Nevada Wolf Pack (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Friday, October 4 at 9PM EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NEV +5.5/SDSU -5.5
Over/Under Total: 57
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On Friday, the Nevada Wolfpack come into Qualcomm Stadium to face the San Diego State Aztecs. Both teams are coming off wins last week, with the Aztecs coming back to beat New Mexico State on the road, while Nevada also overcame a deficit to defeat Air Force. Last October in Reno, the Aztecs beat Nevada by one point, 39-38.
Both teams have some interesting results this season. Nevada lost two games they were supposed to lose--to UCLA and Florida State. They gave up 120 points in those games and were disappointing even though they were outmatched. Other than that, they won their other three games and are coming off consecutive home wins over Hawaii and Air Force. The Aztecs opened the season with a loss at home to FCS team Eastern Illinois. Then they got their tails handed to them against Ohio State in a game that while hopeless, was nonetheless a letdown just from their sheer ineptitude. Then they managed to blow a lead and let Oregon nip them at the wire at home. In their only win, they came from behind to beat woeful New Mexico State on Saturday. At least Nevada is beating who they’re supposed to beat.
This looks like one of those bad Aztecs teams. They made some steps forward the past few years, but a lot of guys from that mini-renaissance are now gone and the reload doesn’t seem particularly strong. You could say the same thing for Nevada, which has leveled off since the Kaepernick era. But this season, the Wolf Pack seems to be a bit more on-point, at least results-wise. So why are the Aztecs favored?
Nevada, while defeating teams they are supposed to beat, has a defense that has a lot of question marks. They were stout in games against UC Davis and Hawaii, but that doesn’t say a lot. In their other 3 games, they gave up 162 points. While San Diego State is no Florida State or UCLA, the fact that Air Force had their way with them offers some hope to the Aztecs. At their best, San Diego State is pretty good. The problem is their best form seldom rises to the surface. And it when it doesn’t, they really stink it up. Junior starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler, seeing his first snaps this season, has ranged from dreary to mediocre. Ezell Riffin and Colin Lockett have been doing OK, and RB Donnel Pumphrey got going last week. There are just times where they aren’t moving. They stagnate.
Maybe they picked up some momentum after a big second half against New Mexico State. After all, the Nevada “D” is a unit where it’s not to hard to get on a roll. This Aztecs program has an almost-institutionalized knack for erraticism. If they somehow got this turned around, it wouldn’t be the first time they switched form suddenly without explanation. But they don’t really need to be great to beat a road Nevada team that has already been run through the mill a little bit.
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Veteran Nevada QB Cody Fajardo has been pretty solid and played a really good game against Air Force. Being banged up with a knee injury from the UC Davis game has limited him to 3 starts, but last week showed he is in fine form. So we see a picture developing--a more-offensively gifted team, especially at QB, Nevada is the team that can score points, but their defense is shaky. San Diego State, especially if they get their act together and stop under-performing, could exploit that. Perceived as perhaps the more solid all-around team, they are due to break out of their shackles and play a good game.
San Diego St. is not an easy team to get behind. The offense seems stuck in quicksand for long spells. And any notion of their defense being superior in any way, even when compared to Nevada, is dispelled when looking at the results. Giving up 40 to Eastern Illinois at home doesn’t ring of anything good. They have not been clutch in any way. But against Oregon State and New Mexico State, there were periods of the game that offered a glimmer of promise.
This is the last chance for the Aztecs. They already had to switch their starting quarterback, had some rough results, and now it’s time to see what they are made of. In college football betting, we have to be able to forecast when a team is due for an upturn, however slight it may be. This team is just so schizophrenic that it makes it difficult to predict. They could come out and smoke Nevada or get their butts handed to them and in either case, how surprised can you really be? That’s the Aztecs.
The Aztecs may very well get it done this week at home, but they will make it hard and maybe even have to come from behind to do it. Nevada’s offense, with the gutty Fajardo at the helm, should be able to put up some points and be pumped up for a conference game with a bye week coming next. It’s just that the defense is so worrisome and the Aztecs seem like they’re getting into a little bit of a groove offensively. Look for Pumphrey to continue his momentum from last week and get the Aztecs in position to get some separation in this game.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the San Diego St. Aztecs minus 5.5 points.
