Betting on NFC Teams to Make the Playoffs
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
All 16 teams in the conference are trying to get to the NFC playoffs. Only six will make it. Betting on which of these teams will be among the half-dozen to get into the 2017 postseason is a nice bet to make. Sometimes you might feel a team is just ready to peak or fall off for whatever reason. You might not be able to pick exactly which games they will win or lose, but it's more of an overall feeling. This bet allows you to capitalize off those feelings you have on certain teams. A nice feature of this wager is that it gives you a long-lasting affect, as you will be involved in all games that teams plays, or at least until their playoff situation crystallizes.
When you're making this bet, try to think in terms of value. Obviously, our projections on whether a team will simply make it to the postseason are of pinnacle importance. But we need to weigh probability against odds. In other words, if we think a team has a 2-to-1 chance to make the playoffs and they're getting 4-to-1, we would make that bet. We might think that team will get into the postseason in a straight-up sense, but the value is too good to pass up.
In order to properly gauge whether a team will make the playoffs, it's important to take the full scope of concerns into consideration. Refresh yourself on that team's various player moves during the offseason and think about how that will impact the team in the upcoming season. Look at the division in which they play. Not only will they be playing those teams twice, they will also need to out-leg them in the standings or rely on a wild card spot. Look at the rest of the conference and consider the amount of teams at the top and how hard it's going to be to crack into that rotation.
Here are the odds to make the 2017 playoffs, followed by our commentary on whether it's worth betting or not:
Dallas Cowboys make playoffs -175
Dallas Cowboys won't make playoffs +155
Take: While the stars might not line up as well as last season for the Cowboys, we still think -175 is a pretty good value on Dallas making the playoffs this season.
New York Giants make playoffs +110
New York Giants won't make playoffs -130
Take: The fact that the Giants not making the playoffs is favored over them making it offers some good value for those who are taking an optimistic view on the Giants this season.
Philadelphia Eagles make playoffs +185
Philadelphia Eagles won't make playoffs -225
Take: Signs were mixed last season, but +185 isn't really that great when they're still looking up at two playoff teams in their division. Still, something tells us they just might make a run.
Washington Redskins make playoffs +290
Washington Redskins won't make playoffs -350
Take: Not many teams had a less-productive offseason, with a big part of their aerial attack departed. Still, if the Cowboys and Giants dip, they're still in there with a look.
Green Bay Packers make playoffs -320
Green Bay Packers won't make playoffs +260
Take: They look to be a playoff team, but one that can't withstand a lot of bad news this season if they want to make it. Either side of this bet can be justified on some levels.
Minnesota Vikings make playoffs +165
Minnesota Vikings won't make playoffs -190
Take: Having shown good signs the past few seasons, but unable to string it together, the Vikes could be poised to make a push this season. They have some definite betting appeal at +165.
Detroit Lions make playoffs +290
Detroit Lions won't make playoffs -350
Take: Another NFC North team that has shown flashes of getting it together without being consistent enough to truly thrive. Considering how hot they got last season, +290 is a pretty fat price and hard to pass up.
Chicago Bears make playoffs +1000
Chicago Bears won't make playoffs -1500
Take: The Bears look to be up against it, especially in a division where their 3 rivals look to be pretty good. +1000 almost seems like not enough and no one wants to lay -1500 chalk and wait months for it to deliver.
Carolina Panthers make playoffs +105
Carolina Panthers won't make playoffs -125
Take: Depends on how you look at it. Last season may have been an aberration where everything went wrong. With some added help on offense, Carolina at +105 isn't a bad value, but there's only room for so many teams and the division has gotten stronger.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers make playoffs +175
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won't make playoffs -210
Take: One of the most-improved teams from last season, one looking to time the Bucs' ascent could find +175 to be attractive enough to pull the trigger. It's not easy, as they haven't been to playoffs in a decade, but Tampa is on the way up.
Atlanta Falcons make playoffs -135
Atlanta Falcons won't make playoffs +115
Take: A lot went right for the Falcons last season and some are within sound reason to forecast a downturn. Still, -135 for a team this good is not an altogether bad price to lay on this proposition.
New Orleans Saints make playoffs +255
New Orleans Saints won't make playoffs -310
Take: It's never easy to project how massive personnel changes will manifest, but after going 7-9 a few seasons in a row with no "D," some sweeping changes on that side of the ball could make the Saints a bargain at +255.
Seattle Seahawks make playoffs -475
Seattle Seahawks won't make playoffs +380
Take: We think -475 is far too chalky for the Seahawks to make the playoffs. If you're thinking Seattle could come back to the pack this season, +380 isn't a bad price. When teams are perennial playoff teams, it's a matter of time before the wheels come off.
BET ON WHICH NFC TEAMS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AT DISCOUNTED ODDS -105 TODAY AT 5DIMES
Arizona Cardinals make playoffs +165
Arizona Cardinals won't make playoffs -190
Take: Another team where you need to determine if last season was a fluke or a sign of a real downturn. For those who side with the former, +165 isn't bad for a team good enough to make the conference title game the previous season.
Los Angeles Rams make playoffs +800
Los Angeles Rams won't make playoffs -1250
Take: Some might be surprised to learn the Rams almost won 7 games last season with not a lot of things going right. Offense is still a major issue, but +800 is tantalizing for those looking to make the leap-of-faith.
San Francisco 49ers make playoffs +1250
San Francisco 49ers won't make playoffs -2000
Take: This is a hard one to bet. If you see the Niners making the playoffs, that's a hard position to justify. And -2000 that they won't isn't a terribly-exciting position to take on a futures bet. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting which NFC teams will make the postseason at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
