Ohio Bobcats (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: OU +21/Lou -21
Over/Under Total: 56.5
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On Sunday, September 1, the 9th-ranked Louisville Cardinals begin what they hope is a fruitful campaign when they host the MAC’s Ohio Bobcats in the season opener. Louisville is coming off an 11-2 season and enters 2013 with their highest-ever preseason ranking. Ohio, meanwhile, is coming off a heartfelt 9-win season where everything seemed to go wrong. Despite the 21-point spread, this has the potential to be interesting.
Louisville’s hopes rest on the broad shoulders of Heisman candidate and top pro prospect Teddy Bridgewater--one of the best quarterbacks in the country. You could see how special he was all season last year, especially in the Cardinals’ big Sugar Bowl win over Florida. Former Gators’ defensive savant Charlie Strong is now in his 4th year at Louisville. With a powerful offense, look for him to help bring the defense a bit more up to speed this season.
When looking at this game, it’s normal to wonder aloud how Ohio’s “D” is going to handle Bridgewater and his crew of receivers, which returns the top 2 ball-catchers from last season. As if that weren’t enough, they add RB Michael Dyer to the mix--the former Auburn stalwart who was key in their 2010 BCS Championship season. This is a play-action nightmare that Ohio might be ill-equipped to handle.
Sometimes, it’s better to hop aboard a team like Louisville before, and not after, they get a bunch of big-time coverage. In other words, Louisville isn’t going to be taking anybody by surprise this year--on the field or at the betting windows. The Teddy Bridgewater hype machine is in full-swing and sometimes teams are better-suited to thrive in a more low-key role. But make no mistake, the hype might actually be warranted in this case. Bridgewater is one of the biggest talents in college football. He has great feel, is super-tough, has a rocket arm, and is pure from an instinctive and presence point-of-view.
It was hard to not admire the job coach Frank Solich did with a dilapidated Ohio squad last season. From an injuries perspective, they couldn’t catch a break and still soldiered on to a 9-win year, culminating with a win in the Independence Bowl. Quietly, the former Nebraska head coach has forged the Bobcats into a winning program. They won 10 games in 2011 and have a winning vibe floating around the locker-room, something that wasn’t always the case with the Bobcats.
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When operating at full-power, Solich likes to employ a more-conservative approach than what is commonly seen by MAC schools. The run is heavy and there is nothing glittery about their offense. They are led by QB Tyler Tettleton, who threw only 4 picks in 367 attempts last season. He has a nice back in Beau Blankenship (1604 yards) and a deep crew of dependable receivers. They lost 2 of their best offensive linemen, but the recruiting was strong in that area.
For the purposes of this game, one is again forced to gauge how Ohio’s defense will perform against what just might be an explosive Louisville offense. The secondary should benefit from being healthy to open the season, but if they can’t pressure Bridgewater up front, it might all be for naught. It was tough to not notice how teams seemed to be extra pass-happy when facing the Bobcats in 2012. And those were teams that didn’t have as much going for themselves as Louisville has this year. With Louisville, it isn’t just the pass. They have a lot of running back talent returning healthy this season and with the addition of Dyer, this is a unit that offers a lot of balance. This Bobcat “D” is really up against it.
In addition, how will Ohio fare against the Cardinals’ defense? These are questions that need to be asked because Ohio will need to put up some points to cover this spread, with the Louisville offense presumably able to score with ease against the iffy Ohio “D.” Tettleton is good--an efficient field general with a deep cast of weapons at his disposal, but that might translate to MAC success, not necessarily success at this level.
Louisville, with a defense that still has something to prove, is a team where laying 21 points doesn’t give one an overly-comfortable feeling. They are a team that thrives in the role of underdog or maybe as a moderate favorite. The last time they covered a spread of 21 or more points was in 2006. It’s been a losing bet for years to take Louisville as a big favorite. At the same time, this current Louisville manifestation is unlike any Cardinals team that has been seen, with them being considered a true-blue threat on a national scale this season for really the first time. That’s not a role they’re accustomed to, but at home against what is probably a mid-range MAC team, they should thrive. Win by more than 21 points? That’s going to be tough.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Ohio Bobcats and 21 points.
