Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, September 26, 2016 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: ATL +3/NO -3
Over/Under Total: 53.5
The Atlanta Falcons come to the Superdome on Sunday to face the New Orleans Saints in key week three NFC South action. The Saints have gotten off to a rough 0-2 start, losing to the Raiders by one in week one, before losing, 16-13, the Giants on Sunday. Atlanta was expected to go to 0-2 after losing in week one at home to Tampa, but they came up with the big road win in Oakland on Sunday to move to 1-1. The Falcons are hoping the win signals a reversal in momentum for the team. Prior to Sunday, they had lost 8 of their last ten dating back to last season. How will they do against the Saints this week?
As divisional rivals, these teams play twice a season. Atlanta dropped both games last season to the Saints, including a 31-21 loss at the Superdome. The win against Oakland was a good sign, with the Falcons using the ground game and aerial attack to pile on 35 points. It was a back-and-forth game; with the Falcons taking a 28-21 lead in the 4th quarter when Justin Hardy hauled in a deflected pass for a touchdown. Another TD make it 35-21, before the Raiders added a score to narrow it to 35-28, but they couldn't threaten again.
Offensively, Atlanta had a slew of positive developments in week two. Matt Ryan threw for three touchdowns, the last one being most fortunate with the defection and the catch. Ryan was 4 yards short of 400 and moved the offense with ease. Running back Devonta Freeman, long mired in a slump, ran for 93 yards, while Tevin Coleman added 46 yards and a touchdown run. WR Julio Jones was big with 106 yards and a TD, with Jacob Tamme and Hardy also catching touchdown balls. Rookie Austin Hooper showed promise with 84 big yards on 3 catches. Eight different players had multiple receptions on Sunday, as the Falcons piled on 528 yards of total offense. They're hoping Jones will be at 100% after suffering a calf injury that has him listed day-to-day.
The ATL defense hasn't been that great with 31 points allowed to the Bucs and 28 to the Raiders on Sunday. On Sunday, they gave up 454 yards of total offense and the secondary has now given up 7 touchdowns through the air in just two games. After doing well against the Tampa run in week 1, they gave up over 6 yards per carry against Oakland. But they still gave up only 28 points and were fairly adept in tightening up when it mattered most. Still, as they're poised to face a still-lethal aerial attack in New Orleans, it's time for the pass-defense to find another gear. Dan Quinn is in his second year as head coach. Last week was only his third win since week 5 of last season. The former coordinator of the feared Seattle defenses of 2013-14 needs to start seeing some of his handiwork pay off with this Atlanta "D."
Losing on a last-second surprise 2-point conversion against the Raiders at home to start the season, the Saints lost another close one last Sunday in a 16-13 loss to the Giants. After giving up a lot in week one, it was a good development for the team to hold the Giants offense to so little, including just 3 field goals. The Giants' lone TD occurred on an interception run back by Janoris Jenkins. The defense held the Giants to 64 yards on 32 carries, though they did give up 368 yards to Eli Manning. That made it all the more incredible that the Saints allowed just three field goals on the day. And that's with a secondary suffering with injuries suddenly, finishing the game with reserves. They recovered three fumbles that were key. With their performance, you'd have figured the Saints would win, but the normally-explosive Saints' offense was off-key for most of the game. The Giants scoring the game-winning FG after a big Manning pass to Cruz was a bad late-development, but you can't say they didn't do their job on this side of the ball. For once, it wasn't really their fault.
Granted, the Giants' defense is looking vastly improved with a slew of free agent signings paying off. But 13 points is not going to cut it for the Saints. Drew Brees was 29-for-44 with a TD throw to Willie Snead. The aerial attack just wasn't popping and with Mark Ingram only getting 9 carries, the ground-game didn't make an impact. Naturally, Brees can't be expected to have too many more games like this and with a shaky-looking ATL defense coming into town, is this a week for Brees to put up a more-typical stat-line?
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Urgency is pretty high for the Saints at 0-2, as another loss would put them in a really bad spot. This is a team that made a lot of offseason moves on defense to stop what looked like a negative trajectory after two 7-9 seasons in the last three years. Sean Payton signed a big deal and surely doesn't want to follow that with another tough season where they're spending all their time trying to recoup after tough losses. They lost both their games and by a combined total of four points. The defense has shown signs of coming around, but will need to start avoiding late-game dramatics going against them. Both losses were of a painful nature and they have to find a way to bounce back.
It's a tough divisional game where these teams usually give each other a good game. The Superdome is a tough road game, but the Falcons are pretty comfortable there, with "Matty Ice" having been successful there before. I just see a certain edge on a New Orleans team that is really pining for a win. In a tight affair, I see the Saints doing enough to pull it out for the win and cover at home for their first win of the season.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the New Orleans Saints minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting Monday Night Football from your own home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
