Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: DEN +3/CIN -3
Over/Under Total: Off
In key week three AFC action, the Denver Broncos come to Paul Brown Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Denver is defending their Super Bowl title and looks good with Trevor Siemian behind center, sitting at 2-0 with good wins over the Carolina Panthers, which they followed with a 34-20 win over the Colts on Sunday. After two home games to begin their Super Bowl defense, they now head to Cincy to face an irritated Bengals bunch that is smarting from a tough divisional 24-16 road loss to the Steelers on Sunday. That followed a tough one-point win at the Jets the previous week. Still, going 1-1 after two rough road games isn't bad as they now open at home where they look to score a big win over the defending champions.
The Denver defense is still as tough as they come. Von Miller might be on a run of dominance not seen since the halcyon days of LT. With three sacks on Sunday, including a clutch strip-sack that sent Indy's comeback attempt spiraling, he made a huge impact. Shane Ray returned it for a touchdown and that was huge for the Denver win. And not only did the Denver secondary hold Andrew Luck to under 200 yards, which is a rare feat, they also put up points with Aqib Talib returning a pick 46 yards for another critical touchdown. The defense scoring two touchdowns was a huge part of the win. And looking forward, there's no reason to think this side of the ball will wane. It's truly a great defense. One bad development was the injury to DeMarcus Ware, who broke his right forearm and will be out for a while. After two sacks in the opener, that could be a bad loss for a Denver "D" that has done well to overcome the few losses they had in the offseason.
Again, Siemian has been pretty good. He was 22-for-33 passing with 266 yards. He has thrown 3 picks in two games with only one touchdown, but that doesn't capture the story. He has been mature beyond what his experience would suggest, as he smoothly commandeers this offense with a certain level of confidence and a winning spirit. His stats might not bear it out necessarily, but he's been good through two games. On Sunday, CJ Anderson had another good game with 74 yards and a score, while rookie Devontae Booker added a few nice runs, as Denver starts working him into the offense. As Siemian gets more comfortable, look for him to connect more with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The offense also suffered a few injuries, with TE Virgil Green and right tackle Donald Stephenson (out) suffering leg injuries that could put them out of action.
The Bengals had multiple issues offensively after scoring a comeback one-point win over the Jets on the road in week one. After consecutive road games against conference contenders to open the season, it's nice to be home. On Sunday, Andy Dalton had 366 yards, but the team ended up with just 16 points and he couldn't really get the ball downfield despite the big yardage totals. To top it off, Dalton is dealing with a gimpy ankle and might not be fully-mobile—bad timing as he is set to face the Denver "D." On Sunday, AJ Green was kept quiet after a huge week one performance of 180 yards. Dalton was left to peck and poke, with Giovani Bernard catching ten balls. Rookie Tyler Boyd looked good with 6 catches, but coughed up a costly fumble late as the Bengals tried to mount a comeback. Up until 3:25 in the final quarter, the Bengals had managed just 9 points.
The Pittsburgh defense was really good at home on Sunday. They kept Dalton from pushing the ball downfield. And the Bengals offense had gotten a big boost from the run-game last season, but haven't seen it make much of an impact in two games this season, On Sunday, the duo of Bernard and Jeremy Hill were held to 39 yards on just 16 carries. The Bengals were terrible on third down, converting just 4 of 16 attempts. Two turnovers didn't help. They don't have Marvin Jones anymore and if the run-game continues to suffer, this offense will have more issues. A total of 39 points in two games, even with both coming on the road, is not going to cut it.
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The defense kept Cincinnati in the game and allowing a home Steelers bunch to score just 24 isn't an altogether bad performance. They held the Steelers to 3.4 yards per run, while holding Roethlisberger to 19-for-37 passing with two picks. He threw three touchdowns, but that's going to happen. The Cincinnati secondary kept damage relatively low, with Pacman Jones and Dre Kilpatrick each getting a pick. They kept star receiver Antonio Brown quiet with just 39 yards receiving. The defense has played well on the road and should be even better at home for the opener with the crowd behind them.
This is a big test for Trevor Siemian. He has done great, but beating an off-key Carolina team and making it work against a shoddy Indy road defense is a little different than going into Paul Brown Stadium and succeeding against this defense. I see the Bengals playing better this week, though facing the Broncos defense is a bad time to start working through issues. I see both offenses having issues on Sunday in a grinding kind of game where I see Cincy pulling away for the late cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Cincinnati Bengals minus 3 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Denver vs. Cincinnati game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
