Early Super Bowl LI (51) Line
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
As of press time, to even be thinking of Super Bowl 51 odds seems like a stretch. But in all aspects of sports betting, there is always opportunity in areas where few venture. And the early line on the Super Bowl as to which conference will win is certainly one of those areas. Most are still trying to get a sense of all the teams, with a lot still up in the air. Let's take a look at the early Super Bowl line:
AFC Pick (-120)
NFC Pick Even Money (+100)
As you can see, we are not betting on teams necessarily, but just on which conference will have a Super Bowl winning team this season. The AFC is favored at -120, meaning you must bet $120 for every $100 you want to bet. The NFC is a slight underdog at even-money, meaning you would win the exact number you bet if an NFC team wins the Bowl.
Benefits: This bet gives you a stake that lasts all season, even though the bet is not decided until the final game of the year, all the way in February. But you can root all season for your conference, as the balance of power can shift dramatically throughout the season for any number of reasons. If you bet on the AFC, for example, it wouldn't hurt you to see some of the top teams in the NFC fail to deliver or suffer injuries or suspensions that could render a team a diminished force.
This could work one of two ways, but let's say you make this bet and the team from your conference that made it to the Super Bowl is a big favorite. But you have that team at either even-money or -120. That team might be -300 on the money line and you're sitting pretty at even-money. It doesn't get any better than that.
These types of bets allow you to capitalize on any insight you may have developed in the offseason. There may be teams you have pinpointed as being better than what most people think. And maybe the majority of those teams are in one conference, making that conference perhaps stronger than what is being perceived. You'd probably want to bet on those teams individually, but a conference bet would be an acceptable hedge.
Negatives: When betting on a conference, you're at the mercy of a lot of things that are either out of your control or beyond your ability to predict. You're hoping teams from the other conference don't produce a clear favorite over the course of a season. These types of bets are always a bit in the dark, as injuries, poor form, suspensions, or any number of different things can throw a wrench into your analysis.
There will also be some bettors who don't like having their money tied up for lengthy periods of time. When you make this bet, you will be waiting until February for things to get settled. But as we always say, getting good value is worth the wait. It's just a little frustrating if you happen to go broke during the regular season with money tied up in a bet that won't be settled for months. Let's take a look at the landscape of each conference:
Contenders in the AFC: The AFC has produced 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl champions. Last year's representative Denver Broncos won the Bowl last season, but enter 2016 in what is expected to be a diminished force. Those still liking the favored AFC still have a lot to like. Let's take a look at the top contenders, while still keeping in mind that any team could jump up and have a special season. There have been enough bolts from beyond in the past to warrant not summarily ruling out some teams. Here is a short list of the top dogs:
New England Patriots: A suspension looms over Tom Brady, but after a good offseason, the Pats will still need to be contended with.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers just might have the best offense in football. They will need some injury-prone guys to stay healthy, but a good season could be in the cards.
Denver Broncos: Manning is gone. Osweiler is gone. And a lot of key pieces of personnel have also departed. They will have to rely on a great defense and we'll see how things panned out.
Indianapolis Colts: After a down 2015 where Andrew Luck was out of action for most of the season, the Colts look to resume their upward trajectory.
Kansas City Chiefs: In somewhat quiet fashion, the Chiefs have become perennial contenders in the AFC. They get Jamaal Charles back from injury and could make some noise in '16.
Contenders in the NFC: The NFC has only one won Super Bowl in the last 4 years, when Seattle notched championship honors. But in the last 9 seasons, they've taken down 5 Super Bowls. Last season's representative Carolina stands out as a legitimate conference threat, as do former Bowl champions the Seattle Seahawks. There are a handful of legitimate contenders, in addition to some dark-horse candidates. Let's take a look at the top dogs in the NFC.
Seattle Seahawks: Those picking this season for the Seahawks to recede to the rest of the pack might be disappointed. With some newfound offensive success at the end of the season, this could be a good year for the Hawks.
Carolina Panthers: A 15-1 season and run in the playoffs came to a disheartening end in the Super Bowl. Look for the Panthers to be trying to make amends this season.
Green Bay Packers: The Packers get Jordy Nelson back into the fold and still have a lot of firepower. This could be the year for a big season from the Packers.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals look to have latched onto something good, making it to the NFC title game last season. We'll see if they can be solid contenders again this season.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikes are one of these teams where it's not all that easy to identify why they are now winning, but they are and look for their formula to continue being effective in 2016.
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Lootmeister's Pick: With the Patriots and Steelers, the AFC looks to have a couple really good teams in their conference. The Broncos, Colts, and Chiefs are also legit, with some nice dark-horse teams behind them. But with the Broncos taking a step back and several AFC teams being very dependent on injury-prone quarterbacks, they seem more vulnerable than the top teams in the NFC. With the NFC, you get the Seahawks, Panthers, Packers, Cardinals, Vikings, and a small group of teams that could surprise. With the AFC favored, the NFC seems to offer good value this season. We'll go with the NFC.
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