Green Bay Packers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 22, 2013 at 1PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: GB -1/CIN +1
Over/Under Total: 48
On Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Green Bay Packers in a critical game for both teams. Each squad is 1-1, with big hopes for this season making this an important game, despite it being a cross-conference matchup of teams that haven’t faced each other since 2009. Both teams won last week, with the Bengals winning a MNF matchup with the Steelers, 20-10. The Packers were really impressive on Sunday, beating the Redskins 38-20 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicated.
Green Bay lost to the 49ers in Frisco in week one, which is something that is hard to count too hard against them, especially since they gave the Niners a really good game. Against the Redskins, they looked really good. Even by today’s loopy standards, Aaron Rodgers’ 480 yards is awfully-impressive. After just two games, Rodgers is already connecting well with pass-catching threats Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley.
Even more promising was how the offensive line and running game was working for Green Bay this last Sunday. That seems like a strange thing to say after Rodgers took 4 more sacks, as he continues to be the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL in the last several years. But other than that, the protection wasn’t so bad, as a reshuffled line looks to be slowly getting its bearings. An item of great promise was that Green Bay had its first 100-yard rusher in a long time, with James Starks going for 132 yards on 20 carries. What was disappointing was when rookie Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion when the Skins’ Brandon Meriweather laid a big hit on him. But when Starks laid into Meriweather later in the game, it was the safety who had to leave the game with a concussion.
The Packers will have it tougher this week at Cincinnati facing a good Bengals team. In week one, Cincinnati seemed to almost give the game away to the Bears, not to detract from Chicago’s strong late effort in that game. They looked better at home against the Steelers on Monday, but they defeated a team whose offense seems stuck in park. This a whole different ball game facing the Pack and their explosive offense.
The Packers probably won’t have the same success against the better Bengals’ defense, especially in the run category. That doesn’t mean their performance against the Redskins wasn’t impressive, albeit coming against one of the worst run defenses in the NFC. If the Packers’ offense can get a better sense of balance, they could be in store for a big year in 2013. It’s just that the Bengals up front on “D” is not the unit you want to see when trying to elevate your run game. Cincinnati is tough in that area and held Chicago and Pittsburgh to very little on the ground.
After watching the Bengals unravel against Chicago late, in the midst of Jay Cutler’s pass-attack, it’s fair to wonder aloud how they will contain Rodgers and what may be the best aerial attack in the NFL. Cincinnati’s defensive strength is not necessarily their secondary. But with Green Bay’s offensive line, which is still not the greatest in the area of protection, the Bengals could make up for it with a hefty dose of pass rush--something they are quite adept at providing. The opposite also applies, with the Bengals’ offensive line not always the best in pass protection.
Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton is a good quarterback--a growing talent in the league who is getting better. It’s just that in this game, his normal prudent approach might not work. With Dalton, they keep him on a leash and rely on the defense to get it done in the end. Dalton probably has the best receiver on the field with AJ Green, with a great tight end tandem in rookie Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham. And they have rising talents like rookie RB Gio Bernard, who had a coming-out party of sorts against Pittsburgh, and second year WR Mohamed Sanu. It’s just that as of right now, it’s an offense that relies more on not making mistakes than being particularly explosive. On Sunday, if their defense can’t keep a lid on the Packers’ offense, Andy Dalton might have to step out of character to keep pace.
One shouldn’t expect this Green Bay offense to just pick up where they left off on Sunday and lay a beating on the Bengals’ defense. They’re going to receive a little more resistance. And maybe a Bengals’ offense that hasn’t quite hit its stride yet will blossom more in this game. Still, it’s going to be hard to keep a lid on a Packers’ offense that seems to be in midseason form.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Green Bay Packers minus one point.
