Dallas Cowboys (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DAL +3/ATL -3
Over/Under Total: 50.5
The Dallas Cowboys come to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in week ten action. This will be the first time Dak Prescott has faced the Falcons and it's a Falcons team that is really in need of a win. Their pattern for blowing leads continued last week in a 20-17 loss to the Panthers, their fourth loss in five games after a 3-0 start. They face a tough test at home this week against the Cowboys, winners of three in a row since coming off the bye. On Sunday, they beat a good Chiefs team, 28-17, and look to keep it moving this week against a Falcons team that looks to be down-trending.
At some point, you just have to throw your hands up with the Ezekiel Elliott ordeal. Repeatedly, we've been told he won't play and it hasn't taken hold yet. Until we don't see him on the field, we'll pick these games as if he's going to play. He was big on Sunday with 92 yards and a touchdown and obviously makes the offense better. Things looked dicey as the Cowboys got off to a 2-3 start this season. Things that worked last season weren't through the first handful of games. But in the last three weeks, we see things starting to gel. The offense is moving smoother, with some better health on the other side of the ball starting to resonate.
With another good showing from Elliott, the Cowboys offense had a leg up, aided by another solid performance from Dak Prescott behind center. He threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns and made few mistakes against the capitalizing Chiefs' defense. Cole Beasley had two touchdowns, Dez Bryant had six catches for 73 yards, while Terrance Williams was big with 141 yards receiving. We're starting to see more-complete performances from the Dallas offense, with the aerial playmakers getting on the same page as Prescott. That's a good sign moving ahead in when they will be without Elliott. Both Bryant and Williams left the game early on Sunday with leg injuries—something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
The Dallas defense isn't great, but with the right pieces in there, they can be quite effective. They've yielded 46 combined points in this three-game winning streak, no doubt aided by a return of a healthy Sean Lee, along with difference-makers David Irving and Anthony Hitchens coming back from injury. Irving had another sack on Sunday, while Lee was in a lot of plays. We see both sides of the ball playing better and starting to more-closely resemble the team of last season, as opposed to the wayward and disorganized group we saw earlier in the season.
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The Falcons have had their ups and downs before, even last season when they won the conference. But this latest funk suggests more of a systemic issue. We've seen them giving up leads multiple times this season with the offense often going dead in the second half of games. Before the end of the first quarter on Sunday, they had scored ten points, not scoring again until the game was almost over in the 4th quarter. It's become a common trend this season. The offense, without last season's coordinator, seems to be without its prior zip. It doesn't help that they've been on the road for the last three weeks. With four of their next five at home, this is a time in the season where the Falcons need to make serious headway.
On Sunday, Matt Ryan went over 300 yards in the air with two touchdowns. But an interception and a lot of drives that just died relegated them to just 17 points on the game. They were only 4-for-12 on third downs and clearly didn't make the most of what they have. The run-game wasn't able to get untracked, as Devonta Freeman has been relatively quiet in recent weeks, as has Tevin Coleman. Through the air, Julio Jones had a big game though he did drop a TD pass in the fourth quarter that would have been critical. Guys like Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper, and Mohamed Sanu chipped in, as well. They look to get more out of this group moving forward. Atlanta doing big things on offense is really their calling-card and without that, they're a pretty average team, as we've seen thus far in 2017.
It almost seems like the Falcons are wasting a good effort from the defense this season. Despite some personnel issues, they have been quite serviceable and with the ATL offense near its peak, their efforts would have been sufficient. In every game, they've given up 17-26 points, usually toward the lower part of that range. A healthy Vic Beasley will certainly help and he had another sack on Sunday. They've been really good on the road for the last three weeks and some good performances with all these home games coming up would really go a long way.
Dallas seems to have re-tapped into some good mojo and they won't be easy to derail right now. Wins over the Niners and Redskins were one thing, but to so easily dominate the Chiefs was impressive. Alas, things get harder this week in a venue none of their players have seen. Dallas is in-conference, but a little out of its element this week. Still, with the advances made in their defense over the last few weeks, they could keep an off-rhythm Atlanta offense in check. I see Atlanta being tough at home this week, facing the same desperation that Dallas felt as their season was getting away from them. At the same time, I see the value being too good to pass up on Dallas this week.
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