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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Point Spread - Pick

Buffalo Bills (8-6 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Week 16 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, December 24, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper,

Point Spread: BUF +12/NE -12
Over/Under Total: 47

The Buffalo Bills come to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots in a big AFC East matchup in week 16 action on Sunday. Both teams were successful on Sunday, with the Patriots winning a dramatic game against fellow top conference contender Pittsburgh, 27-24. The win was big in New England's fifth road game in 6 weeks. They now return home for their last two games, as they look to sew up a top-seeding. Buffalo is coming off a 24-16 win over Miami on Sunday. Two straight wins have them at 8-6 and still in the mix of a crowded wild-card race in the AFC. These teams met three weeks ago in Buffalo, with the Pats winning, 23-3. The Bills hope for better this week.

The Bills have had a wild season. All in all, they've had a lot of issues and it says a lot that they are still in it. After three straight home games where they won the last two, they now face consecutive road games to end the season, with Miami on the last week. In other words, it could come down to this game for the Bills. On Sunday, they got a big boost from both sides of the ball and hope for more of that this week. Against New England the first time around, they just couldn't convert production into points. But with a healthier Tyrod Taylor and after LeSean McCoy had a big game against the Pats a few weeks ago, maybe they can make something happen, especially if they catch the Pats sleeping a bit after their big win on Sunday.

On Sunday, Taylor was pretty effective running the Bills' offense, throwing for 224 yards and rushing for 42 yards, while scoring a touchdown both aerially and on the ground. LeSean McCoy didn't have a huge day with 50 yards, but he scored a touchdown on the ground and caught a TD pass, as well. Charles Clay caught 5 balls and had a good day. Either way, they've won three of their last four games, despite scoring only 56 total points in that span. Maybe a healthy Kelvin Benjamin can make his presence known in this offense the next two weeks, as a surge in point-scoring would really go a long way. For all their issues, to be 8-6 is pretty darned good.


Buffalo's defense was solid on Sunday, as they carried a 24-6 lead into the final quarter and held on for the big divisional win. They were clutch on Sunday, especially in the red-zone. The Dolphins had some production, but when the situation became critical, the "D" was able to step up and put a stop to it. The secondary played well, with Shareece Wright, Tre'Davious White, and Jordan Poyer all getting interceptions. In the middle, Preston Brown was big and was seemingly in on almost every play. They have allowed a total of 56 points in their last 4 games. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry against New England a few weeks ago, they still allowed just 23 points to the Pats in that game, well below their season average. They look for even better this week.

For the Patriots, Sunday's win over the Steelers served a few different purposes. It showed their mettle, as they did really well in what was a brutal stretch of games—five road games in 6 weeks. It showed they can beat the best teams in the league, though they already knew that as defending Super Bowl champions. With a clutch interception in the last seconds as the Steelers tried to win it deep in New England territory with time running out, they were able to pull another win out of the hat. It also helped them put a bizarre loss to the Dolphins the previous week behind them. At 11-3, they have clinched another AFC East title and they have an inside track for one of the top two seeds in the conference.

The Patriots' offense was clutch late against the Steelers, scoring a TD with less than minute left in the game with a two-point conversion to take a 3-point lead. Tom Brady threw for nearly 300 yards with a TD and a pick. On the ground, they got a good game from Dion Lewis, as he and Rex Burkhead each ran in TD scores, though Burkhead left the game with a knee injury, which could be bad as he's been a TD machine the past month. Lewis' 8-yard TD run late was the decisive score. They had a huge game from Rob Gronkowski, who returned after a one-game suspension. He was massive with 9 catches for 168 yards. Brandin Cooks caught a TD pass and had 60 yards.

The Patriots' defense looked a lot better than it had the previous week in the strange loss to Miami. Pittsburgh held onto the ball for a long time and had a lot of big plays. But just enough clutch on this side of the ball and the big play late were key to the win. Even when things aren't going great, this unit can count on playmaking at just the right time to turn things in their favor. Big on the day were two former Bills in Duron Harmon and Stephon Gilmore. Harmon's late pick sewed up the win.

Look for the Patriots to be energized with their next two regular season games at home and postseason games occurring at home, as well. They can really dig in their heels at home now after a prolonged road-sequence. With them coming off the big win over Pittsburgh and playing a team they handily beat a few weeks ago, one can make a case for a less-than-peak Patriots team surfacing this week. Still, a lot of money has been lost over the years trying to time a Patriots comedown. Even so, I see a competitive division game at Foxborough this week against a desperate Bills' team playing for their playoff lives. I'll take the Bills and the points.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Buffalo Bills plus 12 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Bills vs. Patriots game from the comfort of home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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