2013 NFL Division Previews: AFC East
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Last season, the Patriots took the AFC East for the 9th time in 10 years with a 12-4 record. Bringing up the rear was a 7-9 and two 6-10 teams looking for an upgrade in 2013. Miami, with a first-year coach and quarterback went 7-9. The Jets were a major disappointment at 6-10, while Buffalo also won 6 games. A lot of people feel this year won’t be such a no-brainer. Let’s look at the AFC East and see if we can’t make some sense of this division.
New England Patriots: With New England approaching the beginning of the season with the uneasy prospects of having zero of last season’s top 5 receivers in the fold, a lot of people are expecting a downturn. Not so fast. They still have Bill Belichick, the mad genius at the helm. Tom Brady is still there and should step up his play in light of what seems like a depleted roster on that side of the ball.
It’s important to remember that not even the Patriots teams that won Super Bowls had a slew of All-Pro players on the team. This is a team that stresses the system more than the individual pieces of the puzzle and there is no reason to think other players will not step in to fill the void. And Gronkowski will in fact be back. Look for New England to take a step forward defensively this season. Meanwhile, Brady will do his thing behind a top O-line and find some weapons as the season develops. New England should be all right and is certainly a worthy favorite to once again take this division.
Miami Dolphins: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and coach Joe Philbin both enter their second season with at least moderately-high hopes for this campaign. For Tannehill, this is a pivotal year. Does he emerge from the role of average quarterback and take a step forward this season? There were signs of promise in his rookie campaign and he led Miami to 4 wins in their last 6 games. WR Mike Wallace joins the fray and should help Tannehill improve on his 12 touchdowns from 2012.
Reggie Bush, who had quietly racked up over 2000 yards in rushing the past two seasons, is gone--as is a good left tackle in Jake Long, as well as losses in the linebacking corps and a top corner in Sean Smith. But the reload was strong. In addition to Wallace, LB Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes, LB Phillip Wheeler, WR Brandon Gibson, and TE Dustin Keller were brought in. First round DE Dion Jordan could prove to be a real force.
Their secondary will need to get it together, particularly at cornerback. If this unit can realize their full potential, they could give opposing offenses some issues, but a lot of stars will need to line up perfectly for that to happen. A cautious wait-and-see approach is called for with Miami, but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them be in the playoff picture late in the season.
New York Jets: Rex Ryan is on the hot-seat following a 6-10 season. In Ryan’s first two seasons at the helm, he got the Jets to the conference championship each year. They are since 14-18, with a once-stout defense in a state of erosion. Some personnel losses, injuries, and acquisitions that didn’t pan out well have rendered this defense a shadow of their former self--going from 16.9 points allowed in his first two years to 23 in the last two seasons. The pass rush needs to take a step forward, with no players registering double-digits during Ryan’s tenure.
There are some better tools on offense. Maybe, just maybe, Mark Sanchez can recapture some of his prior form. And if he doesn’t, there are worse QB prospects than Geno Smith to have at your disposal. RB Chris Ivory should find success, or at least more than he found in New Orleans where he didn’t get enough touches. Some players, like receivers Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill will return healthy. So who knows? While a playoff run may be out of the realm of sound reason, they’re maybe not as bad as people have been making it sound.
Buffalo Bills: For a team that has only been over .500 once since 1999, the expectations aren’t very high. Still, if there were a long-suffering team you would pick to improve this season, why not Buffalo? The once-promising QB Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t work out and he’s gone. But with two talented backs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, you can’t blow them off completely. Spiller, in particular, showed signs last year of becoming an A-list back, with 1244 yards in just 9 starts, with a robust 6 yards per carry. Look for him to have a big year.
The quarterback position comes down to EJ Manuel or Kevin Kolb. While you ideally don’t want that position coming down to a rookie and a veteran whose ceiling has been exposed as being limited--would it be so crazy if either guy had a good year? Their 3 top tacklers are gone from 2012, but DE Mario Williams is still going to wreak havoc. They also lost a key part of the O-line in guard Andy Levitre, but look out for rookie receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. New head coach Doug Marrone has some tools and the Bills are worth keeping an eye on--if not for this year, at least for the future.
