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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Point Spread - Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, October 1, 2018 at 8:15PM EDT
Where: Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: KC -4/DEN +4
Over/Under Total: 55

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High on Monday Night Football. This AFC West battle features the 3-0 Chiefs, the surprise-team on the NFL—off to a scorching start with Patrick Mahomes lighting the world on fire with his record-setting first three games. But this looks to be a stern test, as the Chiefs come in to take on the 2-1 Broncos, who will be looking to make amends after a flat showing last Sunday, suffering their first loss of the season on the road to Baltimore, 27-14. Who will get the upper hand on MNF?

Hats off to Denver, a team not a lot of people were excited about, for a nice 2-1 start. The season opened with two home wins over the Seahawks and Raiders, before coming down to earth a bit against Baltimore last week. Still, the common-read on Denver was that they were a team in also-ran status, so 2-1 isn't bad. And coming back home where they won their first two games doesn't hurt, either. At the end of the day, Denver still has defense. With some new faces on offense, they are trying to salvage a new identity—something that has been elusive in the post-Manning era.

The Denver offense features first-year Bronco Case Keenum at quarterback and some new pieces in the backfield. At receiver, it's the same old 1-2 punch with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. While both still make plays, as Sanders ran an end-around in for a score on Sunday, they aren't the threats they used to be. We see a bit of a renaissance in the backfield with surprising rookies Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, a pair of big-time former Pac-12 stars who weren't fancied in the draft for whatever reason. Sunday on the road against a good Baltimore "D" was not a spot in which this offense could thrive, as they look for better this week at home.

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The Denver defense didn't make much of an impact against the Ravens on Sunday, following two games where the "D" was a big part of the winning formula. Von Miller looks to be in vintage form already this season and his importance has already been seen, as he was highly-responsible for the Seattle win in week one. And with Bradley Chubb, Derek Wolfe and Domato Peko up-front, they are pretty tough against the opposing run. The secondary was not at its best on Sunday, but Chris Harris, Jr. Pacman Jones, Darian Stewart, Bradley Roby, and Justin Simmons are a solid group.

It's hard to call out the Chiefs for much of anything through three games. It's one of those situations where you're caught in-between what you thought the Chiefs would be this season and what you're actually seeing on the field. At some point, you have to assume your eyes are not deceiving you. Patrick Mahomes has been a bonanza in his first real work behind center as an NFL starter. He threw three more touchdowns on Sunday, giving him 13 on the season through three games—with no picks! And beyond his numbers is his overall vibe. He has pumped a ton of enthusiasm into this offense and is getting the most of his vast cast of playmakers.

On Sunday, we once again saw the Kansas City team leave an opponent drowning. And it seems to help a dicey defense, as opposing offenses are playing from behind and coming out-of-character. On Sunday defending rushing champion Kareem Hunt ran for two TDs. In the win, TE Travis Kelce had 114 yards receiving, while Sammy Watkins, Chris Conley, and Demetrius Harris all caught TD passes. On the season, nine different players have caught TD passes from Mahomes, showcasing their variety on offense. With Hunt, Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, they have game-changers, but the supporting cast is a very useful one.

If looking for a potential Achilles' heel on the Chiefs, the defense would seem to stand out as a possible sticking-point. Again, a powerful offense can really boost an otherwise-mediocre defense, as is really the case in all sports. For example, an offensively-gifted boxer has an opponent on the defense so much that his own defense becomes less-important. Still, it's a pretty leaky bunch and we've seen teams go on spurts against this bunch, albeit after the Chiefs jump off to a big old lead. They lost a lot of juice in their secondary in the offseason and were already a defense in decline by that point. There are some good players on this side of the ball, but unless they at least develop more of a playmaking ability, they will be exploited this season. Whether Denver has the horsepower to hang in there is another issue, even against this defense.

Perhaps being on the road against a more-formidable defense in altitude will have some kind of negative affect on the KC offense, which has been running roughshod over opponents. And maybe Denver's offense can get untracked against a Chiefs' defense that is decidedly subpar. I mean, the Chiefs aren't going to just bowl over everyone they face, right? That might be true, but why would it manifest now? I see them getting the job done in a tough game at Mile High.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 4 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Chiefs vs. Broncos MNF game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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