Indianapolis Colts (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 22, 2013 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: IND +10.5/SF -10.5
Over/Under Total: 46
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On Sunday at Candlestick, the San Francisco 49ers try to rebound from a tough loss at Seattle when they host the Indianapolis Colts. Indy is also looking to recover from a surprise home loss to Miami. TheColts have yet to cover the spread in 2013 and look to be under-performing at least a little bit so far this year. San Francisco did the same thing, but even worse, losing as small underdogs by 26 points at Seattle. They should find the going easier this week at home.
The Colts are a curious case. A lot of what people suspected is starting to come to fruition. Last season, they had everything go their way as it translates to their performances. Galvanized by the cancer scare of their head coach, with the expert stewardship of Bruce Arians filling in--they scored a slew of 4th-quarter comebacks and stormed into the playoffs. A sense of inspiration allowed them to overcome turnovers and sketchy defensive play. All it took was a little letdown and all those things have started showing more, particularly a defense that looks ragtag in certain spots. At the same time, giving up 41 points in two games isn’t the end of the world. One shouldn’t be so quick to relegate the Colts to the scrap heap just yet. That could come back to bite us.
Expect San Francisco to be good and irritated coming into this game after getting jammed up so badly in Seattle last week. They spent the bulk of the Seattle game unable to get much of anything going. This week will be like removing a 200-pound bodysuit, so expect this San Francisco home offense facing a much less-stout defense to take flight. The problem is that everyone is thinking this and one shouldn’t expect to find great betting value on the 49ers this week. That doesn’t mean they won’t cover, as there is a possibility they will hand out a royal beating to the Colts.
By game 3, there can be some stories developing that aid us in formulating wagers. The 49ers are defending conference champions and opened the season as favorites to again represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They are coming off a game that was as frustrating as possible and need to win this week to avoid what would be an unlikely 1-2 start. And they’re at home where they are at their best facing a team that has looked dodgy at best so far this season, barely beating the Raiders at home before losing to the Dolphins--again at home.
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Then again, that sounds a bit too easy, doesn’t it? To look at this game and say San Francisco is going to roll to avoid going 1-2 is one thing. But to prematurely characterize Indy as an easy mark could be a mistake. After all, we’re looking at a double-digit point-spread here, with Frisco facing a good young quarterback who can rack up a ton of yards. They have looked bad this season so far, but they did beat a rising Oakland team and the Dolphins are a team that can jump up and bite you from time to time--another team on an apparent upswing. Why should we expect them to come to San Francisco and lay an egg? They are also a playoff team from last year looking to avoid a 1-2 start. All signs aren’t bad. RB Ahmad Bradshaw showed some signs of life on Sunday, as did T.Y. Hilton, who had 6 catches for a 124 yards. Tight end Coby Fleener had 69 yards and a touchdown. If those 2 guys can have big games with Reggie Wayne at the same time, this is a pass-attack that could do damage. San Francisco can’t just focus on Wayne.
Indy lacks some things that could cost them in this game. Not to sell the Colts’ O-line short, but one can’t help but wonder how it will hold up against the pressure the 49ers are going to bring. And even though Bradshaw came around a little bit on Sunday, this offense lacks the balance that typically troubles this San Fran defense--like what Seattle brought to the table in their last game. Still, the Colts have a ton of guys, including Luck, who are in their second year and should demonstrate improvement at some point. The coaching is solid and there is good talent on the defense. If they can get this offensive line cemented and playing well, get the “D” wreaking more havoc, and get more balance and less turnovers on offense, they’re not a team that will be a double-digit dog very often--as they are in this game.
That’s all good and well, but the 49ers are in a regular season spot that might prove to be their most urgent in a long time. The one thing is how Seattle seemed to really beat them up on Sunday. Vernon Davis, who has 9 catches, hurt his hamstring and is questionable, as is starting DT Ray McDonald. Nose tackle Ian Williams is lost for the year after busting his ankle on Sunday. In addition to listed injuries, a bunch of other guys just got rocked on Sunday and they’ll need the week to lick their wounds. Still, look for a pumped-up 49ers team to have a good game. It’s just that some people could be sleeping on the Colts.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the SF 49ers to win in a blowout.
