Utah State Aggies (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 2PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV: Pac-12 Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: USU +16.5/USC -16.5
Over/Under Total: 59.5
The Utah State Aggies come down to the Coliseum to face the USC Trojans in week two action. The Aggies won and covered the spread in week one with a 45-6 win over FCS in-state opponent Weber State. They showed some of the anticipated firepower they have on offense in week one, featuring what could become one of the better ground games in the Mountain West. But spanking Weber State and beating Southern Cal are two completely different propositions altogether. But USC didn't exactly look very good in week one, absorbing a 52-6 loss to Alabama. You don't want to condemn a team based on one game, especially against a top-ranked defending national champion, but it was upsetting to see them not be the slightest bit competitive.
At quarterback for Utah State is Kent Myers, who played a lot last season and had 16 TD passes against just three picks. Against Weber, he wasn't really needed in the aerial attack, with the Aggies run-game producing 428 yards. A lot of that was gained by Devante Mays, who went for 208 yards and three scores. Justen Hervey made his presence known with an 80-yard TD run. And Myers is also pretty handy with his legs, running for a useful 53 yards in the week one win. Aerially, they lost some key guys and need to develop some more viable targets through the air—something that could come with more time. They return seven starters overall on offense and should be a little better than they were last season. It's just that some time might be needed to make the offense less dependent on the run-game. That will likely decide is we see a repeat of last season's disappointing 6-7 season or their 10-win campaign from the previous season.
The return of Travis Seefeldt from injury in the middle of the Utah St. line could give them a boost and let them deal better with some key departures. For whatever it's worth, they looked pretty good against Weber State, who gained just over 100 yards on the ground on 41 carries. The middle was the Utah State lynchpin over the last few years, but with linebackers Nick Vigil and Kyler Fackrell departing, they lose a lot of steam and a bulk of their vocal leadership. It's highly possible that Utah State can find some more diamond in the rough, but this is a big question mark on the team. The secondary, led by Jalen Davis, Jr. and Devin Centers, Sr., should be okay. A lot depends on how far they fall off in the middle. If the middle can keep it together, look for other phases of this defense to grow. They were 17th in yards allowed in all the nation last year and should still be one of the better defenses in the MWC.
This is a tough game for Utah State. The defense returns a small handful of starters and now will be in the hot LA sun in the cauldron of the Coliseum trying to hang in there with the Trojans. This Utah State has lost 33 straight games when playing power five conference teams on the road. But some might recall the 2013 game between these two teams when the Aggies hung in there to lose only 17-14. But Utah State is sitting on an 18-game losing streak in road openers.
USC wasn't going to beat 'Bama, but with a lot of new pieces in the Crimson Tide equation, it was thought by some that USC would be the slightest bit competitive. No such luck. Moving forward, the Trojans still have a lot on the line and it begins here against a scrappy opponent that won't be easily dissuaded. The Trojans team has a lot of potential and we shouldn't assume it won't manifest just because it didn't against the best team in the country in the season opener. At the same time, those who find the result worrisome are within their rights to do so.
Saturday's loss was the first time USC had not scored a TD in a game since 1997. Quarterback Max Browne, who waited several years for this opportunity, was greeted by the best "D" in the land and he didn't thrive, going 14-for-29 with just 101 yards and a pick. He has one of the best receivers in the game in JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was only targeted five times. Backs Ronald Jones, Justin Davis, and others were virtually shut down. The brightest moment on offense was when Darreus Rogers caught a 36 yard pass from Browne. But after struggling so mightily against the Tide "D," will they feel like a weighted body suit was removed as they take on the far more-negotiable USU defense?
It will be interesting to see how the Trojans bounce back from this. Replacing Cody Kessler at quarterback looked to be the biggest issue and week one did nothing to dispute that. Still, most of the rest of the offense was back and they didn't look very good. Expect that to change. They have a game-changing receiver, two returning backs who were near 1000 yards each in Davis and Jones, and a line that returns all its components. Still, they couldn't manage even 200 yards of total offense in week one.
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New Southern Cal defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergrast saw his unit give up large chunks of yardage in the air and the ground against 'Bama. They were unable to notch a key play, though they were definitely strung-out by an offense that couldn't move the chains regularly. This defense was going to use a lot of 5-2 sets and they might have to rethink that in light of a D-line that lost a lot of its power and is depending on a lot of youth to rise to the surface. They weren't able to stop the Alabama run worth a lick, while a pair of freshman Tide quarterbacks combined to pick apart this unit.
One should expect far better results this week on both sides of the ball for the Trojans. It's the home opener against a good team in Utah State, but a team that is still a middling MWC team on the road facing a Pac-12 contender. And a contender that is highly irritated following a deflating week one loss. I see Utah State hanging tough for a while, before Southern California pulls away late for the win and cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the USC Trojans minus 16.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Utah State vs. USC game in the comfort of your home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
