Indianapolis Colts (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Monday, October 14, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: IND -1.5/SD +1.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
On Monday Night Football, the Indianapolis Colts come into Qualcomm Stadium to face the San Diego Chargers. The Colts are looking good at 4-1, while the Chargers are even more erratic and unpredictable than normal at 2-3. Monday should feature a spirited contest that could give way to a variety of different results.
Fans of the Chargers have been long able to attest to the frustration associated with being a fan or a supporter of them at the betting windows. Their form can switch on a weekly basis, with no reason that a person would ever be able to forecast. It’s random. From week to week, a different team shows up. One constant that remains is their utter lack of clutch play when holding a lead. Already twice this season, San Diego has squandered what seemed like insurmountable leads. On Sunday, they got behind early to the Raiders and stayed behind, losing by 10 points as 5.5-point favorites.To their credit, however, that is the first spread of the season the Chargers have failed to cover. That doesn’t mean they haven’t been frustrating. On Sunday, the issue of turnovers again reared its ugly head, costing San Diego a chance to win.
Still, one should be hesitant to rule out the Chargers. On any given week, they are capable of giving any team a hard time. Two weeks ago, they overcame a 21-10 lead to shut the Cowboys down and run away with it 30-21. Then they come back the following week and get their butts kicked by the Raiders. Go figure. At their best, however, they have major offensive firepower. Rivers, though mistake-prone, has 1610 yards in the air already. He’s connecting with a healthy TE Antonio Gates and has seen Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal step up big in the passing game. Rookie WR Keenan Allen is also getting hot with 195 yards receiving in the last two games. The run attack, led by Ryan Mathews, continues to struggle. And Mathews suffered a concussion on Sunday and is listed as questionable for Monday night. But this is an offense that can move the chains and when in a groove, is difficult to stop.
Indianapolis has been excellent. Before the year, not many people would have said they’d beat both San Francisco and Seattle, a pair of NFC favorites, but they did. Last week’s win against Seattle saw the Colts score 11 unanswered 4th quarter points to beat the Seahawks by 6. QB Andrew Luck was again efficient and has thrown only 2 picks through 5 games, as opposed to 18 last season. He is really starting to connect with T.Y. Hilton, who caught 5 balls for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday against a tough Seattle secondary. Reggie Wayne is still getting the job done and TE Coby Fleener adds a nice dimension at tight end. The running game should continue to see improvement, especially if newly-acquired Trent Richardson can acclimate himself to this new offense. With 151 yards on 51 carries in his first 3 games as a Colt, it has been a struggle thus far.
The Indy defense also seems on the upswing this season. They are still porous at times against the run, as evidenced by Seattle having a pair of 100-yard rushers in last week’s game. But that isn’t the Chargers’ bread and butter anyway. They’re a throwing team and the Colts’ defense has been tough in that area this season. The secondary has been stepping up, no doubt aided by a nice pass rush. Robert Mathis leads the NFL with 9.5 sacks and the Colts have gotten 10 takeaways this season, as opposed to just 2 for the Chargers.
When betting on or against the Chargers, it begins to have an almost-roulette feel to it. It’s impossible to figure out their Da Vinci Code. You would figure they’d be gunning extra hard to avoid falling to 2-4, but since when has that mattered with the Chargers? When they have something to play for, they don’t always show up, before surprising you when you’d least expect it. Even so, they’re probably too good of a team to be 2-4. To avoid that fate, they’re going to have to beat a heck of a team. Working against the Chargers is the fact that Indy has won both of their road games this season, outscoring the home team 64-10. Not too shabby.
On one hand, the Colts are the more dependable performer. They deliver more often than not, or at least play in a form that suggests they are getting a lot out of what they have. The Chargers can be a shining star in certain spots, but they aren’t reliable. They under-perform, they cough up big leads, and can be their own worst enemy with the miscues. Still, there’s an undefinable something in the air that points to a Chargers’ win on Monday. Is that speculative and optimistic? Perhaps, but that’s the only way to bet on the Chargers.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the San Diego Chargers and 1.5 points.
