USC Trojans (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Friday, November 1, 2013 at 9PM EST
Where: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: USC +3.5/OSU -3.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
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On Friday in a key Pac-12 matchup, the USC Trojans come to Corvallis to face the Oregon State Beavers. Each team has had its share of problems this year, but look to have steadied their vessel after some rough passages. USC posted its second win in three games since the firing of coach Lane Kiffin when tey beat Utah on Saturday. Oregon State, meanwhile, ended a 6-game winning streak by losing to 6th-ranked Stanford, 20-12.
Oregon State is one of those teams where it may have been hazardous in forming an early opinion. Early this year, they were really awful. then weeks later, you look up and they’re doing pretty well. In this case, it’s understandable that people have been slow to come around. After all, the Beavers took a top-25 ranking into the season opener and lost to Eastern Washington. The Beavers were a team that was considered a Pac-12 darkhorse, not on the level of Oregon or Stanford, but perhaps just below that. Then they lose to an FCS opponent.
It didn’t get much better from there, even though they started winning. Against 26-point underdog Hawaii at home, they were knotted up at 14-14 at halftime and never threatened to cover. As touchdown favorites at San Diego State, they trailed 27-14 in the third quarter, before rallying to win while again not covering. At this point, a lot of people decided to jump off the Oregon State bandwagon--at least in a betting sense.
Then, the Beavers began coming around. They not only covered the spread in their next three games, but they crushed it each time. It speaks to the character of a team that manages to turn it around like Mike Riley and the Beavers have been able to do. This is a team with a purpose and and the ability to stick with it even if it’s getting sideways. Those are assets to take into consideration as we get into the latter half of a football season. And even though they came up short at home against Stanford on Saturday, this is a team that is feeling pretty good about where they are.
USC has experienced a tough season, something the program is not entirely accustomed to in recent years. Whenever a coach is fired midway through the year, it speaks volumes to how bad things are going. It’s the most clearcut stamp of failure you can receive as a team. As bettors, however, we don’t want to rule out the possibility for improvement. They came back to beat Arizona under interim coach Ed Orgeron, before falling to Notre Dame 14-10. On Saturday, they dominated Utah, winning 19-3.
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In the last few games, the Trojans have seen their defense step up, holding Notre Dame and Arizona State to 13 combined points. They will obviously be put to the test more on Friday against the high-powered Oregon State offense. While kept in check on Saturday against Stanford, the Cardinal defense is on another level compared to not only USC, but all teams in the Pac-12.
The Trojans will have to cope with an aerial attack that is unparalleled in the entire nation. A look at the Beavers’ passing stats are incredible, especially considering that these numbers were all compiled before November. QB Sean Mannion has thrown for over 3200 yards on 70% completions, with 30 touchdowns and a mere 3 picks. Speedster Brandin Cooks has caught 85 balls for 1256 yards and 13 touchdowns. Each man leads the country in those categories. Those are mighty-impressive numbers.
The Trojans defense, however, while dodgy at times, hasn’t been that bad for the most part. In their first 4 games, they allowed only 44 combined points. Then they imploded, giving up a combined 93 points to Arizona State and Arizona. But they have gotten it together in the past few weeks. In all fairness, however, Notre Dame and Utah combined don’t have as much offensive explosive potential as the Beavers.
While high-flying, the Beavers’ offense isn’t what you would call a unit with a lot of variety. As they rallied late against Stanford on Saturday, they were reduced to featuring the Mannion-to-Cooks connection and their lack of diversity hurt them. Still, the Beavers feature a home defense that can be fairly stingy, holding Stanford to only 20 points.
While some of the teams USC has been playing have decent offenses, this is a different degree of difficulty. This is only the Trojans’ third road game this season and they are 0-2, losing to Arizona State and Notre Dame. While they held Notre Dame close, they were blown out by the Sun Devils. Maybe that was their low-water point, as the game that led to their coach being canned. But something resembling that could very well occur on Friday.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Oregon State Beavers minus 3.5 points..
