Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Capital One Bowl
Date/Time: Wednesday, January 1, 2014 at 1PM EST
Where: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: WIS +1/USC -1
Over/Under Total: 51
Bet your Badgers/Gamecocks pick where your credit card WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus up to $250 FREE: Bovada Sportsbook.
In the Florida Citrus Bowl, the Wisconsin Badgers face the South Carolina Gamecocks in Orlando, Florida. It’s an appealing matchup of two well-equipped teams. Wisconsin suffered a letdown in their final game, losing to Penn State at home, but had won 6 in a row leading up to that. Ninth-ranked South Carolina, meanwhile, is on the heels of 5 straight wins that include meaningful triumphs over highly-ranked Missouri and Clemson.
Wisconsin was really on the verge of something borderline-special. A 7-point loss to Ohio State was hardly cause for shame and they had a chance to have that be their only setback, before coming up short at home to the 6-5 Nittany Lions. That cost them a better bowl placement, but they didn’t exactly catch a break in the opponent department with South Carolina. For all their faults and a few bad letdowns, the Gamecocks remained committed and really finished the season well. A road loss to Georgia was acceptable on some levels, but the loss to Tennessee really seemed to signal trouble. They shrugged it off and come into this game with a gust of wind, whereas Wisconsin sagged at the finish line.
This first-ever meeting of these two teams is actually a fascinating match-up from a fan or betting perspective. South Carolina showed tremendous mettle in top-notch wins over Mizzou and Clemson, so them being ever-so-slight favorites is perhaps a tad surprising at first glance. But lets us not judge Wisconsin on their worst moment. It was a long season and for the most part, the Badgers were having their way, as their 9-2-1 ATS record attests. In fact, if you had taken Wisconsin in all of their first ten games of the season, you would have never lost a bet. Are they peaking at the right time? Perhaps not. But they are not to be taken lightly, especially with their top-shelf run game and ability to stop the run--two potential match-up concerns for the Gamecocks.
The Badgers have one of the best 1-2 punches at running back with Melvin Gordon (1466 yards) and James White (1337 yards). Even freshman back Corey Clement has gotten into the mix, with some good games this season, including 9 touchdowns. Quarterback Joel Stave has made good use of all his weapons, including standout receiver Jared Abbrederis and TE Jacob Pedersen. South Carolina counters with a steely senior quarterback in Connor Shaw, who has thrown for 21 touchdowns against only one pick, while adding 511 yards on the ground. RB Mike Davis has been quiet in recent weeks, but is still a standout back. The Gamecocks will need a vintage performance from himself and the O-line to have success against this Badgers’ front.
Wagering Tip: Would you rather pay $110 or $105 for the very same product? It's a no brainer right? So dump your expensive bookie that is socking you -110 odds and make the switch to reduced juice sports betting at -105 odds at the web's best betting site: 5Dimes! You will be SO glad that you did as it's like receiving a bonus every time you bet!
South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney, one of the more ballyhooed defensive prospects in years, has been a disappointment and spent a lot of the season hurt. Could this be a game where he re-affirms his status with another huge performance like he did in last season’s bowl win over Michigan? And even if he doesn’t personally shine, he creates opportunities for others on the team with all the attention he receives. Though to be frank, the supporting cast surrounding Clowney is not as strong as last year.
Wisconsin lost two games all year, by the exact same score of 31-24. They weren’t really that far off from having a truly special season--just a couple plays here and there. If Stave didn’t throw 3 picks against Penn State, they’d be BCS bowl game-bound. But the bottom-line is that they didn’t make it and here they are, in a lesser game, yet still against a top-ten opponent. If Wisconsin can ease up on the miscues, they are really a handful for any team in the nation and that includes South Carolina--a good team, but far from invulnerable. Still, watching South Carolina do so well against some really good backs, they might be able to keep a lid on the potent Badgers run game. They will need to if they want to win this game. They want to avoid a shootout where the burden falls completely on the offense. That type of game suits the more explosive Wisconsin offense.
Wisconsin’s defense is highly-ranked in all major categories. Against lower-end teams, they gave up very little, holding 7 opponents to 10 points or less. Against better opposition, however, like Arizona State, Ohio State, and even Illinois and Penn State, they gave up point totals in the 30’s. Not that you would call South Carolina a premier offense, but they fit in nicely with the teams that have run up the point total against the Badgers this season. South Carolina, in games against good teams like Central Florida, Missouri, and Clemson, allowed a respectable 66 combined points. In other words, against premier competition, perhaps the Gamecocks are the more bankable commodity.
South Carolina may be a tad better than they’re getting credit for. Their two losses locked them into a framework, but their list of wins suggest a first-class squad. They’ve already beaten 3 teams that are in or around Wisconsin’s class, while the Badgers have yet to beat a team that can approach South Carolina’s potential. This is a toughie and one shouldn’t rule out an explosive Wisconsin giving the Gamecocks trouble. Even so, I’m leaning toward the more battle-hardened Gamecocks.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Florida Citrus Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the South Carolina Gamecocks minus one point.
