Washington Huskies (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. UCLA Bruins (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date/Time: Friday, November 15, 2013 at 9:00PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: WASH +2.5/UCLA +2.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
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In a key Pac-12 Friday night matchup, the Washington Huskies come to the Rose Bowl to face the UCLA Bruins. The University of California Los Angeles has some ground to make up, but is still in the division title hunt in the Pac-12 South. Washington, meanwhile, has won 2 straight following a midseason slump and looks to solidify their bowl status with what would be a huge road win.
UCLA beat Arizona on Saturday to go to 7-2. Myles Jack was named Pac-12 offensive player of the week with 120 yards rushing. What makes that notable is Jack is one of their best defensive players. The linebacker was used in some packages on Saturday with devastating affect, including a critical 66-yard 4th-quarter scamper that gave them enough points to withstand a determined Arizona late-game rally. Once again, QB Brett Hundley was a handful with his legs and arm, connecting with senior receiver Shaquelle Evans and buoyed by the surprise performance of Jack, who also had 8 tackles and a fumble recovery.
The Bruins had to brave a stormy passage where they faced Stanford and Oregon in consecutive games--with both coming on the road. They lost their only two games of the season during that stretch. While the Bruins were underdogs and they were expected by most to fall short of toppling the Pac-12 elite, it was still disappointing and they didn’t cover the spread in either game. But against the rest of the Pac-12, they have been pretty tough, winning and covering the spread against Utah, Cal, and Arizona. Washington probably falls somewhere in the middle of this equation.
As disappointing as the Bruins were against Stanford and Oregon, Washington hit the wall a bit harder after going 4-0 and getting ranked. A 31-28 loss at Stanford was actually a good sign, but it got worse with a 21-point loss to Oregon at home and a bottoming-out at Arizona State, where they lost by 29 points. They have since won two games in a row--against conference bottom-dwellers Cal and Colorado.
The Huskies, in effect, have really only lost one game where they really stunk it up. Like UCLA, no one really fancied them to beat Stanford or Oregon. The Arizona State mauling is a point of concern, but the Sun Devils are in first place in the Pac-12 South. All told- Washington and UCLA are in similar positions. The Bruins may be a sliver better overall, but they’re both good teams who are a clear notch below the elite conference teams. They both have talented playmakers at quarterback and game-changing players on both sides of the ball.
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Washington has a nice cast of players on offense. QB Keith Price (18 touchdowns/4 interceptions) has enjoyed a fine season, with RB Bishop Sankey (1305 yards/13 touchdowns) in tow. Their receiving crew is deep, with Jaydon Mickens, Kevin Smith, Kasen Williams, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins all making major contributions. Even Bishop Sankey has 20 catches. Both teams have good balance, with strength in the run and pass. Also in common is how both defenses have a tendency this year to struggle a bit against the run.
This is a pivotal game for both teams. UCLA needs this to continue their upward climb in Jim Mora’s 2nd year as coach after 9 wins last year. A win here at least gives them a “best of the rest” status in the Pac-12, with a game next week against Arizona State being a high-stakes matchup. Washington needs to avoid going to 6-4, which would lend a foul odor to a season that started with such promise. With a lot of returning talent, a star QB, veterans on the line of scrimmage, and a slew of good skill players, they have a lot to play for--both the players and coach Sarkisian.
I’d like to see UCLA not depend on tricks, like a fake punt that came up short on Saturday. In addition, Mora made a curious call on a penalty he accepted that gave Arizona another shot on third down, where if declined, it would have been 4th down. Naturally, Arizona converted. Any tomfoolery like that can cost them against this Washington team.
The spread seems a little congratulatory to Washington at first-glance, with UCLA favored by less than a field goal. Then again, this seems like an evenly-matched game. It has all the earmarks of a close contest and any number of results seem perfectly plausible. Washington is probably a bit more rested after a blowout on Saturday facing the short week, as opposed to UCLA, who had a more-taxing game on Saturday. I’m leaning Washington.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Washington Huskies plus 2.5 points.
