Green Bay Packers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: GB +4.5/JAC -4.5
Over/Under Total: 47
The Green Bay Packers come down south to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in week one action on opening NFL Sunday. The Packers remain one of the top contenders in the NFC following a 10-win campaign. Their last two seasons ended with gut-wrenching overtime postseason losses, but with key pieces returning and a blossoming defense, the Packers approach '16 with high optimism. While the starting points are different, hopes are also high in Jacksonville, where they look to parlay a high-flying aerial offense with growing potential on both sides of the ball into something substantive this season.
Green Bay's offense didn't click in its normal fashion in 2015. Eddie Lacy's form slipped badly from his first two seasons. His offseason conditioning has been the source of a lot of attention and in a contract year, Lacy should be back on-point. A lot of teams would like to have quarterbacks throw 31 touchdowns with only 8 picks and have it considered an off-year, but Aaron Rodgers was in fact off-key with the absence of Jordy Nelson and a less-dependable Lacy. In addition, receivers with an enhanced role weren't able to grab the bull by the horns. Randall Cobb is a powerful number-two receiver, but lacked the magic touch as the numero-uno last season. Davante Adams didn't thrive as a starter and can maybe shine more in a spot role. Upcoming talent Jeff Janis (out), Ty Montgomery, and Jared Abbrederis should chip in nicely. Jared Cook at tight end was an underrated acquisition. The line is seldom intact, but the starting five David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Bryan Bulaga, TJ Lang, and Corey Lindsey, when he gets back in October, could make for a tremendous front.
Jacksonville is looking for some of that same offensive upswing, but in a bigger way. It really hasn't taken hold yet, though the signs of promise are certainly in place. But last season, they saw a young quarterback in Blake Bortles throw for nearly 4500 yards. They have blossoming receiver talent with Allen Robinson (1400 yards) and Allen Hurns (1031 yards). They have a good tight end in Julius Thomas and a promising back in TJ Yeldon. And it accounted for a mere 17 points a game, while ranking in the bottom-half of most offensive categories.
Here's where the Jacksonville offense can get better. They could get a full year from Yeldon and have Denard Robinson chip in to make this offense less one-dimensional. The addition of Chris Ivory could put the run-game over the top. Bortles will continue to make good use of his receiving crew, but led the league in fumbles and interceptions, in addition to being sacked 51 times. A more-efficient Bortles and better protection up-front could get this offense on the right track. Issues on the offensive line were addressed with the additions of LT Kelvin Beachum and Mackenzy Bernadeau.
It will be interesting to see how an upgraded defense on paper congeals for the Jags. There are a lot of new faces and it could take some time to get clicking. And it's not like all their high draft picks have worked out over the years—on either side of the ball, for that matter. They're hoping for better luck with this year's crop, which includes 5th overall choice CB Jalen Ramsey and LB Myles Jack. The third pick of the '15 draft, DE Dante Fowler, could start delivering this season after missing all of last year. Add Malik Jackson from the Broncos and the line is starting to take shape, with Jared Odrick, Sen'Derrick Marks, and Roy Miller handling the run-stop. The middle will feature Jack, productive Paul Posluszny and Telvin Smith. The secondary also features a new look with Ramsey, along with Jalen House at corner, with new additions CB Prince Amakamura and S Tashaun Gipson.
The Packers' defense looks to continue their progress from last season. Up-front, BJ Raji will be missed, as his impact was subtle but meaningful. First-round pick Kenny Clark is supposed to fill the void, with Mike Daniels providing good play at one of the ends. Clay Matthews will pop it outside to give him more pass-rushing opportunities, with still-useful Julius Pepper opposite Matthews. The secondary is good with Sam Shields and Damarious Randall at the corners. Micah Hyde and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who is really rounding into a fine safety, should keep this unit a team asset.
A lot is expected of both teams, but can the Jaguars deliver? On paper, it looks good. But a lot of the hopes are wrapped up in projections. Bortles will mature, the receiving crew will continue to flourish, Julius Thomas and TJ Yeldon will come around, new pieces on the O-line will resonate well, high draft picks will reach their potential, guys returning from injury will provide a boost, and key free agent signings will manifest. Chances are that not all those things will happen. When you go five seasons without surpassing 5 wins, it's because things that were supposed to get better generally did not. Some things might fall into place for the Jags, but one can't assume that most of them will.
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Green Bay still faces a tricky road opener in week one. When looking at Packers highlights, you don't see a lot of them taking place on the road in the glaring Florida sun. Green Bay has been working in heat, but it will kick up a notch in Jacksonville and they're out of conference against a team with which they have no real connection. Still, it's the first game of the season and a certain level of urgency should usurp that.
It's not an easy pick. Green Bay is more of the easy-to-assess team here, being that we really don't know what will manifest with the 2016 Jaguars. I think we will see an enhanced Jags team on both sides of the ball, with the offense taking the early lead, as the defense takes time to acclimate with all the new faces. And a defense trying to find its footing could be easy pickings for Aaron Rodgers and Company. I'm taking the Packers.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 4.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
