Missouri Tigers (11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS)
College Football Week 15
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 4PM EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MIZZ +2/AUB -2
Over/Under Total: 58
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The 2013 SEC Championship features the Missouri Tigers facing the Auburn Tigers in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. These 11-1 teams have shocked everyone in college football by getting to this position. The odds that this would be the SEC Championship were long indeed. Neither team even got into a bowl game last season. Missouri was 5-7 last year and Auburn was 3-9 and didn’t even win a game in-conference.
Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel and Auburn’s Gus Malzahn are both in contention for Coach of the Year. First-year coach Malzahn has stewarded the greatest turnaround in SEC history, taking a program that had suddenly grown dysfunctional and immediately revamping them back to their former glory. On Saturday, they beat top-ranked Alabama on a final play that was one of the most remarkable in recent memory. It was a shocking win that gave Auburn the icing on the cake for what has been a stunning reversal of form.
In addition to no one picking either of these teams to make it to this game, it seemed there was no way that the winner of this game wouldn’t be one half of the BCS Championship Game. But it looks like that will be the case, with the third-ranked Auburn and fifth-ranked Missouri on the outside looking in at the moment. Auburn will still be gunning for it, though, by either smashing high-ranked Missouri or hoping Ohio State falls to Michigan State.
Auburn has gotten a big boost out of junior quarterback Nick Marshall, a running dynamo who had 97 yards and a touchdown on the ground and 2 more touchdowns through the air. As usual, they got a standout performance from RB Tre Mason, who ran for 164 yards and a touchdown. And when it mattered most, they got an incredible individual effort from Chris Davis, who ran back a missed field goal that came up short. This year, someone always seems to step up. Bolstering Auburn’s team is a defense, that while vulnerable in spots, is exceptionally clutch when it matters most.
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Missouri’s only loss came in overtime to South Carolina in a game they led 17-0--that’s how close to perfection they came this season. On Saturday, they beat Texas A&M in QB James Franklin’s second game back from injury. On the season, Franklin has 16 touchdowns against only 4 picks. He is also handy with his legs and has a steely field-demeanor as an experienced 3rd-year starter. And if there’s a problem, backup Maty Mauk has proven more than capable. Rounding out the offense are three good running backs in Henry Josey, Marcus Murphy, and Russell Hansbrough. Their pass-catching unit is loaded with productive talent, namely Dorial Green-Beckham, L’Damian Washington, and Marcus Lucas. The point being--there are a lot of hands in this pot, making them a difficult team to defend against.
Defensively, Missouri has kept all opponents at 28 points or less in every game this season. Auburn has been slightly iffier on that side of the ball this year. Neither team has been particularly adept at stopping the pass this season, with Auburn ranked 100th and Missouri 112th in 2013. Missouri, however, is 14th in the nation against the pass, which could have them in good stead against the 5th ranked rushing offense in Auburn. But how much that all means is questionable for the purposes of this particular 4 quarters of football.
Auburn was the beneficiary of one of the wildest plays seen in years when they beat Alabama on Saturday. They put all their eggs in the Alabama basket, as beating the two-time defending champions was a titanic win and effort. Now they come right back and have to play a darned-good Mizzou team. You have to wonder if the win will pump even more wind into their sails or if maybe that game was their championship game on an almost-unconscious level, which would obviously result in a letdown against Missouri. It’s hard to question the motivation of a team that went from not winning a single conference game to being on the verge of winning the championship for the toughest conference in college football. It’s just something you have to wonder about. Will Missouri be a little sharper?
This game means a lot to both teams. You could say Auburn is more in the BCS title picture and therefore has more to play for, but don’t count on that. Missouri is one step away from giving their program a huge boost, winning a championship after only 2 years in a conference where it was thought they would need years just be able to compete. It’s hard to find words to describe what this win would mean to the Missouri program.
With an incredible combined 20-3-1 record against-the-spread this season, Auburn and Missouri are teams where betting against them hasn’t been very fruitful. It’s hard to go against Auburn right now, but I look for the more under-the-radar Missouri to cover the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Missouri Tigers plus two points.
