Baltimore Ravens (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: BAL -1/JAC +1
Over/Under Total: 47.5
The Baltimore Ravens come into EverBank Stadium on Sunday to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. For a team that won 5 games last season, the Ravens have to be happy with their 2-0 start, as they've also covered both spreads so far this season. The Jaguars are looking for something positive after a deflating 38-14 loss to the Chargers on Sunday. At 0-2, they need to make something happen or the projections of improvement will begin to ring a bit empty. Who comes out ahead in this one?
The Jaguars gave the Packers a good game at home in week one, losing narrowly, 27-23, in a game where they were competitive throughout. That was not repeated in week two against the Chargers, who got off to a 35-0 lead before the Jags added a pair of pointless touchdowns at the end. Neither side of the ball performed very well and it's not always to figure out why, especially on offense where a lot of talent exists.
The Jags' offense just doesn't get the results befitting their talent. They have a good young quarterback in Blake Bortles, two top-notch receivers in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, a good tight end in Julius Thomas, a young back in TJ Yeldon, and it never seems to get them anywhere. In Borls' career, he has thrown for over 300 yards eight times. He had 329 yards on Sunday. In those 8 games, the Jags are 0-8. There is definitely a weird Bermuda Triangle between production and points with this team. In addition to his 329 yards, however, were two picks and a lost fumble.
When you look at the box scores with the Jaguars, you will often be misled. On Sunday, for example, we see the 329 yards for Bortles, they averaged 6 yards per rush, Allen Hurns caught ten balls, with four receivers over 50 yards in the air. And still, they went scoreless for the first three quarters. They only scored when the lead was so big that even the Chargers figured they were safe. In he entire game, the Jacksonville offense converted a total of two third downs. Maybe they can get a boost from Chris Ivory when he returns to the lineup, though his status is unclear as of press time.
Defensively, the Jaguars weren't too sharp. Granted, it was a tough road spot with Philip Rivers sharp on the afternoon. Against the Packers at home in week one, they were far better, never letting the formidable Green Bay offense get untracked. They gave up 104 yards to Melvin Gordon and a touchdown, while Rivers threw for four scores. The Chargers converted over half of their third down plays and pretty much were able to pick apart the Jacksonville defense, which will need to be more like they were in week one. Maybe they can get on the right track at home this week against the Ravens.
The Ravens nearly fell to the Browns on Sunday, with Joe Flacco engineering a brilliant comeback in a 25-20 win. With over 4 minutes left in the first quarter on Sunday, Baltimore was already down 20-2. The defense kept Cleveland off the board for the rest of the game, while Flacco worked the team back into the mix. Flacco was over 300 yards with two touchdowns, both caught by new downfield target Mike Wallace. Now healthy, tight end Dennis Pitta has re-emerged as a top Flacco target with 102 yards on 9 receptions. Steve Smith, Sr. had 64 yards receiving. Looking ahead, the run game has looked deflated in two games, with Justin Forsett no longer having the magic he had in 2014 and Terrance West not breaking off anything meaningful.
Other than that first quarter where the Ravens gave up 20 to the Browns, the defense has looked really good. That first quarter was brutal, with Josh McCown connecting with all his targets and Isaiah Crowell lighting up the "D" through the run-game. But over the final 49+ minutes of the game, the Browns were unable to score. In week one, a Buffalo team that scored 31 against a good Jets' defense only put up 7 points against Baltimore. The defense has benefitted with the addition of Eric Weddle at safety, with young CJ Mosley really earning his check on Sunday with the late-game dramatics, as he picked off McCown as the Browns threatened late.
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Still, there is a vulnerability to the Ravens. The defense has looked good for the most part, but the sample size has been small and they showed flashes of a defense from last season that gave up over 400 points. Some of the initial signs are good on both sides of the ball, namely with the prolific aerial attack, where a gaggle of viable targets are looking for touches in this offense. Will they be able to create a run-game, however? Through two games, that looks like a sore point with this offense and we recall that the best Ravens offenses are ones that can control the game with a running-attack. It doesn't have to be great, but they can't afford to be too one-dimensional, either.
Baltimore seems on a mission of sorts this season, following a 5-11 season that was a source of great embarrassment for this team. One shouldn't count on a decreased sense of urgency after two nice wins. But the Jags are probably feeling a bit of urgency. Again, an upsurge was suspected this season and Gus Bradley is probably not too far away from the hatchet if things continue at this rate. I look for the Jaguars offense to thrive more at home and get their first win of the season.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 1 point. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Ravens vs. Jaguars game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
