Indianapolis Colts (13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS)
AFC Conference Championship
Date/Time: Sunday, January 18, 2015 at 6:40PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: IND +7.5/NE -7.5
Over/Under Total: 53.5
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On Sunday the Indianapolis Colts come to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots in the AFC Conference Championship. The Colts have won two playoff games to get to this spot, a dominant 26-10 win over the Bengals, followed by a huge 24-13 road win over the defending conference champion Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Patriots, meanwhile, overcame a stiff challenge from the Ravens on Saturday, winning 35-31, and setting up another potential trip to the big game for New England.
The game features a perennial conference juggernaut in the ever-present Patriots, pitted against the upstart Colts, their first deep run in the post-Manning era led by burgeoning superstar quarterback Andrew Luck. While the Patriots, with Brady and Belichick, are the more proven postseason commodities, Luck really made a statement against Denver on Sunday.
It’s only fair to acknowledge the Patriots’ relatively easy home win against the Colts on November 16. The Pats won, 42-20, pulling away in the 4th with a pair of late touchdowns to ice it. The Patriots had two turnovers and gave up over 300 to Luck through the air and still won with room to spare. The Colts aren’t very good at running the ball, but struggled even more than usual against the Patriots. You never want to depend on past performances, especially with the circumstances for this game being so different, but it’s fair to take this result under serious consideration heading into Sunday.
Winning at Foxborough isn’t easy. In addition to beating the Colts by 22 in their game this season, New England has beaten Cincinnati by 25, Denver by 22, Detroit by 25, and Miami by 28--all at home. And they look to do it again to the Colts on Sunday. But this might be a slightly different version of the Coltts than what they saw the first time around.
Luck really seemed to graduate to another level with the win over Denver, headed by the old master Peyton Manning. The steely nerves and supreme skill of Luck was able to shine through in living color. With the entire Indy offense running through Luck, he is forced to do most of the heavy lifting for the Colts. His clutch play had a lot to do with the Colts getting to this game.
When looking at the Colts, they’re not a team you would associate with being on the fringe of going to the Super Bowl. Other than Luck, they have a top receiver in TY Hilton, an old veteran warhorse in Reggie Wayne, and basically a bunch of other guys. Even on defense, especially without Robert Mathis, there isn’t a ton of star-power on that group. It really brings it into perspective how important Luck has been to this team. It also illuminates the quality of the coaching staff of the Colts. Belichick is the more recognized entity, but coach Pagano took over a franchise that was in the dumps and has immediately revived them and now taken them to the verge of the promised land.
When looking at the Colts’ defensive rankings this season, there is something to be desired, but they have played well as a team almost all season. After all, they did hold a Denver home offense to just 13 points on Sunday. Before that, they kept the Bengals in check. Other than a few exceptions, this “D” has been more than serviceable, allowing the responsibility to fall on the offense’s shoulders.
The Patriots certainly didn’t have it easy on Saturday against the Ravens. They had a big assist from Julian Edelman and his big TD trick play to Danny Amedola late. But things could have easily not gone their way against a very tough visiting team. This week, they should have their hands full with the determined Colts. With Tom Brady and coach Belichick, they know what it’s like to be in this high-pressure spot and how to come through smelling like roses in these types of games.
The Colts already took a significant step forward this season, winning pair of playoff games and getting to the conference championship. But is this too much of a quantum leap? New England and Denver were the clear favorites of this conference heading into the postseason. Asking the Colts to beat both of those teams is successive weeks on the road could be a case of asking for too much. And on Sunday, the Colts capitalized on an off-key Denver team and an injured Peyton Manning. Against the Pats, they are facing a team with no such issues.
The Colts might still be getting overlooked. The Patriots are such the longtime stalwart, while people may be thinking the Colts got lucky to catch the Denver Broncos at less-than-peak form. I think the Colts will be in a very tough spot, maybe too tough, but that they can stay within distance and give the Patriots a good run for their money.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts plus 7.5 points. Bet this game and ALL of your sports bets at -105 odds (instead of the spendy -110 that your bookie is charging you!) at the web's best bookmaker: 5Dimes.
