Oklahoma Sooners (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, January 2, 2014 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: OKL +15/ALA -15
Over/Under Total: 51.5
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In this year’s Sugar Bowl, the Oklahoma Sooners face off against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Superdome. The 11th-ranked Sooners, at 10-2, have a chance to add a huge win at the end of their season against the 3rd-ranked Tide, a team that has won the national championship in three of the last four seasons. Alabama wants to avoid a letdown and finish their season strongly. Each team faces a slew of different challenges entering this game. The same can be said for potential Sugar Bowl bettors.
Alabama’s season ended about as gut-wrenchingly as possible. To be on the precipice of another BCS title game berth, only to have a missed field goal miracle return spoil it is not easy to accept. One should be fairly certain that Nick Saban and the leaders on the team will do and say the right things leading into what is still a major bowl game. But on an unconscious level, perhaps even buried within, is there a chance that some negative thoughts are swirling? It’s something to think about because the Sooners aren’t a team you can just show up against and hope to win or especially cover a spread.
Oklahoma has been relegated to their status since their first loss to Texas in early October. Three weeks later, they were blown out by Baylor. Along the way, they notched wins over reputable opposition, with their best win coming in their last game--a rousing 33-24 triumph over 10-1 Oklahoma State. So it may be fair to say that this game features a team that is coming together at the right time and relishes this opportunity in Oklahoma facing a team in ‘Bama that is less-enthusiastic and that peaked a while back. Then again, if not for an Auburn bolt from the sky, we might not be saying any of this.
This is AJ McCarron’s last game as Alabama quarterback. This is a chance to get a good send-off, in addition to being an NFL showcase. The fact of the matter is that there are a slew of match-up issues that Alabama may unleash on the Sooners. Oklahoma’ defense has been robust--26th against the run and 15th against the pass, but they haven’t faced too many teams like Alabama. McCarron has 26 touchdowns with only 5 picks and is simply one of the more-dependable quarterbacks in the entire nation. Running backs TJ Yeldon and Kenyan Drake are a handful and there are 8 Alabama ball-catchers with double-digit receptions this season.
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The last image we have of ‘Bama is how porous they looked against Auburn in the SEC title game. Let’s remember that up until that point, they were the top defense in the nation, giving up 10 or less points in 9 of their 11 games. They looked bad against Auburn, but let’s remember, Oklahoma is not Auburn. It’s a very good but not great Sooners team that showed a lot of pluck this season. They’re still a notch below the likes of Alabama, as the 15-point spread attests.
Oklahoma’s QB situation isn’t exactly cemented. Both big Blake Bell and freshman Trevor Knight have seen significant time and it hasn’t worked out too badly in recent weeks. Knight offers more movement out of the pocket and Bell is more of a passer, though he can also move well. The Sooners have a nice cast of backs, led by Brennan Clay and Damien Williams, with a nice pass-catching package starring Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard. Again, their defense has been getting better and hasn’t done badly for a group that lost 8 starters coming into the season.
Still, Oklahoma has an awfully young unit, especially up front where they are a bit undersized. They’re going to be seeing perhaps the toughest O-line they’ve seen this season. The secondary may match up better with Alabama than they do in the front seven. It’s not hard to envision a heavy dose of running from each team. Alabama looked hopeless and frozen against Auburn’s attack, but one should expect a better performance in this game.
This wouldn’t be the first time Nick Saban beat Oklahoma and Bob Stoops in the Sugar Bowl, as he turned the trick as LSU coach in ’04. Oklahoma needs to prevent this from turning into a shootout. Their offense operates better when allowed to be efficient, as opposed to needing to be explosive--something they’re not really cut out to do. Again, when looking at the point-spread, a lot of it seems to come down to whether Alabama can stoke their fires for a lesser game than what they had been banking on all season, until a miracle play locked them out of the title game. I think they will come out firing and be in good spirits to end the season in style. And that’s bad news for the capable Sooners.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Allstate Sugar Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Alabama Crimson Tide minus 15 points.
