Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (3-3 SU, 4-1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 12PM EST
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: OKST -7.5/TEX +7.5
Over/Under Total: 65
The Oklahoma State Cowboys come into Austin on Saturday for a key Big 12 matchup with the Texas Longhorns. Oklahoma St. took care of business last week with a 59-16 win over Baylor, which featured another Cowboys offensive showcase. They look to keep it going against a Texas Longhorns team that covered the spread, but fell to Oklahoma on Saturday, 29-24. Last season, Texas fell to Oklahoma State, 49-31, but they get this one at home and despite being just 3-3, they look a little pluckier this season and should give the Cowboys a good run for their money at home.
Again, the Longhorns are just 3-3, but that hardly tells the whole story. They've scored nice wins over Iowa State on the road and Kansas State, while giving ranked teams like USC and Oklahoma a real sweat. About midway through the final quarter on Saturday, they held a lead over the Sooners, giving up a late TD and not being able to answer. Still, with true freshman Sam Ehlinger behind center, the offense seems to have more zip in Tom Herman's first season as head coach. The defense also makes plays and gives a real strong effort every week. Unlike some recent Longhorns teams, you generally get a pretty good value betting on Texas in 2017, as they've failed to cover the spread just once with that being the first game of the season.
Again, the Longhorns offense seems to have gotten a boost from Ehlinger getting the nod at QB. Things looked bleak late in the 2nd quarter with Oklahoma taking a 20-0 lead. Two late first-half Texas scores narrowed it to 20-10 and by the 4th, the Longhorns had worked their way back into the game and taken the lead. Ehlinger had 278 yards through the air with a TD, while running for 110 yards and another score. It was his second 100-yard rushing game in a row. Seven ball-catchers had at least 26 yards receiving on Saturday, with Lil'Jordan Humphrey and RB Chris Warren, III. leading the way. Ehlinger is pretty resilient and other than Saturday, has been pretty clutch this season, while also being resilient when hit due to the lack of protection provided at times up-front.
The Texas defense has been a mixed bag this season. We've seen them be really clutch and make timely plays in close games, while also not being that great late. After letting Oklahoma score 20 in the first half, they held them to just 9 second-half points, as they tried to set the table for the comeback, which happened, but didn't hold. The long fourth quarter TD play they gave up late was bad, but against Oklahoma, things like that will happen and their showing wasn't all that negative. John Bonney had a pick on Saturday, while Malik Jefferson and Charles Omenihu both had sacks on the afternoon.
Oklahoma State has looked really good this season—except for their fourth game when they were upset by TCU, who has since shown themselves to be pretty darned good. With 100 combined points against Texas Tech and Baylor on Saturday, the high-powered offense is still cranking it out, while the defense continues working on things to prevent another collapse like the one they had against TCU. Sure, Oklahoma is a typical offense-heavy/weak-defense Big 12 team in a lot of ways. But on the right day, the Cowboys' defense can make a lot of plays and be somewhat-stout.
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Obviously for Oklahoma State, the offense is a big part of the winning formula, led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in senior Mason Rudolph. On Saturday, he threw for 459 yards through the air with three touchdowns. The kicker is that he didn't even look as good as he sometimes does, but big games like that are fairly routine for the young gunslinger. On Saturday, the Cowboys got in the end zone via the ground, with five rushing touchdowns, as Rudolph ran one in along with Justice Hill, who had 117 yards on the ground. All told, the Cowboys had 276 yards on the ground and another 471 through the air. WR James Washington was huge with 235 yards receiving, with Marcell Ateman adding another 119. They make a big 1-2 punch at wide receiver and there is room for a lot of different players to shine in this offense.
The Oklahoma State defense was adequate on Saturday, albeit against a winless Baylor bunch that has just a fraction of their former fire on that side of the ball. In their previous two games, they gave up a combined 78 points and looked as if they had receded a bit. They got some big plays on Saturday, with S Thabo Mwaniki and LB Gyasi Akem both getting interceptions. LB Justin Phillips had a sack and was all over the field. Also, in the middle, active Chad Whitener was his typical disruptive self. But things should get a little more difficult this week against Ehlinger and Company.
This has the looks of a tough game. Texas will certainly be up against it, with Oklahoma State's offense a constant threat to explode and put games out of reach. Texas has been very resolute, with week one the only time they've failed to cover the spread. They did well against a powerful Oklahoma offense last week, but the Cowboys have more threats on offense. And less on defense. That's where the daylight is for the Longhorns. This is a feast-or-famine type bet where we could both be right or wrong by a large margin. I see Texas being plucky enough and Oklahoma State being far less-explosive against teams of a certain quality, to the point where a Texas cover seems like the right move—but not by a lot.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Texas Longhorns plus 7.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Cowboys vs. Longhorns game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
