MMA Fight: UFC 175
Key Matches: Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida/Ronda Rousey vs. Alexis Davis
When: Saturday, July 5, 2014
Time: 9:00 pm EST
Where: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
by Loot, MMA Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Chris Weidman, (-225), 11-0 (5 KOs, 3 Submissions) vs. Lyoto Machida, (+175), 21-4 (8 KOs, 2 Submissions)
On July 5, UFC Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman will face former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto Machida in the main event of UFC 175. With the Nevada Commission banning testosterone replacement therapy and the UFC following suit, Vitor Belfort was taken out of this fight, with Machida getting the call. The fight was originally slated for UFC 173 in May, but a knee injury to Weidman caused a postponement. While Belfort was a deserving challenger based on his recent run of success, Machida may actually be the tougher opponent, or at least a more difficult stylistic match-up for the champion.
The 35-year old Machida is 2-0 at this weight class, knocking out Mark Munoz and decisioning Gegard Mousasi--a pair of good wins that illustrates his potential at 185 pounds. Sometimes, when an older fighter drops in weight, it doesn’t work out as well as one would think. Fighters typically drop down in weight out of desperation, to breathe some life into their sagging careers. And while Machida had lost 4 of 7 fights before moving down to middleweight, two of those decisions should have gone his way. His last two fights show he is still a robust test for anybody, even an unbeaten and blossoming champion like Weidman.
Coming off two wins over a man who is on any short list of the greatest MMA fighters of all time in Anderson Silva has done wonders for Weidman, his status, and his confidence. It seems like the public is begrudging in giving Weidman his just due. Like in his last fight, his second win over Silva, everyone focused on the gruesome knee injury suffered by “The Spider” rather that what Weidman did right, which is use great timing to make it so Silva’s leg collided violently with his knee. Weidman does a lot of little things like that. He’s very smart and cool in the eye of the storm--able to think on his feet and come up with the right moves.
Machida is more the eye-catching fighter, with his karate background and fancy striking. It’s just that Weidman is in a lot of ways a natural. Not so much that his talent blows you away, but he has a certain god-given ruggedness. He’s made of steel. It gives all aspects of his game more clout. He’s a guy whose results may look better than most people’s naked-eye appraisal of his octagon prowess. Sure, his wrestling is on another level, but don’t let that detract from other aspects of his game, namely his heavy strikes.
This fight has a lot to do with what each fighter is able to do offensively. It just seems like maybe this will come down to the other end of it--how much each man can take. By no means is Machida a fragile fighter, but in terms of being able to absorb punishment, the nod may go to the fresher, younger, and very mentally-tough Weidman. I like Weidman late, perhaps by 4th round TKO.
Loot's Prediction to Win the Match: I’m taking Chris Weidman to win at -225. Find the lowest favorite odds and highest paying underdog odds at 5DIMES!
Ronda Rousey, (-850), 9-0 (1 KO, 8 Submissions) vs. Alexis Davis, (+525), 16-5 (2 KOs, 7 Submissions)
On the main undercard bout of UFC 175, Ronda Rousey defends her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title against contender Alexis Davis. Rousey is one of the biggest draws in MMA--a real phenomenon who has won all 9 of her fights, with 8 of then ending before the bell sounded to end the first round. Is there anything Alexis Davis can do to derail this freight train?
The short answer is no. This is not meant as a slight against Davis. After all, she earned this shot by defeating Jessica Eye in her last fight, in addition to other contenders, and is a top-flight performer in this division. The problem is that at this juncture in the short history of the UFC’s Women’s bantamweight division, there is a lack of depth. Plain and simple, Davis is just not on Rousey’s level. Barring an injury or something extraordinary, Rousey should win this with room to spare.
Davis has won 5 straight, but it doesn’t do her her case any favors when we see she dropped two fights to Sarah Kaufman, who lasted all of 54 seconds against Rousey. That might be an unfair observation, since it is styles that make fights and fighters who lose to fighters their opponent beat sometimes manage to win. Davis has won all 3 of her UFC fights, holds a win over Liz Carmouche, and appears to be hitting her peak just in the nick of time to face Rousey. Still, her chances look dicey at best.
Davis has a submission game, which, of course, pales to what Rousey brings to the table. And she’s only used strikes to stop two of her 21 opponents and Rousey won’t be the third. The problem is how do we make money on this fight with Rousey such a ridiculous favorite? This requires more of a specific prediction. On one hand, you have to figure Rousey’s string of one-round wins will stop happening with such frequency, as the quality of her opposition increases. I just think there is enough of a talent gap between these two women where Davis is going to quickly find herself to be out of her element. I’m looking for a one-round finish for Rousey.
Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight: I’m taking Rousey on a prop bet to beat Davis in the first round. Bet your Rousey/Davis pick at an online MMA betting site where your credit card will work for deposits and where you can deposit $100 to $500 and get a dollar for dollar 100% matching bonus (FREE MONEY!): GTBETS.
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