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2017 NFL Alternative Win Total Bets

2017 NFL Regular Season Alternative Win Total Bets

By Loot, NFL Handicapper,

Every season, the bookie puts out a wins total for all NFL teams. The number is the projected number of wins a team will have in the regular season. All you have to do is pick over or under. In addition to those bets are alternative win totals—an amount of wins that is different from the regular season total wins bet. That number represents a more-extreme stance with odds that reflect that. Let's look at an example of a regular win total bet and then an alternative line.

Standard Win Total Bet
Arizona Cardinals Win Over 8 Games -130
Arizona Cardinals Win Under 8 Games +110

Alternative Win Total Bet
Arizona Cardinals Win Over 6.5 Games -485
Arizona Cardinals Win Under 6.5 Games +385

Above, you see odds for two different bets. The first one is the standard wins total bet, with close odds for either side of the bet. The general total for Arizona in the 2017 season is eight regular season wins. But we see an alternative line with the total being 6.5 wins. It's not a major difference from 8 wins, but the odds move pretty drastically. Betting Arizona to win over 8 games is just -130, but to bet they win over 6.5, which is basically 7, the odds plunge to -485. If you think the Cardinals will struggle this season, the alternative total offers a real score at +385 if they win 6 or fewer games.

So, you can see there is some upside to these NFL bets. If your read on a team is just different than what the common perception is saying, these alternative win totals can offer some interesting value. And it's good for both the chalky and long-shot player. You can take a team you think will do well and reduce the number of games they need to win. You will be laying a bigger number, but it's an interesting move for those who don't mind laying the big odds. And if you can sense a team is due for a downturn, you can bet under on an alternative win total and receive a nice underdog price on that wager.

Listing every team's list of alternative season win totals would be awfully cumbersome. Each team has a group of different alternative win lines and it would fill up many pages to lay out all of them. Below, we honed in a small group of the ones we most like. Take a look and see if any catch your eye. Good luck!

CAR regular season wins over 10½ +268
Granted, the Panthers winning 11 games in 2017 is asking a lot, especially considering how off-key they were in 2016 when they were just 6-10. The previous season, however, they were conference champions and some added firepower on offense could help them recapture their prior form. And if they do, it pays pretty darn well.

CHI regular season wins over 6½ +256
A 3-13 record in 2016 hardly inspires confidence when forecasting a season with 7 or better wins this season. But we see that injuries were a major part of the equation. There were some major signs of promise, including a good young back in Jordan Howard. With some better health and some rookies blossoming ahead of schedule, a 7-9 season might not be so out-of-range.

DAL regular season wins over 11½ +394
We agree with the general sentiment that Dallas saw a lot go right last season and to expect that to repeat could be asking for too much. But to be getting nearly 4-to-1 on a 12-win season from a 13-3 team from last year on a team that didn't really appear to lose that much is hard to pass up.

DET regular season wins over 9½ +448
Sure, the Lions winning 10 games this season might be a bit lofty, but look at the odds! A +448 price is hard to pass up for a team that seems to be heading in the right direction. They're not that far off after a 9-7 season. A little more consistency, a defense that continues to improve, and some more offensive pop could see the Lions in double-digit win territory in 2017.

KC regular season wins over 10½ +254
With 12 wins in 2016 and 11 in 2015, a similar season would yield a fat +254 in returns this season—not too shabby. The Chiefs are a team that seems to always get more out of what they have than what people suspect will be the case. And it's not entirely clear why we won't see more of that in 2017.

LAC regular season wins over 8½ +252
Another team snake-bitten by injuries in recent seasons, a new city and a fresh start in LA with a new head coach could give way to a new lease on life. A healthy defense could result in one of the better Charger units in recent seasons. And better breaks in terms of injuries should also see the offense in fine form. Some things need to line up right, but the Chargers could be on the move in '17.

NE regular season wins under 10½ +439
OK, on this one, we're forecasting a less-rosy outcome. But a 10-win season for a team coming off a Super Bowl win might not be so nutty. And the odds are certainly robust enough to warrant at least pondering it. It really wouldn't require earth-shattering events for the Pats to slip a little this season.

NOR regular season wins over 9½ +318
Despite a defense that has bottomed out at times over the past several seasons, the Saints still aren't that far off from being a 10-win team. The offense can still do a lot of damage, but what really inspires some level of promise is a defense that was revamped across many areas and could be appreciably better than what we've been seeing out the Saints recently.

HOU regular season wins under 7½ +262
On one hand, the Texans get a lot out of what they have and those teams can't be overlooked. At the same time, the recent Houston recipe for success is a tenuous one and one that can be easily disrupted, especially with the rest of the division expected to be nipping at their heels more in 2017.


NYJ regular season wins over 5½ +272
The Jets saw almost nothing go their way last season and still won 5 games. One more win would result in a +272 payment. The previous season, they won 10 games. The Jets have some definite issues, including a threadbare receiving crew and QB issues, but they are also a team that might not be as bad as advertised and a 6-10 season or better would lead to a nice payout.

JAX regular season wins under 5½ +242
To be getting +242 on a team to not win 6 games when they haven't won more than 5 games since 2010 might be too much to pass up. There are some positive signs out of Jacksonville and they appear to be on the rise. But there were a few times in the past 6 seasons where that appeared to also be the case and it didn't pan out. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and make NFL prop bets by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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