San Francisco 49ers (14-4 SU, 13-5 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS)
NFC Conference Championship
Date/Time: Sunday, January 19, 2014 at 6:30PM EST
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SF +3.5/SEA -3.5
Over/Under Total: 39.5
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On Sunday in the NFC Conference Championship Game, the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks with the winner going to the Super Bowl. This is the third straight year the 49ers have made it to the conference title game, as they won last season and now look for consecutive Super Bowl berths. To do so, they will have to beat the top-seed in the NFC, a Seattle team that is the full package and almost unbeatable at home.
This is the best rivalry in the NFL right now--two top teams from the same division, both considered Super Bowl-worthy teams. Having played twice this season as divisional rivals, these teams played with very different results. Their first game, on this same field, was a non-competitive 29-3 romp for the Seahawks. But that was on September 15 and a lot has changed, as the 49ers are a ton better at the moment. And a December 8 home win at San Francisco showed they can get the job done, though that was at Candlestick. It’s a different ball of wax in Seattle.
San Francisco at this moment is a galvanized team on a mission. They survived two very difficult road playoff tasks, first going into subzero temperatures to beat the Packers at Lambeau and then making a 12-4 home Carolina team look ordinary. Seattle is an awesome team that is hard to beat, especially at home. But if you had to identify one of these teams as being the more battle-tested team that has been galvanized in the furnace of competition, it would have to be the Niners.
Everything looks good for the Niners except one thing. Sure, they are a peaking team that has won 8 straight. All their key guys are in place and appear to be in their best form and they are loaded in the personnel department. They made a home Carolina squad that had won 11 of 12 games look like a mid-pack team. But they have to go to Seattle, where they have struggled massively. In the end, it comes down to whether they can beat Seattle at home. It’s not so much about if they beat the Seahawks, but can they do it at CenturyLink.
The Seahawks’ win over the Saints offered some hope. From an admittedly-simplistic standpoint, if the Saints could come within a single score, San Francisco should be able to do one better. The Seattle offense isn’t exactly flying high right now and the way the 49ers’ “D” is playing, they could run into some serious problems on Sunday. It’s perhaps not coincidental that the only loss at home that the Seahawks suffered in the past two years came in week 16 this season. They seemed good enough to get some separation from the Saints last week, but New Orleans was in that game at the end.
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On both sides of the ball, these teams have some things in common. Both teams rely on a defense that is good both technically and from an intimidation standpoint. They’re coached by guys who found their greatest previous success in the Pac-12. And on offense, they have mobile quarterbacks who both rely on a bruising back and a nice cast of receivers. But neither offense has much game-breaking ability. It just seems that offensively, the Niners have a little more on the ball right now. Not by much, but in what might be a close game, it doesn’t take much.
Can the 49ers will themselves through conditions that seem ultra-difficult? They have been outscored 71-16 in their last two visits to CenturyLink Field. That’s a lot to overcome. It’s not like they weren’t trying hard to win those games, though the stakes are obviously higher now. Sure, they’re going to say the right things, like how they are relishing the chance. It’s believable and while part of us wants to get behind a peaking team that is playing at its full potential, it’s hard to shake recent images of the 49ers’ failure in this northwest cauldron of hysteria. One doesn’t want to put a bet down on Frisco here and tune in to see anything resembling the last two games.
When looking at two teams in a title game, you look for different things in the regular season and playoffs than what could tip your opinion--things like momentum. One of the things you’d like to see is a team that is raising its level of play to accommodate the rapidly-escalating stakes--a team that is rising to the occasion and crescendoing in timely fashion. In that regard, the nod goes to the Niners. It’s a team that has appeared in different forms this season, with their share of peaks and valleys. Seattle had a fantastic season and kept play at a high level, but one gets the sense they are more flatlining into this game, whereas the 49ers enter this game surely at their high-water mark.
Seattle at home could just be too good, even if you suspect their offense is in a bit of a funk. If they play the second half against Frisco like they did against the Saints, this could be trouble for the Seahawks. And the 49ers’ defense is a unit that could make that happen, especially if the Saints were able to put Seattle in that mode. I see a close game here, a real grind where the winner will certainly need the two weeks given to get ready for the big game. I suspect it will come right down to the end with a field goal perhaps spelling the difference. There is something special about this 49ers team and it would be a major surprise to see them fall flat, even in a stadium where they’ve been getting killed lately. A leap-of-faith is required here and Seattle could very well be the best team in the NFL, but I’m taking the 49ers and the points.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting the San Francisco 49ers plus 3.5 points.
