2017 National League MVP Odds and Analysis
By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
This is one of our favorite bets here at Lootmeister.com. Betting on who will win the MVP award can be a very rewarding betting experience. First of all, it can be exhilarating from simply a financial standpoint. With so many worthy candidates on the board, the odds can pretty fat. And that's especially true the more off the beaten path you go. We see the top guys at the head of the list getting some pretty short odds, but those numbers get big in a hurry. From the first choice to the seventh choice, the odds jump from +275 to +2200.
We also like this bet from an action standpoint. It covers an awful lot of ground, with every at-bat throughout a 162-game season factoring into the wager. You will have action the entire way, as you become invested in that player's every game throughout the whole long MLB regular season. When looking at all the bets available when betting on sports, it's hard to think of one that packs more mileage into it then a futures bet on who will win the NL MVP Award.
It's an interesting bet to make with a lot of considerations to ponder. In the recent past, we see pitchers almost never winning this award, though Clayton Kershaw was an exception in winning the 2014 MVP. Usually, the winner falls into a certain formula where power is the key common thread. We're talking about power-hitters who are also considered good overall hitters who hit for average. There have been some players who weren't big home run guys who won the award recently, like Jimmy Rollins and Buster Posey, but power is usually a big part of this equation. For 7 seasons, there haven't been any repeat winners of this award.
The winner of this award used to always be a player from a good team. The term most-valuable didn't relate to players on bad teams. But we've seen a shift in the last generation where players on below-average teams are getting voting attention at an accelerated level. But even with that change, players on good teams have an edge. And to take it further, players with big years on teams that suddenly become good have a really big leg-up in the minds of voters. So if torn between two different guys, you might want to lean toward the player on the better team. Those players get more attention, are more visible, and have their numbers resound more than players stuck on bad clubs.
The last two MVP winners in the National League are atop the odds board this season, with Kris Bryant and Bryce Harper nearly co-favorites at +275 and +300, respectively. Those numbers start going up quickly the more you're willing to veer away from the favorites. A look at recent winners shows that it has paid off to look a little bit down the list for choices. Generally what we like to do is spread it around a little bit, taking players who are more-established with some new blood, along with some favorites and long-shots that could really pay off if they hit.
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Take a look at the odds board and see if anything jumps out at you. Following the posting of the odds is a little breakdown of some of our favorite picks, including some favorites, middling shots, and some long-shots, as well. Take a look and let's see if we can't place some good NL MVP futures bets.
Odds to Win the 2017 NL MVP:
Kris Bryant+275
Bryce Harper+300
Nolan Arenado+700
Anthony Rizzo+900
Cory Seager+1200
Freddie Freeman+1400
Daniel Murphy+2200
Paul Goldschmidt+2500
Yoenis Cespedes+3300
Giancarlo Stanton+3300
Buster Posey+3300
Joey Votto+3300
Kyle Schwarber+3300
Clayton Kershaw+3300
Max Scherzer+3300
Andrew McCutchen+3300
Trea Turner+5000
Matt Carpenter+5000
Adrian Gonzalez+5000
Starling Marte+5500
Carlos Gonzalez+6600
Ryan Braun+10000
Addison Russell+10000
DJ LeMahieu+10000
Charlie Blackmon+10000
AJ Pollock+10000
Jonathan Villar+10000
Matt Kemp+10000
Christian Yelich+10000
Maikel Franco+10000
Adam Eaton+10000
Favorites We Like:
Kris Bryant (+275): Rookie of the Year in his first season and MVP in his second, Bryant is an obvious frontrunner. Starring for the defending champion Cubs, Bryant has the charisma, buzz, and power to figure in this topic for many years to come. And the thought that he might have another gear at 25 is scary.
Bryce Harper (+300): Still only 24, Harper is coming off a rough season where he hit .243—a precipitous drop-off from his 2015 MVP season. He can be erratic and injury-prone and might not offer much value at this number. The same can be said for Bryant. At the same time, to not account for either of the top two favorites could be a mistake. We recommend taking a stand with one of the top two faves.
Middle-of-the Road Picks We Like:
Corey Seager (+1200): Third in the league MVP voting in his rookie season at 22 last year, Seager is a frontrunner and one with decent value at +1200. The Dodgers are a top team, Seager has the buzz, and a natural progression in form would result in him being at the lead of this conversation.
Daniel Murphy (+2200): Murphy is a strange case. Always a solid player, Murphy has shown a dash of magic since the 2015 postseason. In his first season with the Nationals, he hit .347, drove in 104 runs, and led the league in slugging and OPS. At 32, a special season could lie ahead for the all-star second baseman.
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Giancarlo Stanton (+3300): We like the kinds of picks where a guy goes from the top of the list and then starts getting fat odds after some rocky passages. Not so sure missing half the season from a bad beaning followed by one off-year is enough to warrant one of the more dangerous bats in the league going to as high as +3300.
Long-Shots We Like:
Trea Turner (+5000): Sometimes, we try to time the explosion. At just 23, Turner hit .342 with 13 homers and 33 steals for the Nationals in just 72 games! At 50-to-1 odds, you get one of the brightest prospects in the league on a good team who just might be in this conversation by season's end.
