Chicago Bears (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: CHI +4.5/HOU -4.5
Over/Under Total: 44
The Chicago Bears come to NRG Stadium on the first Sunday of the NFL season to take on the Houston Texans. It's a time of optimism for both teams, only one of which will gain positive momentum to begin the campaign. Chicago is coming off a 6-10 season where not a lot went right. Houston, meanwhile turned around a 2-5 season and won the AFC South last season. With some upgrades in personnel, they're looking for some better things this season.
The Texans have a new look on offense with quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. Both should be upgrades. Some are dismissive of Osweiler's ability to become a top-tier quarterback in this league, but maybe he doesn't have to be. Houston did pretty well season and that was with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, TJ Yates, and Brandon Weeden splitting up the starts. Their leading rusher was Alfred Blue. So we'll see what kind of results they can get with some better players in there.
Osweiler will be working with a top receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, who caught 111 balls last season. Cecil Shorts remains, but they're looking for a youth movement to deliver aerially with first-round rookie Will Fuller and third-rounder Braxton Miller. And Lamar Miller, with his 4.6 career rushing average, should boost a Houston run-game that averaged a meek 3.7 yards per scamper last season. What could allow this offense to come into its own would be a good and intact O-line, but that's not a luxury Houston has heading into the opener. Both tackles are banged up, with LT Duane Brown doubtful for this game. Rookie Nick Martin was supposed to be a big part of this unit and is also questionable for this game. But even with the line in a little disarray to begin the season, the offense looks better this season. And that should allow a good Houston "D" to stand out even more.
The Texans were third in total defense last year at 310 yards allowed per game. It's an aggressive and difference-making group. Up-front, JJ Watt is one of the best to ever do it and should be good, but he is nursing a back injury that looks to keep him out of action. Vince Wilfork is still a good run-stopper. The middle has abundant talent and if they can get both Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney to stay healthy, it could do wonders. With Benardrick McKinney and Whitney Mercillus (12 sacks in 2015), this group should produce a lot of menace. The secondary features the league's third-ranked pass-defense with Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson at corner, along with safeties Quintin Demps, Eddie Pleasant, and Andre Hal. This is a defense that can do a little bit of everything and they should again play a big role in carrying this team to some wins this season.
Chicago is trying to buck a troubling pattern of consecutive double-digit loss seasons. Look for more success in head coach John Fox's second season. The offense has lost some of its former effervescence under QB Jay Cutler. It wasn't Cutler's fault, as he remained solid and healthy last season. Matt Forte has moved on, though he was slowed by injuries last season. The running duties now fall on the shoulders of Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, and Jordan Howard, an exciting rookie.
The revamped Chicago run-game will need to thrive behind a line that is a little banged-up to start the season. They lost C Hroniss Grasu and Kyle Long is questionable for game one. Free agents Bobbie Massie and Ted Larsen with second-round pick Cody Whitehair should help the situation up-front, as will the return of C Will Montgomery, who comes back from injury. Aerially, help could be on the way. A healthy Alshon Jeffery is a prolific ball-catcher and a legit number-one, something they are depending on this season. First-round pick of 2015 Kevin White can maybe start delivering this season and is a tremendous talent if he can recover. Eddie Royal hasn't been able to stay healthy and is again out indefinitely, with Marquess Wilson questionable for this game.
Chicago's defense needs to keep getting better and that's where John Fox earns his money. They did improve last season measurably with the new 3-4 scheme. The strong suit was certainly not the run-defense, as they gave up 122 yards per game. The front has promise with youngsters Eddie Goldman, Will Sutton, and Ego Ferguson, if he ever hits the field. Adding free agent Akiem Nicks and rookie Johnathan Bullard could have this line in good shape. The additions of Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan boost the middle, with Christian Jones in the mix too on the inside. Throw in first-rounder OLB Leonard Floyd and Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee, this part of the team is loaded and a big part of their overall upward trajectory as a unit.
The Chicago secondary saw big improvement last season and bring in Omar Bolden and rookie Deon Bush to help out safeties Chris Prosnicki and Adrian Amos. Corners Tracy Porter and Kyle Fuller (out) are developing into a nice tandem. They are on their way up, but to make Chicago a threat this season, they're going to need a big upswing. They have the potential to a be a top defense, as coordinator Vic Fangio has engineered some defensive masterpieces over the years.
Chicago needs their offense to not take a step back for them to have a chance this season in putting something decent together. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase, who was helping Cutler thrive, is gone, as is Matt Forte. Young receiving talent hasn't been able to break out of the gates and they really need it to this season. It's one of the least-dependable receiving crews in the league from a health standpoint, with that phase of the team seemingly never at full-power. While their defense could be projected to be pretty good, some things will need to go really good on the other side of the ball. Alshon Jeffery needs to stay healthy. Eddie Royal needs to return and become the great role receiver he can be. The running game needs to find an answer and hope Jordan Howard can surprise some people. The line needs to gel and stay healthy. All of these stars won't line up, of course, but some of them could and it would go a long way toward getting the Bears on the right track, To some extent, it's just not right when the Bears win one game all season at home, as they did in 2015.
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At 4.9 yards per play in 2015, Houston's offense was often stuck in mud and there should be more positive forward motion this season on that side of the ball. And not being a team that is punting constantly might not make fantasy backers of Shane Lechler happy, but it will help a defense keep its legs late in the game. This offense doesn't need to be great. They're sort of a working man's version of their new QB's former squad—a team that wins through defense and game-management. And there really is no reason they shouldn't thrive in that role.
Chicago is an easy team to underrate. No one outside of Chicago seems too interested in discussing them. They were 6-10 last year and lousy the year before that. Seven of their losses were one-score affairs with two overtime losses. A little more offensive firepower and a defense that continues to come around matches up decently with a Houston team that has a lot of new pieces that need to hit the ground running. I'm taking the points.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Chicago Bears plus 4.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
