question marks.
The Rebels have more optimism on the other side of the ball, with the "D" looking like it could be a more-consistent group than last season. They did lose Robert Nkemdiche from that line, but Marquis Haynes had ten sacks last season, while Breeland Speaks is a rising star on the inside. Add in Fadol Brown, DJ Jones, and Isaac Gross returning from injury, this could be a good cornerstone for this unit. The middle features DeMarquis Gates and Terry Caldwell. Getting Tony Conner back at safety would boost this secondary immeasurably. Look for safety CJ Hampton and corners Ken Webster and Tony Bridges to round out a good secondary that should benefit from good play up-front. On one hand, a lot of questions need to be answered, but there's too much talent for most of them to not be answered in the affirmative.
Florida State quarterback Sean Maguire would be a safe choice to earn QB duties, but it's too early as of press time to rule out Deondre Francois. And with a foot injury suffered in practice, it looks like it will be Francois at least for the opener. Francois will have proven weaponry upon which they can rely. Aerially, viable targets like Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield, and Jesus Wilson remain, along with TE Ryan Izzo. A young star could develop. But the real deal is on the ground, with Dalvin Cook looking to show why a lot of people consider him to be one of the game's biggest talents. RB Jacques Patrick should also get some touches and he can become a difference-maker. Making it all stick could be a line that returns all five starters. It's really a perfect situation in which to work in a new full-time quarterback.
FSU's 19th-ranked unit in 2015 returns with 6 starters with a lot of guys who got some experience last season. This line could really round into a dynamite group with top defensive ends Josh Sweat and DeMarcus Walker. Derrick Nnadi and DeMarcus Christmas should be robust in the middle. Linebacking is a bit of an issue with Ro'Derrick Hoskins and Jacob Pugh looking for a running mate to make this group more of a positive factor. Corners Marquez White, Tavarus McFadden, and Calvin Brewton, with safeties Trey Marshall and Derwin James makes this secondary a top group that should get better. We'll see if they stop the run like they did last season, but they're pretty loaded up on "D."
In summary, Florida St. might have less questions to answer overall, though the QB edge obviously goes to Ole Miss. Both teams have ample talent to fill any voids, but the Seminoles might have less overall gaps to fill. With Ole Miss, more of a leap of faith is required, but at least you're in good hands with coach Freeze and a roster packed with talent. He didn't get to be where he is as the guy responsible for putting Ole Miss back on the map by not recruiting well or by not getting more out of a situation than what is suggested on paper.
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A lot of that applies to the other side of the field with Jimbo Fisher's squad. Fisher and his staff have proven to be astute appraisers of talent and while they might not have a Jameis Winston-level talent at QB to lead them back to the Promised Land, they look to have assembled quite a team for 2016. They have the most compelling player on the field with Cook and are loaded on both sides of the ball.
This appears to be a really tough entrance exam for both teams, but particularly a Mississippi offense that is still figuring out things. If you had to draw it up as an Ole Miss fan, you'd like to see this offense find its legs and develop some playmakers and overall confidence by playing some lay-up teams. A good Florida St. defense is a rough place to start. I see Ole Miss' defense, which knows it will be depended on heavily this season, giving the FSU offense a hard time, but I see the 'Noles getting a tiny bit of separation late. I'm taking Florida State to cover.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Florida State Seminoles minus 5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
