Buffalo Bills (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: MT&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BUF +3/BAL -3
Over/Under Total: 43
The Buffalo Bills come to MT&T Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens on opening Sunday in week one of the 2016 NFL season. The Bills have shown promise for the past two seasons, but need it to come together in a big way this season, so they can avoid their league-leading 17th straight year not being in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Ravens, look to bounce back after their first losing season under 9th-year head coach Jim Harbaugh. At 5-11, the only time they had a worse record was in their first season in Baltimore.
The Ravens are hoping the draft and a busy free agent signing period comes to fruition this season. They needed some new bodies in there, with the team having grown somewhat stale in the three seasons since they notched Super Bowl glory. In addition, they get some guys back from injury that should give the team a boost. Names like Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Sr., and Terrell Suggs are key veterans for this team and having them healthy is key.
Injuries really decimated the Ravens last season to the point where their late-season offense was virtually unrecognizable from the unit that began the season. It also doesn't help that their high draft picks of recent years haven't panned out. Injuries have kept WR Breshaud Perriman out of action. Matt Elam hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. Luckily, some of their later-rounds draft picks have panned out or the pickings would be really slim as far as youth on this squad. Smith, Sr. is questionable for the opener.
Still, having Flacco back will be big and he makes this Baltimore offense better. Look for him to be more-focused and have a better year than what he was having before going down last season. A bounce-back season from RB Justin Forsett would be nice. There are weapons in the passing-game, but they could really use a healthy Smith, Sr., who is questionable to play in this game. Getting Mike Wallace was a good move, as having a vertical threat like Flacco throwing to him could revive the speedster's career. They signed still-useful tight end Benjamin Watson. They also have promising Kamar Aiken, FB Kyle Juszczyk, and TE Crockett Gilmore. RB Javorious Allen is a nice versatile weapon, having run for 514 yards, while catching 45 balls in 2015. Up-front, it's time for a high draft pick to pay off, with T Ronnie Stanley in the fold. They lost Eugene Monroe and G Kelechi Osemele so they're going to need to find some answers up-front.
The Baltimore "D" was in better form late last season, as it kept them in games. What stands out most is the 5-11 record. But 9 of those 11 losses were one-score games. They're looking for more youth and quickness on this side of the ball. Look for the pass-rush to benefit from the addition of rookie Bronson Kaufasi, who along with Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, should make some havoc for opposing quarterbacks. The middle is loaded with Za'Darius Smith, Zachary Orr, Arthur Brown, and CJ Mosley moving to the inside. Some issues exist in a secondary that couldn't make much good happen in 2015, picking off just 6 passes, while giving up 30 TD passes. Look for the free agent signing of Eric Weddle to pay off, as Ladarius Webb moves over to help him. At corner, Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith should get help from acquisition Jerraud Powers.
Buffalo could really use a boost from QB Tyrod Taylor in his second full season as a starter. His development is what this team's offense is hinging on. In the offseason, they lost some veteran pieces and were cap-strapped and not able to explore free agency. It also doesn't help that they've been absolutely snake-bitten in the preseason by injuries to their youth movement. The defense was supposed to get a big boost from first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland. Lawson is out until at least October, with Ragland lost for the season. Safety Aaron Williams is dealing with concussion issues, while top defensive player, DT Marcel Dareus has been suspended 4 games for a positive drug test. This is not how you want to begin a campaign that's supposed to be a put-up-or-shut-up kind of year.
Taylor has some history with the Ravens, playing 4 seasons with them and never getting a start. Maybe he will have a little extra axe to grind. Coach Ryan and offensive coordinator Greg Roman got this Buffalo running game out of moth balls, forming the league's top rushing attack with LeSean McCoy leading the way. They released wayward Karlos Williams, who was a big part of that run-game, but still should flourish behind an intact line that could be really good, though T Cordy Glenn is listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain. The aerial attack is a bit dicey with a really good, but vulnerable number-one in Sammy Watkins, along with complimentary pieces like Robert Woods, TE Charles Clay, Marquise Goodwin (out indefinitely), and Kolby Listenbee. Something could develop, however, with Ryan having a good eye for diamond-in-the-rough speedsters.
Ryan wasn't all that adept at getting this defense in order, which was a surprise with that being his bread-and-butter. They were pretty non-impactful in the pass-rush last season, with a 33-sack drop from the previous year's total. And while Ryan tried to get some horses for this "D," injuries have robbed him of valuable manpower before the season even starts. Kyle Williams is nice inside, but will miss Dareus. Jerry Hughes was looking forward to being joined by Lawson, but is still a difference-maker. The middle won't get the expected boost they were expecting from Ragland. They are strong at corner with Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. They need to fill the void left by Wiliams at safety, but FS Corey Graham led the team in tackles and is a handful. This group could be better, especially as guys work themselves back from injury and suspension.
It's unfortunate for Buffalo that they couldn't catch a break in the offseason with the defense really stripped of a lot of its upside. And this was supposed to be the season that Ryan whipped this unit into a serviceable group. It's going to need to be better, with the Buffalo offense lacking in the shootout context. But if Taylor can break out some this season, there are a few shining stars on that offense in the form of McCoy and Watkins, with a decent line that should allow other talent to materialize.
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It's difficult with both teams having a wide range of possible forms. Either team could win anywhere from 4-11 games for all anyone knows this season. It would take a lot of stars to line up right, but with good coaching and some pegs falling into the right slots, either team could produce some positive results this season. Or if things don't come to fruition, they could both be underpowered and out of their element against the better teams.
Both teams have reasons for optimism, but Baltimore opens the season in better position personnel-wise, with more of their pieces intact. Buffalo's defense was poised for an upswing this season, but injuries and suspensions have robbed that side of the ball of its upside, having them looking a lot like last year's group. And against a home Baltimore team in game one, that could be a problem. I'm taking the Ravens,
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Baltimore Ravens minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
