Detroit Lions (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DET +4/IND -4
Over/Under Total: 51
The Detroit Lions come to Lucas Oil Stadium on the first Sunday of the NFL season to face the Indianapolis Colts. This is a put-up-or-shut-up year for both teams. The Colts ended a run of three straight 11-5 seasons with an 8-8 record in 2015. Injuries played a key role in that, as Indy looks to right the ship this season and compete in a wide-open AFC. Detroit was a lukewarm 7-9, a record that looks a lot better when you consider their 1-7 start and 6-2 finish that likely saved head coach Jim Caldwell's job. They look to take some of that momentum into 2016. It starts with a tough cross-conference road game against a team that looks to hit the ground running.
For the Colts, not having Andrew Luck for 9 games was too much to overcome. Luck is one of the brightest stars at the quarterback position in the entire league and if he remains healthy, he should get the Colts offense back on the right track. His ground-game never seems to be particularly good. Frank Gore is aging, but should have enough gas in the tank for another good season. Call it a feeling, but I don't think Gore will be as bad as some expect. He gets a little help with Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman coming in to help. If the line comes to life, it could pay off in the run, with Anthony Costanzo and Jake Mewhort (out a few weeks) holding it down on the left side. Alabama rookie Ryan Kelly is at center and if the first-rounder delivers, it could make this line more of a team asset. They also added depth and should do a better overall job of keeping Luck intact, while helping spring a run game that produces more than the 3.6 yards per run it did in 2015.
The key part of this Colts' offense is the aerial attack. TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief are a top-notch combo punch and will see their numbers swell with Luck healthy behind center all season. TE Dwayne Allen can be highly productive if put in the right spots. First-round pick from 2015 Phillip Dorsett was not great in his rookie season, but injuries also played a role. Maybe another playmaker can surface. Even though some of these faces on the Colts offense are familiar ones, they're still a pretty young group that could see some improvement.
The Colts' defense hasn't been a formidable group in quite some time. In 2015, having a dilapidated offense and a litany of injuries assured this unit was not going to ascend. The injury bug hit the line the hardest, but forged a few decent pieces with Kendall Langford and rookie David Parry having nice seasons. A healthy Arthur Jones would really help, but a 4-game suspension has him out of action. At linebacker, Trent Cole and Robert Mathis are getting old, but still should be able to produce, with the inside well-stocked with D'Qwell Jackson and Eric Walden. The secondary needs to replace the good corner play of Vontae Davis, who will be out until October, with the other corner slot going to Patrick Robinson or D'Joun Smith. Mike Adams is at strong safety, with Clemson rookie TJ Green looking to get the gig opposite him.
The Indy defense can sometimes play with a wide range of form. At times, they are stingy and able to come up with key plays. Other times, they are run over in the pass and run, while showing almost no capacity for clutch play. And in the last several seasons, there have been no reliable signs to indicate which defense will show up at game-time. They have a good combo of vets and youngsters and could be headed in the right direction. There will be times, however, where that's not the case and they look pretty shabby. And to already have a bunch of guys not available for week one doesn't help matters, either.
Again, Detroit ended the season going 6-2 and should be treated with kid gloves by those assuming they will stink this season. It's not impossible that they won't, with Calvin Johnson now retired and a running game that can never seem to get out of the blocks, and a mid-pack defense. The run-game looks for a boost from Ameer Abdullah, who showed promise at times in 2015. It was hard to run behind this line—that much is for sure. Abdullah will need to hang onto the ball better and we'll see how it goes. This line has to deliver—plain and simple. There are three first-round picks in there now with the drafting of Ohio State tackle Taylor Decker, who joins Riley Reiff as the bookends, with 2nd-year Laken Tomlinson and Larry Warford inside with center Travis Swanson. Guard Geoff Schwartz from the Giants was also brought in. They should be better.
It's going to be hard for the Detroit aerial attack to be the same with the retirement of one of the best to ever do it. And Johnson left on top, leaving a lot of production on the table. Maybe the flip-side is that they can diversify their approach a little more. Matthew Stafford has the arm and a ton of targets, including productive Golden Tate. RB Theo Reddick caught 80 balls out of the backfield and is a terrific dump-off option. This is a do-or-die season for talented TE Eric Ebron, who has been uneven in his first two campaigns. The Lions made a key signing in free agency, bringing in Marvin Jones who had 816 yards for Cincinnati last season. Also added were Jeremy Kerley and Andre Caldwell.
The inside of the Detroit D-line has lost some bite over the last few seasons, but could see some better results this season with Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker and rookie A'Shawn Robinson. One end is manned by the growing talent of Ziggy Ansah, who registered 15 sacks and is getting better and better. The return of LB DeAndre Levy will help the middle. They could use some better production at the safety position with Glover Quin and Tavon Wilson, with newly-acquired Rafael Bush. Darius Slay occupies one corner with a battle ensuing for the other spot.
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On one hand, the Lions were strong to end the season, but appear to have lost massive firepower on offense with the departure of Megatron. Marvin Jones is a talented receiver most teams would like to have, but hardly a suitable replacement. Add a run-game stuck in neutral and it's hard to project an offensive explosion this season. Detroit is one of those teams where it would be hard to be shocked if they finished 5-11 or 11-5. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what we have on our hands with this Lions' team.
Indianapolis faces some of the same issues as Detroit with a pass-heavy offensive approach and a defense where any number of possibilities is plausible. But with Luck in there chomping at the bit after missing games for the first time in his pro or college career, the Colts seem like a more-bankable proposition and I think they'll be good form to start the season. I'm going with the home team.
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