MLB Betting: Early Season Baseball Betting
By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
April is an exciting time for baseball fans and bettors. Newness gives way to the feeling of opportunity. Baseball fans and betting men are starved for real baseball action by this time. It’s the part of the season where enthusiasm is at its highest. At the beginning of the season, however, there are some concerns that are unique to this particular time of the year. The last thing we want to do right out of the gate is find ourselves in a hole with a depleted bankroll. We want to spend the season developing, not trying to atone for a horrible start.
There is an element of the unknown in April that bettors need to negotiate. When we’re making midseason wagers, we use a lot of information that isn’t really there in April. We rely on a pitcher’s recent form, how a team is hitting, and the overall vibe and form of a team. In April, we’re starting fresh. The only form upon which we can rely is the previous season or spring training (See my article on Preseason Baseball Wagering). Relying on either of those elements for worthwhile information can be a futile endeavor.
It might take time for things to settle. New players and veterans alike don’t all hit the ground running in April. They’re still warming up their bones or getting acclimated to their new situation. You see this a lot with big free-agent signings. Those guys might end up having big seasons when it’s all said and done, but they need a little extra time to get into the swing of things.
A lot of good teams are expected to hit the ground running. As bettors, we can often times find some good-value opportunities to bet on the other side. Its just that a supposedly-good team might require some time for all the changes to “take.” A new manager often times requires a little time to get his system rolling and in the meantime--there could be some growing pains. That equals exceptional value betting against them. The chemistry between a manager and his team takes time to cultivate. They need to experience some things before they can galvanize as a strong team.
Improved teams can be a tricky proposition. Try to develop a fuller understanding of what a team is really gunning for in a given season. They may have made some key acquisitions in both the pitching staff and the lineup. But those improvements were more geared towards enhancing the team when the games really start to matter. A team that has been getting to the postseason, yet is falling short of World Series glory might make some moves in the offseason, but those player transactions are more designed for giving that team a boost in September and October. April? Maybe not so much.
There may be teams who fly out of the gate in April, while others are still stuck in mothballs. The point is that it is a long season. Teams are trying to find their bearings in this time of the season, seeing what works, what doesn’t work, and trying to get their ducks in a row for a good year. In other words, April is not always a reliable measure of a team. Sure, there are a lot of teams that finish well who have a good April, mixed in with bad teams who stink it up early in the season. That doesn’t mean April isn’t a more speculative time of the year.
Our knowledge is lower and we’re forced to rely more on speculation. A team’s season can undergo many different manifestations during a long 162-game campaign. So what happens in April can just end up being an aberration by the time it’s all said and done.
What does that mean for the bettor? We want to exercise caution. Of course, we want to make solid observations and act on them when the situation is right. The new season is a time for opportunity, a time for you to capitalize on your original observations before they become public domain. At the same time, it is April. The opportunities are there, but so is the risk. We are often times acting on what we think, not so much what we know. It’s a unique time of the year. April is like no other time in baseball and we should be excited. Just remember that a long season lies ahead and the last thing we want to do is spend the remaining months chasing our losses, when we should be making money.
If you liked this article you may also like a piece I wrote on Money Management.
