Utah State Aggies (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Friday, September 27, 2013 at 9PM EST
Where: Spartan Stadium, San Jose, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: UTSU -9.5/SJSU +9.5
Over/Under Total: TBD
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In a Mountain West battle, the Utah State Aggies come to California to face the San Jose State Spartans. Utah State lost on Saturday, but played well in covering the spread in a narrow 17-14 defeat at USC. San Jose State had a rougher Saturday, getting hammered at Minnesota, 43-24.
Minnesota can be tough at home, but San Jose State’s 43-24 loss to the Gophers was a bit disconcerting. They were 5-point underdogs and seemed like they would have a good chance, but in the second half, they were absolutely dominated 23-7 and it wasn’t even as close as the score indicated. Their defensive front was manhandled by the beefy Minnesota O-line, as the Gophers romped to 357 rushing yards, with two backs each going for over 125 yards.
Coach Mike MacIntyre had whipped this Spartans program into shape, topping out at 11 wins last season. With his exit, they have lost a little bit of their mojo--if the loss at Minnesota was any indication. No one expected them to beat Stanford, but they at least covered the spread. This game is absolutely pivotal in determining if this Spartans team will still have momentum from their recent success or if they’re going to recede to the San Jose State of old. The defense, which moved to a 3-4 this season, has some work to do.
Utah State is another long-suffering program that has put some wind in its sails the past two years, with consecutive bowl appearances after a 14-year absence from postseason play. They have a lot in common with San Jose State, especially after losing the coach who revived the program and left this year for a more high-profile gig. McIntyre is at Colorado, with former Aggies’ coach Gary Andersen taking the head coaching gig at Wisconsin. Both coaches left after posting 11-win seasons that included bowl wins.
Utah State has some good tools, especially with experienced quarterback Chuckie Keeton. He doesn’t get a lot of attention, but the Aggies and their fans know how integral Keeton has been to the revival of a program that was really in the dumps for a long time. It’s still early in the season, but the early results indicate that the Aggies are probably closer to their 2012 form than San Jose State is. The Aggies have done well against Pac-12 opposition, nearly beating Utah at home in their season opener, before getting edged by USC on the road.
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Utah State may seem like the right pick. Each team has lost 2 games, but the Aggies seem to be stronger. While San Jose State really stunk it up on Saturday by losing to Minnesota resoundingly after a 14-day break, they are now more in their element. After road games against a Pac-12 and Big Ten opponent, they are now back at Spartan Stadium facing a Mountain West foe. We don’t want to get carried away with how bad San Jose State is based on a pair of road games against teams from superior conferences. An item of concern, however, is Utah State’s 49-27 win over a better San Jose State team last season. And in that game, the Spartans were riding high off 5 straight covers.
This may seem as though San Jose State is being sold short and that could be a miscalculation. Are there reasons for concern? Sure. But this is still a tough team with a heck of a quarterback in David Fales, who threw for 467 yards last year against Utah State. Against Minnesota last week, he had 439 yards. It’s worth noting he lost both games, so stats aren’t everything. It’s just that this Spartans team at their best can really move the ball and has a nice package of receivers, including Chandler Jones who is en route to a breakout season. RB Jason Simpson is a reliable back, but this team’s M.O. is to air it out.
This is Utah’ 4th road game in 5 games this season. Going back to the beginning of last year, however, they have covered every time on the road, except for this year’s season opener at Utah. They travel really well, losing by only a combined 7 points in a pair of road contests against Pac-12 opponents this season, something that would have been inconceivable with the Aggies a few seasons ago.
Last season, this game was also in San Jose and Utah State was a 2.5-point favorite. In this game, the spread is creeping up toward double-digits, making Utah State a less-desirable selection. San Jose State might be weaker this season, but there are still a lot of tools on the field and the dye hasn’t been fully cast yet. While Utah State has revived this program in a big way, they’re still not a team where you feel terribly comfortable giving a hefty number of points on the road against a conference team coming off an 11-win season.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take San Jose State getting 9.5 points.
