Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Week 16 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, December 23, 2013 at 830PM EST
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ATL +13/SF -13
Over/Under Total: 45
On Monday Night Football, the Atlanta Falcons come to Candlestick to take on the San Francisco 49ers. Obviously, those who scheduled this game were hoping for a higher-stakes matchup between two teams fighting for a premier playoff position. At 10-4, the 49ers have held up their end of the deal. At 4-10, the Falcons have not. Even with 10 wins, the Niners are not going to catch Seattle for the division title and can’t afford to ease off the gas now.
2013 has been a bitter pill to swallow for Atlanta. On the heels of 36 wins in the past 3 seasons, they were hoping to take another step forward this year. After all, they came a few plays from going to the Super Bowl last season. At one point in this dreary campaign, they lost 8 out of 9 games. Sure, they’ve taken some knocks, namely losing a top receiver in Julio Jones. Still, teams have overcome more before and there is no way to spin this as anything but a horrible season bordering on the grotesque. Even the most-ardent Atlanta antagonists would have been floored before the year if they knew the Falcons were going to begin the season 2-9.
With the Falcons entirely off-the-radar, they have managed their best mini-spurt this year by winning 2 of their last 3 games. They beat Buffalo, lost by a point to the Packers at Lambeau, and then beat the Redskins last week. It’s a start. It at least shows there is some pride in that locker-room amongst a group of guys who have to be deflated over how this season has gone. They seem to sense they would do themselves a big favor by at least salvaging a good finish.
San Francisco has re-announced their arrival in the past month with 4 straight wins, including a big victory over the once-beaten Seahawks. Their 4 losses this season came in the form of a pair of two-game losing streaks. Both of those fires were put out with long winning streaks. This defense has just kept getting better. Since September 22, the most they’ve allowed in a single game was 23 points. And their offense has received a nice boost from returning WR Michael Crabtree, who was so instrumental in last year’s Super Bowl run. RB Frank Gore is once again over 1000 yards and is running hungry late in the season. WR Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis are having big years and it should get even better with Crabtree back in tow. Still, this defense is the undisputed strength of the team, a multi-dimensionally excellent unit that flourishes both against the run and pass. It just helps immensely that this offense has kicked it up a notch over the course of the season. For a while there, they were the last-ranked defense in the NFL. It’s not high-flying now by any means, but the greater overall variety will help them now and as they go forward into the playoffs.
Responsible for the Falcons mini-upsurge is that some guys on offense have been finally stepping up. Steven Jackson, while not the force of consistency he was in St. Louis, is at least showing some signs of life. Veteran TE Tony Gonzalez has been playing well, perhaps enlivened by the light at the end of the tunnel now in plain sight. WR Harry Douglas continues to have a good season as he closes in on 1000 yards. Even Roddy White, banged-up much of this season, has 23 catches in the past 3 games. It’s a case of too-little/too-late and doesn’t really cushion the blow of an under-achieving season, but things are beginning to shape up for the Falcons.
A surging Niners team at home still fighting for a playoff spot is a tougher test, however. Beating Buffalo in overtime, staying close to Green Bay, and beating the Redskins is nice and everything, but this is a much more difficult proposition. In the Falcons’ favor is a nice point-spread of 13 points, a MNF spotlight, and the fact that the Niners may recognize their fate in terms of not being able to overtake Seattle. At 10-4, they’re not a lock, but still have an inside track to a wild card spot. They would need to lose their last 2 and have Arizona win 2 in a row--and their finale just so happens to be against the Cardinals.
The Falcons may benefit from what a win against a streaking team on Monday Night Football would represent. A win is a way to say to the world “Yeah, we know we stunk this season, but don’t count us out for next year.” One should expect them to have gotten a little confidence from the last few weeks and put forth a respectable showing. The Niners are surging--their offense is looking better and that “D” is a handful, especially at home. At some point, it may become a demoralizing situation for Atlanta if the 49ers’ defense is in full-bloom. I see an electric home crowd in the regular season home finale at Candlestick, with the Niners pulling away late for a comfortable victory.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the San Francisco 49ers minus 13 points.
