Denver Broncos (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Week 9 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DEN -3/NE +3
Over/Under Total: 55
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In a monstrous AFC matchup, the Denver Broncos come into Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. The winner of this game can begin laying claim to AFC supremacy. Other than an overtime loss at Seattle, the Broncos have been stellar at 6-1. They will be well-rested coming off a 35-21 Thursday win over the Chargers. The 6-2 Patriots have been in fine form with 4 straight wins, including a 51-23 pounding of the Bears on Sunday.
From early signs, this is a preview of the AFC title game, which in the past 3 seasons, has featured at least one of these teams. The Broncos beat the Patriots in last year’s conference title game, but in their regular season game, it’s difficult to forget the massive comeback the Patriots made in beating the Broncos in overtime. This should be a good one.
It was looking pretty rotten there for a while with the Patriots. It doesn’t seem like that long ago when New England was floundering at Kansas City on MNF, their offensive line in total disarray en route to a 41-14 loss. Brady looked rattled, like he knew the gravy train had reached its final stop. If you had told someone following that game that New England would be 6-2 and looking like a really good team again in just one month, you would have received a strange look.
Denver started the season in subdued fashion, with 7-point wins over Indy and the Chiefs. Then they lost to Super Bowl nemesis Seattle in overtime. Since then, they’ve won 4 straight--by a combined 149-75 score and all of them being covers. Among those teams are Arizona, San Francisco, and San Diego--so it’s not like they’ve been beating up on bad teams. It might not be much of a leap to call this the best team in the NFL as of this moment.
The Patriots have shown they can hang with this Denver team, even when the Broncos are in a state of full-bloom. At home and after charging back from adversity this season, look for an impassioned home crowd on Sunday. After some murmurings of Tom Brady losing his touch, he has produced some great performances lately, including a 30-for-35 showing on Sunday, with 354 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Notre Dame rookie Jonas Gray came up with 86 yards on the ground, giving them an interesting possibility in the ground-game. Brady has also been establishing more of a connection with the passing game. TE Rob Gronkowski is starting to look like his old self after 149 yards and 3 touchdowns on Sunday. A healthy Gronkowski does wonders for this offense. Brandon LaFell is morphing into a very dependable option. And with the offense sustaining drives consistently, the defense is able to play within itself and stay fresh.
But the best offense on the field will be Denver, with Peyton Manning continuing to be a touchdown-making machine, with a full cast of weapons in an offense that is truly unstoppable. With 283 yards in the last 3 games, former Aztecs star Ronnie Hillman is starting to give the Broncos the ground-game they need to give even more teeth to the aerial game. Demaryius Thomas is as good as it gets as far as wide receivers, WR Emmanuel Sanders is having a breakout season, TE Julius Thomas is a threat to explode at any time, and Wes Welker is starting to re-incorporate himself back into the offense. It’s a lot of different weapons to contain, all behind a awesome offensive line.
New England really has their heels dug in now, with this being their third straight game at home, with a bye week to follow. For Denver, this is their first of 3 straight road games. Denver should be eager to get a win that would really put a lot of wind in their sails. They still have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Beating a hot Pats team on the road would be a big boost. But the Pats will be putting all their eggs in this basket in an effort to go into the break with the ship fully righted. A win over Denver would be a cherry on top of one of the quickest midseason turnarounds in recent memory.
It’s a difficult game to predict. Stylistically, the Patriots tend to fare well with the Broncos, even when the Broncos appear to have an on-paper edge. It’s been really hard to run the ball against Denver lately. New England may have some innovative trick up their sleeve, but it’s hard to picture them having a ton of success on the ground. But Denver can be gotten to aerially and that’s an area where New England has been improving in recent weeks. And New England is pretty stingy against the pass. At the same time, they haven’t seen a pass-attack like this yet this season. Despite recent improvements on the Pats’ O-line, the discrepancy in ability between these two teams on both lines of scrimmage is more pronounced this season than in recent campaigns. I’m going with the Broncos.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 3 points. Bet this game and ALL of your college/pro wagers at -105 reduced odds every week at the web's best bookmaker: 5Dimes!
