Buffalo Bills (2-2, SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, October 3, 2013 at 8:25PM EST
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: NFL Network
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BUF/CLE
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Bet your Buff/Clev pick at an online sportsbook where you can deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Sportsbook.
In this week’s Thursday Night game, the Buffalo Bills take to the road to face the Cleveland Browns. While hardly an electric matchup that will get the nation’s blood pumping, this game features two teams that are at at the very least promising, and at best, up-and-coming teams to keep an eye on.
Cleveland’s last two weeks have really surprised some people. They traded their starting back Trent Richardson, and lost their starting QB to injury. At 0-2, it was natural to think the Browns were bad and about to get a lot worse. Then, they win their last two games. Go figure. In two weeks, they went from a team that looked to be waving the white flag for 2013 to an interesting team that has shown a lot of heart--not to mention a lot of betting value. There’s not another team in the league where the last two weeks meant as much as it has for Cleveland.
Beating Minnesota and the Bengals is nice, but it goes beyond that. It speaks to the team’s inner resources. It speaks well of new head coach Rob Chudzinski. With the media and fans shoveling dirt on their carcass and the front office appearing to rule out 2013 and banking for the future, it looked dreary for the Browns. Rising up these last few weeks doesn’t make them a contender. What it does is indicate to everyone that the Browns aren’t losers. There is some heart and pride on this squad. QB Brian Hoyer, with one start in 6 years, has come in and with 590 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 games--is outdoing Brandon Weeden.
Cleveland’s bread-and-butter, however, is a tenacious defense that is really stingy in giving up yards. Even better is that they step up in key spots consistently. They are especially tough against the run and at home, should give Buffalo some issues with the ground game. That becomes even more of an issue when seeing that both of the Bills’ 1-2 running punch, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, didn’t practice early in the week and are listed as questionable for this game.
Going L-W-L-W in their four games this season, the Bills are looking a lot better, with 3 of 4 covers against-the-spread. EJ Manuel is a mixed bag so far. He was big in the wins and a main contributor in the defeats. We may have gotten spoiled in watching rookies explode onto the scene lately, but Manuel’s progression isn’t so atypical. He will be on/off depending on a slew of imperceptible factors. While he has been making good use of his receivers, Stevie Johnson and rookie Robert Woods, they rely heavily on the run game. Coming into Cleveland to face a tough defense will require Manuel to take a step forward. But he proved something in a close loss to New England in game one and a dramatic last-second win over Carolina. The loss to the Jets was a setback, but he came right back and did enough to beat the Ravens 23-20.
Both teams are trying to turn that corner--going from AFC bottom-feeders to marginal factors. Each team has unproven talent at the quarterback position. The Bills have bigger threats on offense at the skill positions, but Cleveland’s defense seems appreciably better, though the Bills have some great game-changing guys on “D.” Rookie LB Kiko Alonso already has 4 interceptions and DE Mario Williams is off to a good start. Both quarterbacks enjoy the privilege of working behind stout front lines.
DEPOSIT $100 TO $500 AND GET A MATCHING $100 BONUS (FREE CASH!) AT GTBETS (HOME OF THE FREE HALF POINT FOR YOUR 2 FAVORITE NFL/COLLEGE TEAMS!)
On a short week, you don’t want to see a team like Buffalo all banged-up. Jackson and Spiller is one thing, but even Stevie Johnson is coming off a pulled hamstring. We’ve all heard about injuries before, only to see those supposedly-injured guys go bonkers in the games we bet against them--so we don’t want to just assume their offense will grind to a halt. But even healthy, this isn’t a game where you would picture any of the Bills’ top skill guys having their best games, especially in Cleveland.
The Browns are seeing good signs so far from some young blood on the team. Tight end Jordan Cameron is stepping out and already has 30 catches and 5 touchdowns. Second-year receiver Josh Gordon and newly-acquired WR Davone Bess are being productive. With Richardson gone, they had to dig into the barrel--getting the suddenly un-retired Willis McGahee. In addition, some nice playmakers on defense are developing, with rookie Barkevious Mingo showing a lot of promise.
Taking the points with Cleveland the past two weeks is one thing. Now having to give up 4 points, they are suddenly not as attractive an option. What they have done is nice. It shows a lot of character to bounce back from 0-2 and what appeared to be a downward spiral with two big wins. And it’s not hard to imagine a pumped-up Bills “D” keeping Hoyer and Company in check. Even so, going against Cleveland right now just seems like the bad move, even with that troublesome 4-point spread. This might be a good one for buying points or a money line bet.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Cleveland Browns minus 4 points.
