Baltimore Ravens (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado Stadium
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Bal +8/Den -8
Over/Under Total: 48.5
In the opening game of the 2013-14 NFL season, The Baltimore Ravens travel to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos in a highly-anticipated Thursday night affair. In this matchup, you get last year’s Super Bowl Champion against the AFC favorite to get to the big game this season. It is a rematch from last season’s double-overtime divisional playoff game--won by the Ravens. This game will give us some insight as to where these teams stand. And there are a lot of question marks, especially for a defending champion and conference favorite.
It’s no secret Baltimore took some major hits in the offseason following their Super Bowl victory. Sure, their offense stepped up, making them less-reliant on their “D,” but that defense was a major part of their success. Not only do they lose key manpower, but a lot of leadership left, namely with the retirement of Ray Lewis. In addition, key parts like Ed Reed, Bernard Pollard, Dannell Ellerbe, and Paul Kruger, among others, are now gone. On offense, they lose their center in Matt Birk to retirement and WR Anquan Boldin. As if that weren’t enough, their second-leading receiver, TE Dennis Pitta, was lost for the season in training camp.
On one hand, the news out of Baltimore being exclusively bad could lead to people incorrectly assuming Baltimore is going to be mediocre. But goodness, that’s a ton of losses and until shown something different, it’s hard to imagine them approaching last season’s form. But a dash of optimism and holding out a sliver of hope that they can still get it done might not be so misplaced. There are still options on offense. In addition, the voids on “D” are not being filled with slouches. Elvis Dumervil, who will be facing his former team, is a top pass rusher. DE Chris Canty is looking to bounce back with a new team. And the draft provided two possible stars in S Matt Elam and LB Arthur Brown. Let’s not forget guys like Ngata, Webb, Graham, Smith, and Suggs are still there. A lot of teams around the league would like to have all those pieces in place that Baltimore has on defense.
It’s not like the Broncos emerged from the preseason unscathed. First there was the Elvis Dumervil debacle, a costly loss in the pass rushing department, exacerbated by Von Miller now suspended for the first 6 games of 2013. The center position is not solidified with the loss of Dan Koppen, which followed losing JD Walton, meaning Manning will be working with the third choice and even though Peyton should make it work--it’s not a good sign. Denver’s corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Champ Bailey are coming into the season dinged-up. So Denver has their own problems.
Denver is still a rightful favorite and this offense should be explosive. Manning returns a pair of 1000-yard receivers and gets an extra boost in the slot with the addition of Wes Welker. It’s difficult to picture that not working out. And even though there is somewhat of a logjam at running back, they should be improved with rookie Montee Ball and speedy Ronnie Hillman being in his second year. That doesn’t mean the Denver running game isn’t a potentially-iffy part of this offense. Despite the drama at the center position, this line should be super-tough, especially at the bookends.
Denver is at home and their offense might be tough on a Baltimore defense that hasn’t yet had a chance to find its bearings. You’d like to see Baltimore’s defense have a chance to hit its stride before being thrown into the deep end right from the get-go with Peyton Manning and Company. The Ravens have actually retooled admirably on “D,” but right now it’s no gimme that all the impressive names will congeal into one cohesive unit.
Denver not having Dumervil and Miller is bad, but Baltimore losing Boldin and Pitta is maybe even more troublesome. Boldin was there go-to clutch performer and Pitta was crucial in third-down situations. Ed Dickson, the other tight end is hurting and recent signee Dallas Clark has to show he can still get it done. WR Torrey Smith, a fine number-two receiver, will have to show he can be the top dog. Still, ultra-dangerous Jacoby Jones is still a viable weapon and with Ray Rice and Joe Flacco, is the prognosis really so dreadful?
There are so many possibilities in this game that contradict the current perception of these teams. The Denver defense is missing a key component of last year’s success, but who’s to say someone won’t step up and fill the void and get after the quarterback? And with everyone shoveling dirt on Baltimore, will they have an edge not commonly seen from defending Super Bowl Champions? Rather than a Super Bowl hangover, maybe we’re going to see a team that has a chip on its shoulder with something to prove. It’s hard to remember a defending champ held in such low regard.
At face value, the 8-point spread appears to over-congratulatory to Denver. A banged-up team that didn’t seem to catch a break in the offseason is an 8-point favorite over the defending Super Bowl Champions? And with a decimated pass rush, you’d think Flacco would perhaps be able to get some good things done. That’s one of the last guys you want to give time to work. Nevertheless, a scenario where the Denver offense really goes to town on the Ravens isn’t so hard to envision, either.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Denver Broncos laying 8 points.
