2016 NFL Most Passing Yards Futures
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Quarterbacks are the most visible players on the field. They get the most attention. It can be a lot of fun to bet on which quarterback will have the most passing yards in a season. It can also be a profitable form of recreation. You will have a reason to follow the player's entire season when making this bet, as it really packs a lot of mileage into one wager.
Since quarterbacks are the most talked-about players, there is a certain amount of hype and public opinion that drives the odds of this proposition. That leaves a little daylight for enterprising bettors who can see through the hype. At the same time, it's not an easy bet to beat. There are dozens of choices, with only one pick paying off at the end of the day. That's why we recommend taking a few or even several different guys. And with the odds being what they are, one can still profit handsomely even when making multiple selections.
Drew Brees leads the odds again this season, having won this honor 6 times since 2006, including last season. There is a gaggle of former winners among the top choices, with Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger still in the mix. Brady is 25-to-1 with the 4-game suspension. The only upside would be if he changed his mind about challenging it. If not for that, he'd be right up there with the receiving unit he has at his disposal.
Make no mistake, a lot of season leaders in passing yards are quarterbacks that play for great teams. At the same time, a quarterback with a dazzling stat line might be a byproduct of a team that lacks balance on offense. Since 2006, six season leaders in passing yards were quarterbacks on teams that didn't even crack double-digits in wins. That makes it so we should at least look a little off-the-grid when scouting candidates for 2016 passing yards leader.
We isolated some of our favorite picks for this award below, with a breakdown on why that QB is a good choice. Remember—it's wide open. A dozen quarterbacks were within 800 yards of the lead last season. That is followed by the full list of odds for NFL quarterbacks to lead the league in passing yards this season. Take a look!
Our Picks to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards
Drew Brees (+550): At 37, the aging gunslinger can still turn it loose, coming off another season where he led the season in passing yards. He still has talent at the receiver position, but also has a slew of pass-catching backs like Mark Ingram. If his skill players can stay healthy, look for Brees to be in the mix to win his 7th passing title since 2006.
Ben Roethlisberger (+750): During the offseason, we keep hearing about different players Big Ben was counting on going down with injuries, suspensions, and retirements. Gone are guys like retired Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant, who was suspended for the season. Now we hear Le'Veon Bell is facing a 4-game suspension, with Ladarius Green leaving a void at tight end if he decides to call it a career because of concussion symptoms. But his offense is still stacked to the rim and in just 12 games last season, he still managed to nearly clear 4000 yards. If he can stay healthy (no guarantee), he should be right in the mix in this category.
Philip Rivers (+900): OK, we're going with some chalk here—we admit it. We also like the idea that we can go into the season with Brees-Roethlisberger-Rivers, have just one of them lead the league in passing yards, and still walk away with nice profit. Rivers will be depended on to carry the entire SD offense, especially if Melvin Gordon doesn't help them forge a ground-game in his second season behind a better line. But Rivers has a ton of aerial weapons and even when the Chargers are getting hammered, he'll still put up a ton of yards.
Eli Manning (+1100): He added a nice rookie receiver in Sterling Shepard, bolstering an already-explosive receiver crew with Odell Beckham and possibly a resurgent Victor Cruz. With a lack of a run-game, Manning will be called upon to do most of the offense's heavy-lifting and should have an impressive stat-line by the end of the season.
Carson Palmer (+1200): He wasn't very far off with 4671 yards passing in 2015. It's hard to believe he's 36 and in his 14th season, but he looks as good as ever and his aerial package should be as potent if not better than last season. At his disposal are Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown, a good tight end in Darren Fells and good pass-catching out of the backfield with David Johnson.
Ryan Tannehill (+3300): We went with one long-shot and made Tannehill the pick. It might be a better selection than what appears on paper. First of all, he's 33-to-1. A new and more offensively-oriented coach who has a good history of working with quarterbacks in Adam Gase should help Tannehill improve. His passing totals have gone up in each of his four seasons, which is a good sign. And last year, he threw for a very-respectable 4208 yards. For this to materialize, he will need a receiver crew to really blossom and for potential to get fulfilled because he might not have the horses. Still, not at all bad for a 33-to-1 shot.
PLACE YOUR BETS ON WHO WILL LEAD THE NFL IN PASSING YARDS USING THESE ODDS TODAY AT THE WEB'S BEST SPORTSBOOK: 5DIMES
Odds to Have the Most NFL Passing Yards in 2016
Drew Brees +550
Ben Roethlisberger +750
Philip Rivers +900
Matt Ryan +1000
Aaron Rodgers +1100
Eli Manning +1100
Carson Palmer +1200
Andrew Luck +1400
Kirk Cousins +2000
Matthew Stafford +2100
Blake Bortles +2200
Tom Brady +2500
Joe Flacco +2600
Ryan Tannehill +3300
Derek Carr +3300
Russell Wilson +3300
Ryan Fitzpatrick +3500
Tony Romo +4000
Brock Osweiler +5000
Cam Newton +5000
Jameis Winston +5000
Andy Dalton +5000
Jay Cutler +5750
Marcus Mariota +6250
Alex Smith +7500
Teddy Bridgewater +8500
Robert Griffin III +10000
Sam Bradford +12500
Mark Sanchez +12500
Tyrod Taylor +12500
Jared Goff +13500
Blaine Gabbert +15000
Geno Smith +15000
Carson Wentz +17500
Colin Kaepernick +20000
Josh McCown +27500
Jimmy Garoppolo +27500
Paxton Lynch +30000
