Denver Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 4:25PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DEN -7.5/DAL +7.5
Over/Under Total: 58
The Denver Broncos make the trip to Arlington to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The Broncos are on a roll--one of the best-looking teams to come down the pike in at least several years, averaging almost 45 points a game so far. Meanwhile, Dallas continues to show signs of promise without ever really being able to break out of the mold of mediocrity.
The problem in betting against Denver at this point is that they are so darned explosive. There are going to be some juicy point-spreads like this one. Then they eat that up before the first quarter is even finished. You leave the room for a minute with them on their own 20 and return and they’re on the opponent’s 10-yard line. Peyton Manning is expertly leading a well-oiled machine and looks better than ever.
It goes against a lot of things we know about betting on football. Usually, the teams that receive monstrous hype are not a good-value bet. But Denver is in the unique position of being recognized as perhaps the best team in the NFL, while also being underrated to some degree. There just seems to be a stubbornness on the part of oddsmakers and bettors to acknowledge what is taking place. This might be the most potent offense since the Greatest Show on Turf. And a lot of teams will simply be unable to hang with Denver. In 3 out of 4 games, they haven’t simply beaten the spread, they scorched it.
Dallas, on the other hand, is a truly frustrating team. They have covered 3 out of 4 spreads, with their only loss coming on Sunday to the Chargers. But as has been their wont in recent years, they are wholly inconsistent and unreliable. A lot of the time, they are decidedly un-clutch. They have results that are beneath what their talent would suggest. On paper, there are playmakers on both sides of the ball. There is an abundance of team talent. What there isn’t is a cohesive and consistent team unit. Tony Romo has talent, as does RB DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant. They have a good set of talent on defense, but they are just stuck.
Dallas is one of those teams that can play really well one week, before collapsing the next week. That probably describes a lot of NFL teams, but with Dallas , the range of play is perhaps a bit wider. They looked great two weeks ago smoking St. Louis. Then last week, they blew a 21-10 lead, allowing the Chargers to put up 21 unanswered points en route to an easy win. They’re a team where the bottom can fall out at any moment--not a good trait when facing a team like Denver.
Manning has really been incredible--with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. New addition Wes Welker already has 6 touchdowns. Surprising TE Julius Thomas has 4. Eric Decker has been big with 340 yards. And Demaryius Thomas (29-393-3) is turning into one of the league’s very top receivers. And now we see their running game beginning to spring to life a bit and it is truly awesome to behold. Add to that an explosive return game, led by speedster Trindon Holliday and it’s a lot of different weapons for opposing teams to contain.
The Denver defense has been iffy in certain spots, with passing yards allowed inflated by teams playing from behind constantly. But their offense may just be their best defense. Have the losses of Von Miller, Champ Bailey, or Elvis Dumervil even resonated? Opposing teams get caught up in the Broncos whirlwind and are completely thrown off their axis. Giving up 20-30 points isn’t so bad when you’re consistently putting up 40-50.
If looking for Denver to have a bad game, a cross-conference road game might not be such a bad spot. They’re a little out of their element, making their first appearance in this venue. But they don’t seem out-of-place, necessarily, and should take to it like a duck to water. There are some matchup concerns, however. In many ways, they are facing one of the most well-rounded teams they have faced thus far--on paper at least. It’s just that Dallas doesn’t always play according to what it says on paper.
Dez Bryant against Rodgers-Cromartie is a matchup Dallas can exploit. Then again, Denver should be able to pick on a Dallas secondary that has been pretty awful in spots this season. The defensive front seven for Dallas could really test this Denver O-line, which has seen some losses, including LT Ryan Clady. Can replacement Chris Clark handle DeMarcus Ware? Despite some concerns, it’s hard to bet against Denver at this point.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Denver Broncos minus 7.5 points.
