Carolina Panthers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 8, 2016 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: CAR -3/DEN +3
Over/Under Total: 42.5
The Carolina Panthers face the Denver Broncos on Thursday to kick off the NFL season. This is a rematch of last season's Super Bowl 50, which the Broncos won, 24-10. But whereas the Panthers look primed to make another prolonged run into the postseason, the Broncos are facing so many personnel losses that not many people have them listed among their conference favorites. Then again, coach Kubiak was able to come up with the right formula in his first season as Denver head coach and it was defense that really allowed them to thrive. So a lot of pieces are still in place.
On one hand, it's jarring that the two top quarterbacks from the Broncos are gone with Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler off to Houston. Then again, their ability to win the Super Bowl was not all that dependent on the QB position. Sure, it helped to have the steady hand of Manning to commandeer them through the postseason, but they're a team that didn't seem all that dependent on high-flying quarterback play. At the same time, filling the position could be problematic. The starting gig goes to former Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian. And from the mouths of respected voiced in camp, Siemian appeared to be the clear choice. It's just a bit strange for a defending Super Bowl champion to hand the ball off to a 7th-round guy with one kneel-down to his credit.
Siemian will still have some useful tools in the Denver offense with which to use. Running back CJ Anderson is a proven producer in this offense, though health is a lingering issue. Fourth-round rookie back Devontae Booker has played himself up the depth chart in camp and could make an impact. The air is where the real weapons exist with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders—a pair of proven big-stat receivers. Thomas was able to thrive in the Tebow era, so he gets it done regardless of who is under center. Look for tight ends Jeff Heuerman (questionable) and Virgil Green to make a bigger impact on the offense this season. Denver also quietly added some menace up front with the additions of Donald Stephenson and Russell Okung. Second-round pick from 2015, Ty Sambrailo, also returns from injury and the O-line could be much-improved.
Still, there is more optimism on the Carolina offense heading into 2016. Cam Newton is no longer that talented but dicey quarterback who is just as likely to blow a game as he is to win one, as he has morphed into a dependable veteran. He took an offense that was ranked 19th in the NFL in 2014 and made it the league's top-scoring offense last season. RB Jonathan Stewart is back after nearly gaining 1000 yards, with Newton chipping in for almost 636 yards. Statistically, TE Greg Olsen is one of the top guys in the NFL. Ted Ginn, Jr. was useful in the pass game, as was Corey Brown and a blossoming Devin Funchess, who looks to assume a bigger role.
The Panthers return their entire starting line from 2015. They saw continued good play from center Ryan Kalil, the anchor of the line. Trai Turner is a guard who came into his own, while tackle Michael Oher found a second-wind last season. What really gives this offense a new dimension is the return of receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who gained over 1000 yards in his rookie season in 2014, before tearing his ACL before the 2015 season began.
Offense is always important, but both teams relied on defensive play to get to the Big Dance last season and will again need those units to be tip-top. Denver lost a few pieces, namely defensive lineman Malik Jackson and linebacker Danny Trevathan, but everyone else is back, including that deadly pass-rush with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware (questionable). Adam Gotsis should help make the loss of Jackson somewhat smoother. Trevathan's exit hurts the linebacking corps, but Brandon Marshall remains a top player in the middle. There is an embarrassment of riches in the secondary, with the top corner tandem of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, with nickel corner Bradley Roby. Safeties TJ Ward and Darian Stewart are also excellent and should stay in top form in 2016. And when they bring Ward up into the box, they're really hard to run against, as teams found out in '16.
Carolina's defense didn't have to carry the entire load last season with the offense becoming a top unit, but they're still very good. The strength of this group is in the middle, with Luke Kuechly one of the best on "D" in the entire league, with Thomas Davis a tremendous and intimidating presence. And they benefit from a line that really came into its own. Star Loutelelei is a growing defensive tackle and gets a lot of attention, opening things up for Kawann Short, Kony Ealy (questionable), and Charles Johnson. Getting Vernon Butler in the draft and Paul Soliai gives the front even more bite. The secondary likely took a hit with the departure of Josh Norman. They still have Kurt Coleman and Tre Boston at safety, with Bene Benwikere at corner, with a gaggle of players vying for the other corner spot. Truth be told, the front will really have to be at their best to keep the secondary from taking a measured step back this season.
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There is a difference in mentality between the two teams, as opposed to last season. Denver spent a handful of years putting themselves in position to do what they did last season and there is an anticipated fall that is impending. It's just that the supposed falloff is based purely on the quarterback position and we could all be reading that wrong. Carolina, meanwhile, is still chomping at the bit for Super Bowl glory and there's little reason to think they're not suited to make another run. In terms of urgency, Carolina might have the edge this season.
Denver won the one that matters. This is game one of the season and an important game by any measure, but it's still small-potatoes compared to the game Denver won when it all counted. I think the new QB picture at Denver has been overblown to some extent, but I also think Manning's cerebral approach and the fact that he was like a coach on the field is going to be harder to replace than some are forecasting, as well. It wasn't all about arm-strength and stats, it was about commandeering a team to glory. It was about manufacturing wins and having a real vision of the game. That's gone. I think Carolina is at least more prepared to hit the ground running this season and even at Mile High, I see them opening the season with a "W," something they did 15 times last regular season.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Carolina Panthers minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Carolina vs. Denver game from the comfort of your own home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
