Kansas City Chiefs (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Week 2 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 18, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: KC +2/HOU -2
Over/Under Total: 43.5
The Kansas City Chiefs come to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans in big week two action. Both teams scored comeback week one wins and look to keep the momentum moving forward with what would be a big win this week. With the Chiefs facing a 24-3 deficit late in the third quarter, they stormed back to tie the Chargers, before winning in overtime, 33-27, in what was a rousing victory. Houston, behind at the half at home to the Bears, kept Chicago scoreless in the second half, winning 23-14.
The Chiefs are one of the toughest teams in the league and not because of their personnel or the inner-mechanics of their football approach. It's about character, resolve, and grit. They never give up. Late in the third quarter against the Chargers and down 24-3, a path to victory was hard to envision. But this is a team that always overcomes. Last season, they overcame a 1-5 start to go on a 10-game win-streak. They did it without the star of their offense Jamaal Charles. So it shouldn't have been that much of a surprise when they reversed form and rallied back to tie the Chargers, before taking their first OT drive down for a touchdown.
It looks like the Chiefs will be without Charles for a while longer, as he continues to recover from his second ACL surgery. But it's time we wrap our heads into what a monster Spencer Ware is becoming. He ran for 70 yards and a touchdown, while hauling in 7 passes for 129 yards. Jeremy Maclin was key, as he caught a touchdown pass, as was TE Travis Kelce, who caught 6 passes for 74 yards. Not a lot was working in the first half with a lot of negative plays that led to third-and-long time and again, but once the offense got cooking, Alex Smith commandeered it smoothly and calmly and they found a way to the winner's circle.
More alarming than the early week one performance for the Chiefs was how their defense was getting chewed up by the Chargers. The supposed dynamite corner Marcus Peters was being exploited by Keenan Allen, before Allen went down with an injury. The absence of Justin Houston was again felt, as the KC pass-rush was coming up empty, with Philip Rivers being allowed to pick apart the secondary. But things gradually tightened-up. The KC defense is by no means invulnerable. You can even go so far as to say they're not that good. The stats will bear that out to a large degree. But there are some things you can't measure that can make a defense better than it looks on paper. They tighten their clamps as the game carries on to its late stages. They can sense the situation and play accordingly, allowing the offense to mount rallies. And when a key play presents itself late, they deliver more often than not.
These teams met twice last season. In the first game, which came in week one, Kansas City got off to a big lead, before holding on to beat Houston in this same building, 27-20. The Chiefs would then lose their next five games. They met again in the wildcard round of the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning, 30-0, also at NRG Stadium. So they've shown they can thrive in this building, as the Chiefs have at times pounded the Texans here in their last two meetings.
Things got off to a tough start in the Texans' opener, with Houston trailing 14-10 going into the half. New QB Brock Osweiler threw a pick in the Texans' first drive. But by the end of the day, it worked out with a big assist from a defense that shut Chicago out over the final 30 minutes of play. Osweiler hooked up with eight different ball-catchers. DeAndre Hopkins was a bit quiet with 54 yards and a TD, but rookie first-round receiver Will Fuller looked the part with 107 yards and a score. In his first game with the team, free agent acquisition Lamar Miller was over 100 yards. It's a revamped offense for the Texans and things looked pretty good in week one. Expect them to get better.
Houston was a little dicey on defense early, but the pass rush started clicking and Cutler was flummoxed. They sacked him 5 times and rushed him throughout the game. Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney were both getting after it. JJ Watt didn't have one of his best games, but appeared healthy and his presence allowed others to shine. And when the pass-defense needed to start producing results, they did so, with Chicago stalled out for much of the second half. But this is a defense that has bad memories of the Chiefs and has been exploited readily by this team in recent matchups with a lot of the same personnel still in place. The defense will need to find its form from the 2nd half of their first game last season because the other 6 quarters had them looking ragged against the Chiefs.
A new-look offense should put Houston in a better spot to sustain more drives than they did last year against the Chiefs. Osweiler looks to be a significant upgrade at QB from last season, while Miller gives them the run-game they've lacked since Arian Foster's health started betraying him. So while the defense doesn't seem to match up all that well against what the Chiefs bring to the table, look for the Texans to be more formidable on the offensive side of the ball.
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The Kansas City Chiefs' offense can be pretty erratic in their form, even within the same game, They showed that in week one with their nutty win over the Chargers, in addition to last season where they had moments of wild success and total stagnation against the Texans in two games. The Chiefs' offense isn't that bankable and the Texans have some firepower on defense that they can put to good use.
From what we've seen, however, it's only fair to forecast some offensive success for the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen some great moments of success in recent years, without ever really putting together a full season of 16 games. The reaction of Alex Smith and company shows the win meant a lot to them, with Smith punching it in from 2 yards out for the winning overtime score. It was as galvanizing a week one win as you could ask for. I think they will carry that momentum into a place they've been prolific before and notch the cover with a good shot at an outright win.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs plus 2 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Kansas City vs. Houston game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
