Baltimore Ravens (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Week 15 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, December 16, 2013 at 830PM EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BALT +6/DET -6
Over/Under Total: 48
On Monday Night Football, the Baltimore Ravens come to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions. Both teams are 7-6 and have been equally mediocre at the betting windows at 6-7 against-the-spread. Detroit lost a heartbreaker at Philly on Sunday, playing on a surface that looked like the Yukon. Baltimore, meanwhile, won a dramatic come-from-behind game at Minnesota on Sunday. Now at 7-6, they are in the wild card picture and have shown they are fighting hard to stay relevant the year after winning the Super Bowl.
A lot of the things that made people expect a Super Bowl hangover from Baltimore have in fact transpired. The defense has taken a step back, they lack depth at receiver, Flacco and Rice are at less than sterling form, and all the personnel losses have materialized negatively. But with 3 straight wins, they’ve sprung back to life and into playoff contention. This veteran team has come together well at just the right time. Sure, beating the Jets, Steelers, and Vikings is hardly cause for wild celebration, but they’re showing heart. Sunday’s game attests to that, with the Ravens able to score a much-needed touchdown to win the game, right after the Vikings went ahead with a 79-yard touchdown pass with just 45 seconds left in the game. They’re beginning to show a flair for coming out on the sunny side of late-game dramatics. Maybe the pendulum is swinging the other way after the Ravens came out on the short end of some close games this season. In 4 of their 6 losses, the margin was a field goal or less.
Detroit really needs to find a reservoir of positivity after caving against the Eagles in an important divisional game on Sunday. They had a 14-0 lead until late in the 4th quarter. They had the first player in a generation to return both a punt and kick for a touchdown. And still, they blew it. Not only that, but they gave up 148 yards rushing to LeSean McCoy--in the 4th quarter alone! The Eagles scored 28 4th-quarter points in ridiculous conditions. Instead of a strong 4th quarter in a game that was critical, Detroit inexplicably devolved into a high school team.
That’s the last impression people will have before betting on this game and maybe that paints an unfair portrait. Detroit has issues and some of those were evident late in Sunday’s game. But let’s face it--those conditions were pretty unusual and maybe emerging with any concrete negative takeaways based on that game is faulty. But other than a Thanksgiving thumping of a Rodgers-less Packers, the Lions have been struggling--losing 3 out of 4. In those losses, they gave up 95 points--to the Steelers, Bucs, and Eagles. Stafford has been inaccurate in spots, as well. But rather than point fingers, let’s just say the Lions suffer from the same thing has plagued countless teams this year--a nagging and lingering case of inconsistency. They haven’t lost or won more than two games in a row yet this year.
At their best this season, the Lions have one of the more potent passing games in the business, featuring the top receiver in football in Calvin Johnson. Their improved run-game is a big part of why they’re in playoff contention as opposed to this time last season. Joique bell has been picking up steam, but Reggie Bush re-aggravated a calf injury during warmups on Sunday and is listed as questionable. Their defensive front has been pretty robust, making what happened on Sunday a bit extra surprising.
Each team’s urgency should be sky-high. Baltimore is fighting for what amounts to one wild card slot. Cincinnati is probably out-of-reach for division honors and the Chiefs are a virtual lock for one of the two wild cards. Baltimore is well-positioned for the lone remaining spot, but a loss here propels a gaggle of teams into the mix and makes getting into the postseason highly problematic for Baltimore. But Detroit has a similarly-thin margin for error. While their standing is stronger within their division, they have virtually no hope for a wild card. They’re going to have to outrun Chicago and Green Bay or they will return to their families in January.
So the picture is beginning to crystalize for these two teams. Simply put, they need to win and any slip-ups from here on out are ultra-costly. While there have been an abundance of disappointments this season, Detroit might be in a good spot. They should react to this situation at home. Johnson should beat up on the Baltimore corners, the run “D” should be able to regain their footing, and a frothing home crowd that knows the stakes of this game should help buoy the Lions. But what “should” be isn’t always the case with Detroit. Still, I sense things going the Lions’ way on Monday.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Detroit Lions minus 6 points.
