Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: HOU +7/SF -7
Over/Under Total: 41.5
On Sunday, the Houston Texans come to the west coast to face the San Francisco 49ers. Neither team has really lived up to expectations. The Niners climbed off the mat last Thursday to score an emphatic win in St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Texans, playing at home and needing a win, coughed up what seemed to be a sure victory against the Seattle Seahawks.
Watching Houston on Sunday showed some of their good virtues, but mostly their bad points. Matt Schaub, while a talented guy, isn’t really taking any steps forward to become a premier NFL field general. The pick-six he threw against Seattle late on Sunday is the sort of inexcusable miscue that isn’t committed by really good NFL quarterbacks. You have the lead, so why are you making such a dicey pass deep in your own territory with a win within reach? In 4 games, he has thrown 6 picks. He has a great ball-catching corps that makes him look good, with Andre Johnson, TE Owen Daniels, and rookie DeAndre Hopkins offering great variety in the pass attack. Arian Foster, while off to a slow start, is one of the best in the league.
The NFL is fickle. It’s not about stats, which Schaub has. It’s about being dependable when it most matters and sometimes, Schaub leaves something to be desired in that area. We see in the Seattle game he threw for 355 yards. Great. He also couldn’t manage a single point in the second half or overtime at home and helped the other team win. Sure, there are moments where he looks good as he clicks with his many various tools. He’s just not the steady presence at quarterback that you want to see--as a fan or as a betting man.
San Francisco looked to be circling the drain prior to Thursday’s big win in St. Louis. The Rams certainly did not play well and that helped. But that had a lot to do with the 49ers’ play, which was good on both sides of the ball. After getting hammered at Seattle and then at home against the Colts, the 49ers were facing a crisis situation. Injuries were piling up, a star on defense had to check into rehab, and their supposed young superstar quarterback was struck with an acute case of the sophomore blues (despite technically being in his third season). So the win against the Rams was big. Kaepernick was an efficient 15-23 with 2 touchdown passes. Frank Gore came alive with 153 big yards. Boldin got back on the right track with a nice game. And the Frisco defense returned to the business of controlling the line of scrimmage, with the Rams unable to establish any foothold during the game.
Still, the injuries are beginning to mount for the 49ers and they are facing what figures to be and irritated Texans team. Losing WR Michael Crabtree before the season hurt, but they are deep in the receiving corps. Patrick Willis is questionable after missing the Rams game. LT Joe Staley was being helped off the field late in the Rams game, though he is surprisingly listed as probable for Sunday. For Houston, LB Brian Cushing, who has come back strong from an injury last year, is questionable after suffering a concussion against the Seahawks.
Sunday just illustrated what is irritating about the Texans and their entire approach. When you have money on a team, the last thing you want to see is a “Let’s hope the ceiling doesn’t collapse” approach when a team has a lead. Head coach Gary Kubiak is to blame for some of this. While on one hand, the Texans becoming a playoff team has occurred on his watch, he doesn’t get the most out of this team a lot of the time. That approach cost him and his team on Sunday.
While anticipating the Niners will continue on the right track after a momentum-starting win against St. Louis, one can’t be so sure. This just doesn’t seem like the same 49ers team, does it? At least not from a consistency point-of-view. While some uncontrollable variables within their personnel are responsible for that, the first quarter of 2013 has seen them take a small step backwards coming off a Super Bowl appearance in 2012. Kaepernick seems to be struggling to find what came to him so naturally last season. And after a blessed year in the injury department last season, they have been snake-bitten since spring camp in that department.
The spread of 7 seems a bit flattering to Frisco, as if they are just the same old 49ers from last season. Beating the Rams was nice, but they did beat up on a team that was grossly underperforming and it gets a little tougher this week, even though they are at home.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Houston Texans plus 7 points.
