MMA Fight: UFC 199
Key Matches: Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping and Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber III
When: Saturday, June 25, 2016
Time: 11:00PM EST
Where: Forum, Inglewood, California
TV: PPV
by Loot, MMA Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Luke Rockhold, (-800), 15-2 (4 KOs, 9 Submissions) vs. Michael Bisping, (+500), 28-7 (15 KOs, 4 Submissions)
UFC Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold will defend his title against substitute challenger Michael Bisping in the main event of UFC 199. With ex-champ Chris Weidman injuring his neck, their rematch will have to take place another time. But as far as replacements go, Bisping isn't a bad choice—a veteran who has been a consistent winner while also providing a lot of entertainment over the years. But as the odds indicate, he is certainly up against it with the reigning champion Rockhold.
In 2014, these two 185-pounders tangled, with Rockhold emerging with a 2nd-round submission win via guillotine choke. And that should be an item of concern for potential Bisping backers, with "The Count" having already been beaten by this man. But that could also play into Bisping's hands. Rockhold was expecting a rematch with Weidman—a critical rematch that could have gone any number of different ways, as the odds suggested. Now he spins out of that to face a big underdog—an aging and battle-scarred battler that he has already beaten. That drop in urgency could resonate in a bad way for Rockhold. Meanwhile, Bisping's urgency will be sky-high. That much we do know.
It has been a long ride for Bisping to get to this spot, his first title opportunity. And if he loses this fight, retirement seems like the only option. The man is a proven winner, with ungodly amounts of fighting spirit in his blood. He knows what he's doing in the octagon, as there is nothing he hasn't seen or anything you can do to him that he hasn't already experienced. He is a fighter through-and-through. And he has enjoyed a decent late-career spurt, with three straight wins since the Rockhold loss. In his last fight, he scored his biggest ever win on paper—a controversial 5-round nod over Anderson Silva.
On the negative side, in addition to the fact that he has already lost to Rockhold, is Bisping's ring-age. Though 37, he's a fighter hanging by a thread. His eye is wonky and he busts up quite easily nowadays. He has been taken a lot of punishment in his career, even in his last fight, which was a win. The turnaround for this fight is pretty quick for Bisping, being that Anderson dished out a lot of punishment on him in their February bout. It's not that Bisping is washed up or anything of the sort. He's pretty close to his best form in terms of fighting. But that form was never quite enough to get him to the top. And you have to wonder how much more he can take, especially at this level. In his defense, there aren't many fighters who were more victimized by the PED era, with some of Bisping's bigger losses coming to juiced fighters. Other losses were pretty close. He's been right on the cusp.
Rockhold, 31, will be making the first defense of the belt he won from Weidman in December. He has a vast arsenal, as Bisping is well aware. In that fight, a Rockhold head kick had Bisping in trouble, before Rockhold went to his black belt Jiu-Jitsu, choking out Bisping. The lanky Rockhold has great range and deceiving robustness for a man of his build. His paths to victory are numerous.
From a skill, energy, and youth perspective, the picture is less-than-rosy for Bisping. But there are other issues at play that create a little daylight for the British vet. We discussed the potential for slippage in the overall urgency of Rockhold as he approaches this fight. We have also seen that logical handicapping of an MMA bout only goes so far in a sport where anything can, and often does, happen. And with Bisping, you're at least getting a fighter at good odds who has an abundance of skill, experience, and passion to win. To get to this spot took a ton of inner-resolve and a man with those types of attributes can never be overlooked.
With that said, I'm not entirely enthusiastic about taking Bisping at only +500, as it seems like it would be an upset of bigger proportions if it were to happen. And Rockhold at -800 leaves little room for any upside. I'm suspecting an early night. I think Bisping is a good story, but one that is due to end soon in somewhat violent fashion. I'm taking Rockhold in rounds one and two.
Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Luke Rockhold to win in rounds one or two.
Dominick Cruz, (-550), 21-1, 7 KOs, 1 Submission) vs. Urijah Faber, (+425), 33-8 (7 KOs, 19 Submissions)
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz makes the first defense of his title against familiar foe Urijah Faber. It is the third meeting between these two fighters, both of whom are pioneers in the lower-weight classes. With a history that goes back a decade, they finally get to settle matters in this rubber match with all the marbles on the line. It is the first defense for Cruz, who won the title from TJ Dillashaw by 5-round split decision in January.
These two fought twice before. For the WEC featherweight championship in 2007, Faber submitted Cruz with a guillotine choke in the first round. That would be the first and only loss Cruz ever would suffer in his career. In the rematch in the UFC in 2011 for the bantamweight title, Cruz exacted revenge with a unanimous decision win. Both have been through an awful lot since then.
Injuries unfortunately derailed Cruz' career and some thought he'd never have a chance to crawl back into this position. But with his commitment and hard work, he got back to the top of the pile. And now the 30-year old looks to make the most of it. After beating Faber five years ago in their last encounter, Cruz has only fought three times. But against a really good champion in Dillashaw in January, he showed he still has it.
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Faber probably should have been champion before now. He certainly has the skills and talent to be a champion. And how many title tries can you give someone as good as Faber before he wins one time? One would expect him to think this is probably his last title shot, as it would be hard to justify giving a fighter a shot after losing 4 times. But it's unfair to label Faber as a fighter who can't win the big one. He's still 9-4 in the UFC and holds wins over some of the best lighter-weight fighters in history. A December 2015 decision win over Eddie Saenz was his last appearance in the octagon.
Cruz has only stopped one opponent in the last 6 years. With 8 stoppages in 22 fights, he doesn't finish the top fighters he faces. Meanwhile, Faber has finished 26 opponents in his 33 wins. With 5 decision losses, however, Faber has lost his share of decisions and Cruz does set a hectic pace that a lot of fighters can't keep up with over the 5-round distance. While acknowledging the full scope of Faber's menace, I see Cruz producing enough energy to eke out a 5-round decision. But at -550, there is absolutely no value on Cruz and the only move is to bet on Faber at +425 on a value play.
Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight: I'm betting on Urijah Faber at +425. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
