Wisconsin Badgers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: WIS +10.5/MICH -10.5
Over/Under Total: 44
The Wisconsin Badgers come into Ann Arbor on Saturday for a critical Big Ten matchup that can have far-reaching ramifications. Both teams are still unbeaten after week 4. Wisconsin was awfully-impressive in their second win over a top-ten opponent, with a 30-6 win over Michigan State in East Lansing. Could they possibly knock off Michigan St. and Michigan on the road in consecutive weeks? It's going to be a massive task, with Big Blue looking tip-top at 4-0 and coming off a 49-10 romp over Penn State in another solid all-around game for the Wolverines. They look to take it to 5-0, but the difficulty gets ramped up some against the surging Badgers.
Saturday illustrated that we might have to reconsider Wisconsin and start to wrap our heads around how good they are. They weren't expected to be that good and not many people had them beating LSU and Michigan State, as they have done. They might not look great on paper, but they're a real team. It was understandable for those who were skeptical of the Badgers chances coming into East Lansing, with QB issues and injuries to their top two backs threatening to disrupt their offense. That was clearly not the case, as the offense seemed to get a boost from the excellent play at QB.
The redshirt freshman Hornibrook looks to have locked down the gig at quarterback, thriving in a tough first start at Michigan State. After one start, Hornibrook now looks entrenched as the Badgers starter, following a good showing. His stats don't bear out the grit and polish he showed in navigating the Badgers to a fantastic 30-6 win. What's important weren't his numbers, but the way the offense came to life with him in there giving that big effort. He showed great accuracy at times with steel nerves as the Spartans home defense honed in on him. After beating the 5th ranked team in the nation in LSU and now in flattening the 8th ranked Spartans, we need to keep our eyes on Wisconsin.
The Badgers' offense got a big assist from the defense. But as the Wisconsin backs get healthier, expect better results on the ground. Running back Corey Clement scored two touchdowns still playing on a gimpy ankle, as Dale Ogunbowale led the team in rushing on Saturday. RB Taiwan Deal didn't get in the game and should be back. When this crew rounds into shape, they should be a difference-making backfield, getting back to the old Wisconsin style of running the ball heavily and effectively. Through the air, Hornibrook connected with Jazz Peavy for 96 yards, while hitting Eric Steffes for a TD score.
The Wisconsin defense is a top unit and after giving up 6 points to Michigan State on the road, they are really clicking. In week 1, they gave up only 14 to LSU, with the Tigers defense scoring a TD. In other words, against LSU and Michigan State, the Wisconsin defense allowed one touchdown and two field goals. And neither game was at home! So this is a defense that is showing a lot of upside and they're able to do it in enemy territory. When the Michigan State game was in doubt, with it 13-7 and the Spartans driving, a fumble was recovered by Leo Musso, who ran it back for a TD in a game-changing moment. That's the kind of defense Wisconsin has this season. They got three picks from Spartans QB Tyler O'Connor. Anyone who was withholding praise on Wisconsin after they beat an LSU team that was maybe not as good as advertised now has to give it up after the win at Michigan State.
The Wolverines look dynamite. In Jim Harbaugh's second season, it's all coming together. The one possible twist is that while some of the other top teams in the country have already passed big tests, U of M has beaten Hawaii, Central Florida, Colorado, and Penn State—a solid list of victims, but nothing to suggest a national champion contender. Meanwhile, the Badgers have already succeeded in that context.
On Saturday, the Wolverines continued to employ a hearty run-game with 326 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Some of the common suspects were again on the loose, as De'Veon Smith was over 100 with a score, Karan Higdon had 81 yards and two scores, Ty Isaac ran in a score and had 74 yards, with Chris Evans and Khalid Hill also getting in the end zone. That type of multi-pronged ground-game should keep backs' legs fresh and defenses looking for answers against the Big Blue ground-attack.
Michigan QB Wilton Speight was an efficient 21-for-34 with 189 yards and a score. When he has asked the question of a versatile pass-catching crew so far this year, they've answered the call. This is an explosive offense that can do damage in a variety of ways. But they're facing the first defense of the season that can really make things happen and we'll see how they respond after having it easier in the first four games. Oh, and if the offense doesn't always fire, the special teams can always do damage, with dangerous return man/corner Jabrill Peppers.
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The Michigan defense is a lynchpin of the Wolverines' success this year and if they hope to take it far, it will need to be top-notch. In week three, they gave up 28 to Colorado, before shutting them down for most of the second half. Other than that, they've given up very little, allowing 3 to Hawaii, 14 to UCF, and 10 to Penn State, with their only TD coming in the 4th quarter, long after the result of the game was still in doubt. The line is big and a pursuing group and the secondary might be one of the best around, giving up under 600 yards in the air through 4 games.
This can be a tricky spot for Michigan backers. You don't want to overrate the Wolverines, who everyone is so eager to anoint Big Ten champs. You also don't want to be slow to the dance with the Badgers, especially after they've provided so much evidence that they're a definite contender. It's almost hard to imagine a redshirt freshman QB like Hornibrook coming into Ann Arbor and upsetting a team many have pegged for big things this season. But he did go into Spartan Stadium and lead the Badgers to not only a win over Michigan State, but a virtual slaughter. And I think they can keep this one from getting out of hand.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Wisconsin Badgers plus 10.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Badgers vs. Wolverines game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
