Virginia Tech Hokies (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 5:30PM EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: VT +20/Ala -20
Over/Under Total: 48
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Virginia Tech and defending BCS Champion Alabama meet at the Georgia Dome in the season opener on August 31. Alabama is the leading favorite to again win the championship this season, while Virginia Tech is looking to rebound from a 7-6 season--following the program winning 10 or more games in 8 straight seasons. Alabama is a robust 20-point favorite.
With Virginia Tech, you’d like to give Frank Beamer the benefit of the doubt. One would almost expect a bounce-back season. Then again, no one stays on top forever. They should be better and develop as the season carries on. Beamer retooled the coaching staff and this program always has big-time talent. It’s just that are so many causes for concern.
The Hokies have a quarterback in Logan Thomas who should improve. His 18/16 touchdown-to interception ratio from last year wasn’t great. And the running game enters 2013 with a lot of questions looming. They couldn’t catch a break in the offseason. Michael Holmes was kicked off the team, Joel Caleb is suspended for this game, and then Tony Gregory went down with a career-ending knee injury. In this game, we might be seeing a lot of freshman Trey Edmunds. Talk about an intimidating debut. Goodness gracious.
If Virginia Tech’s secondary can thrive in the face of injuries and young talent at corner, this defense should be fine. It was 18th in the nation last season and a lot of guys are coming back. That front 7 should help the secondary come around and Kyle Fuller is a good cornerback. We’ll see if his kid brother Kendall can fill in on the opposite side with Antone Exum likely out. And losing LB Ronny Van Dyke for the year didn’t help, either.
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With Alabama, there is no secret what you get. You get a great team that seems to have the uncanny ability to not rest on their laurels. AJ McCarron is back with his 25-2 record as a starter. Their receivers are the best in the SEC and this offense could be even more explosive than they were in 2012, which is a scary thought. Starting nickel back Geno Smith is suspended for this game. The Tide lost 3 great offensive linemen in G Chance Warmack, C Barrett Jones, and tackle DJ Fluker. They lost leading rusher Eddie Lacy. Those aren’t good signs, but with Alabama, you know they’re going to act like they haven’t missed a step.
Coach Nick Saban has the hearts and minds of these guys and with 3 titles in the last 4 seasons, the best players want to be a part of this program and growing dynasty. So even as the personnel losses seem daunting, the picture is still rosy with the best high school talent and non-starters from last season waiting in the wings.
It would be one thing if V-Tech had its best guys in there, especially at running back. Logan Thomas is unquestionably a rising talent, but for his pass-attack to take off, he will have to shoulder less of the running responsibilities. Last year, he was running around too much to work on his aerial potential.
With the Hokies’ running game in even worse shape to open the season, will Thomas again be forced to make something happen with his legs? If so, he might have trouble with this particular defense--full of aggressive playmakers. Bama’s “D” boasts of a top secondary led by HaHa Clinton-Dix and a deadly linebacking corps with Denzel Devall and CJ Mosley--the best sideline-to-sideline LB in college, who might really make things tough on Logan Thomas.
The spread of 20 points is steep for Alabama, but such is the nature of the beast when you win 3 of 4 BCS Championships and are massively-hyped by the media. To cover a nearly 3-touchdown spread when not even at home against a team that has won 10 games in 8 of its last 9 seasons just doesn’t sound right on some level. It’s wrapped up in the perception of Alabama again being great this season, combined with the fact that the Hokies are not at this point in time what you would call a good Virginia Tech team.
Are these perceptions off? Not necessarily. Nebraska should be awesome this season. And on paper, Virginia Tech looks to be in a state of at least slight disarray. Whatever the Hokies might be able to do well is countered by Alabama being particularly strong in that area. And Alabama’s strong-suits seem to just perfectly tap into the Hokies’ weaknesses. But 20 points? Almost smells of a backdoor cover for Virginia Tech, doesn’t it? Then again, would it be so surprising if Alabama opened the season with a strong statement? We’ll soon find out.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Virginia Tech and 20 points.
