UCLA Bruins (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: UCLA +2/TAM -2
Over/Under Total: 56.5
The UCLA Bruins come to College Station to face the Texas A&M Aggies in an interesting week one Pac-12 versus SEC battle that has high stakes. Each team ended last season on a sour note and look for something better this season. Still, both teams face major challenges and will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the better teams in their respective conferences. Which team can get 2016 off to a positive start with a big win in week one?
UCLA was a mixed bag last season, but was able to cement their QB of the future with Josh Rosen getting a full season of experience as a true freshman. They won 8 games last season, while losing 3 of their last 4. They were 6-4 in the Pac-12. The offense lost a lot of key pieces, but the defense returns ten starters. Texas A&M started at 5-0 last season, before ending up also at 8-5. They won a respectable 4 conference games, but lost every big SEC against the spread, while also only covering once overall ATS after October 3.
At the end of the season, there was a mass quarterback exodus from A&M, leaving them in a shaky position. Those blows have been softened to some extent by the arrival of Oklahoma transfer and former Sooners starter Trevor Knight, who should give the Aggies an upgrade at the position, though he never really turned the corner as a Sooner. More help is on the way from the Sooner State with the arrival of RB Keith Ford, though he is still largely untested as a featured back. This is a part of the Texas A&M offense that could really use a boost.
If Knight can get in the zone, he has a nice package of aerial targets with which to work. They return Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil, Damion Ratley, and any other speedsters who might get pegged for playing time. For that group of players to make full use of their potential, a line that gave up 37 sacks last season will need to improve considerably. This next wave of A&M O-linemen might surpass their predecessors, with two returning starters forming a decent foundation. Still, quarterback play, the lack of a substantive run-game, and a young line are normally not the characteristics of a top SEC offense.
UCLA faces issues of their own on the offensive side of the ball. The offense will have a new look under first-year coordinator Kennedy Polamalu, who will opt for more of a pro-style and move away from the spread formation. He has a good QB in Rosen to fit that framework. In order for this new approach to take flight, they will need to dominate the line of scrimmage and get a lot more aggressive. It's not clear if UCLA retains enough clout on the line to make that happen. They lost a lot in the run-game with the departure of Paul Perkins and will turn to Nate Starks and Soso Jamabo. We'll see how that works out.
Rosen should get better this season, make fewer mistakes, and have success getting the ball into the hands of his receivers. The problem is they lost their top two receivers from last season and need to find answers to go along with guys like Theo Howard. They will need to get vertical and a deep threat or two will need to materialize. Again, that line could be a detriment in the pro-style offense, with the entire inside of the line gone. Tackles Conor McDermott and Kolton Miller are a good start, but those three inside spots need to get filled capably. They should benefit from a tight end being used more for blocking and the use of a fullback.
With the UCLA offense is an uncertain state with so much departed firepower, the defense actually looks better. Getting defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes gives their shaky run-defense an immediate boost. Eli Ankou and Takkarist McKinley could wind up making this a really good front. They need to improve from last season—that much is for sure. Linebacking needs to make more of an overall positive contribution to the team and it should with a 4-pack of capable players patrolling the middle. The secondary's effectiveness will be determined by how well the front seven comes around and how healthy they can remain throughout the season. But the talent is there with corners Randall Goforth and Marcus Rios, and safeties Jaleel Wadood and Tahaan Goodman, a real attacking player.
The Texas A&M defense was really good against the pass last season, but that had something to do with how easy it was to run against this group in '15. The pass-defense also got a big boost from the returning pass-rushing duo of Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, with tackles Daylon Mack and Zaycoven Henderson needing to stiffen up against the run. The linebackers are suitable, without really making a huge impact. That could improve with better play up-front against the opposing ground-game. And there is considerable upside in the secondary, with corner Donovan Wilson (5 picks), along with a good free safety in Armani Watts and a developing strong safety in Justin Evans. Coordinator John Chavis made some measurable progress with this bunch in his first season and there should be more of that this season. Again, if the line is run over, it will render a talented group just average.
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UCLA faces a lot of issues—a revamped run-game, replenishing aerial pieces, and an iffy O-line. At the same time, A&M might need more answers to be answered correctly for the stars to line up right. They are working in a new QB, looking for a back, and need youth to prevail on their line. And unlike UCLA, they face a lot of questions on defense that are likely to not all be answered in the affirmative. At the same time, head coach Kevin Sumlin and Chavis are likely to come with some answers. And they always seem to start off seasons well, for whatever that's worth.
Coming into College Station is a tough opener. It's not an easy place to play for a team looking for solutions across some different areas. I just see UCLA as a team with less overall liabilities. And with them getting points in a game where it's really easy to see them winning outright, I think a position on UCLA in week one can be wholly justified. I'll take the Bruins.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the UCLA Bruins plus two points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
