Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: JAX +26.5/DEN -26.5
Over/Under Total: 52.5
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On Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars come to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos. It is a game of historically-lopsided proportions. The 5-0 Broncos are gigantic favorites in this game, with 26.5 being the current spread. Yes, the winless Jaguars are that bad and perhaps rash measures are being taken to get them a cover as they are also 0-5 against the spread.
This is how it’s going to look when a teams scores as many points all season as Denver did just in Sunday’s game. With 51 points scored in 5 games and giving up 32.6 a game, Jacksonville is truly awful so far. That’s not in debate. They seemed to be getting a juicy spread last week, getting 12.5 points against a sputtering Rams team and they still couldn’t get it done. Bookies can’t have a team that never covers. This is a big carrot to dangle, a spread that you see more in the college ranks with a margin unseen in NFL betting for decades. And still, it’s hard to take Jacksonville.
In a game like this, it’s important to gauge the mental components at play. When doing that, there are some positive potential signs for Jacksonville in terms of covering this spread. In the NFL, teams seldom seem to cover these giant-sized spreads. Beyond that, Denver is coming off a draining shootout against Dallas, won in the last second, 51-48. Could they come into this game flat, knowing how brutally-bad Jacksonville is? It’s a distinct possibility. Also, the Denver defense was shredded to the tune of over 500 passing yards on Sunday. Jacksonville, with Chad Henne or Gabbert in there, has a decent passing game, on paper at least, with Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. With 20 points on Sunday, at least their offense showed a sign of life.
Working against Jacksonville is that it’s hard to get RB Maurice Jones-Drew involved when playing from behind constantly. He hasn’t been a factor as of yet. And on Sunday, the Jaguars lost their starting quarterback and left guard. You have to figure there’s a reason why Gabbert is starting, but maybe Henne can do a little better. Gabbert is questionable for Sunday. But losing number-two pick Luke Joeckel is a massive blow to a team that is already reeling.
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So you have Denver coming off a tough game. Jacksonville has no pressure on them, other than the fact they don’t want to fail to cover the biggest point-spread in years. They have a quarterback who has 39 NFL starts under his belt and is fighting to remain relevant, in the event that Gabbert can’t go. Maybe Jacksonville can get a little spark. It would be nice for the franchise if they could hang in there a bit and at least play a little over their heads. Then again, this league doesn’t run on sentimentality. Going off of what we’ve seen this season, it’s not too difficult to picture a constant stream of Denver offensive production and an entire afternoon of three-and-outs for Jacksonville.
Update: (10/9) Chad Henne has been named starter.
But let’s face it, Denver’s defense is not iron-clad. What happened against Dallas can happen to a lot of teams--when Tony Romo gets clicking with all the talent and team speed on that team. Jacksonville doesn’t present the same list of challenges. Still, with Blackmon and Shorts, they can do damage and who knows, maybe MJD can get off the schneid. It’s due to happen. But then, why hasn’t it happened before now? Yeah, Blackmon has been out, but this offense has been a laughingstock and the defense isn’t a ton better. Even with a 26.5 spread, the Jaguars could get off to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead and you still couldn’t relax with this Denver offense.
What makes it hard for Jacksonville is they have so much to look out for with the Denver offense. The Broncos have four receivers with over 300 yards and now Knowshon Moreno is rolling, with 4 touchdowns. Wes Welker has 7 touchdowns and TE Julius Thomas has 6. Then there’s Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker who have a combined 857 yards. Manning has completed over 75% of his passes, with 20 touchdowns against one interception. It’s a lot to deal with, especially for a Jacksonville defense that is giving up 34 points to teams like the Rams.
Denver couldn’t care less about the spread. And even though teams are supposedly blind to the betting angle, teams that are historically-huge underdogs probably know about it and are eager to not fall on the wrong side of it. It would be a extra mark of disgrace for the players and coaches if unable to cover such a humongous point-spread. And maybe that urgency will be just enough to get them the cover.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 26.5 points.
